Anyone call this massive overbet?

[Muisyle]

Playing a $50NL 6max game on full tilt. A very loose and bad player has just lost a huge hand where 3 players got all in preflop with TT (his), 99, and 88, and a 9 flopped. He is now on super ultra monkey tilt. He is raising big preflop and going crazy postflop. This is maybe the 5th tilt hand.

There is an UTG limper and I limp with 88. Tilter raises to $2.50 in the SB, we both call.

The flop is 725 with two clubs, I don't have a club. Tilter immediately bets $60 all in, and they fold to me, I have him covered.

Who calls?

[Isura]

Gross. Tilter could offcourse have anything. But more likely, he has small piece of the board, possibly a draw+pair combo. The board is so draw heavy, and you don't have any redraws. So I think you are about 75% in the best case (A5,A5, overcard bluff), and about 50% against the pair+draw type hands. It's pretty close but I probably fold this.

Edit: Has he made this overbet push previously? What do you mean by he is crazy postflop?

[hitMySet]

I would call with the read you have...
most of the time, hes got J7 or something or a flush draw.

[Muisyle]

It had only been a few hands since he started tilting but in those few hands he once raised to $12 preflop, and also raised one hand, checked the flop, and then opened all in on the turn. Also previous to him tilting he had been raising and showing things like 35o when we folded preflop. A few hands AFTER this hand (so I didn't have this read) he did the same flop overbet push, and showed JJ.

[excession]

It's a flush draw or top pair or Ax more often than it's a set or overpair..only $7.50 in the pot though - feel like a 'gambool'?

[Matt_BB]

With only 15BB in the pot pre-flop I don't think that I would bother. Tilting villian's hand range is massive. I wouldn't be especially surprsed to see any two cards. Even if calling is +EV (and it might well be) you won't loose much by letting this one go.

[djoyce003]

maybe I have more gambool in me than the other's on here, but given your read and the way he's been playing these hands, I think this is a pretty easy call...he's begging to get stacked again, and you want his money before someone else gets it and he's playing crazy and you are sitting on an overpair...easy call.

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
With only 15BB in the pot pre-flop I don't think that I would bother. Tilting villian's hand range is massive. I wouldn't be especially surprsed to see any two cards. Even if calling is +EV (and it might well be) you won't loose much by letting this one go.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's a terrible reason to fold

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe I have more gambool in me than the other's on here, but given your read and the way he's been playing these hands, I think this is a pretty easy call...he's begging to get stacked again, and you want his money before someone else gets it and he's playing crazy and you are sitting on an overpair...easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%

[Muisyle]

I agree with most here that this is a call for reasons stated. Looking back on it it seems pretty obvious, but at the time I let weak tightness get the better of me and I folded, though not before using my time bank and having my mouse hovering over the button.

He showed 79o.

[Matt_BB]

Hello Fallen Hero,

I don't agree. I do agree that my reasoning behind this decision may lead to a very small reduction in my overall expectation. But is that terrible?
I am not at all convinced that occasionally giving up very small positive expectation opportunities such as this, where there is a reasonably large risk and very small reward, will have any observable impact on my bankroll. However, I do think that avoiding certain high-risk low-return situations will increase my enjoyment of the game.

[ QUOTE ]

that's a terrible reason to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
With only 15BB in the pot pre-flop I don't think that I would bother. Tilting villian's hand range is massive. I wouldn't be especially surprsed to see any two cards. Even if calling is +EV (and it might well be) you won't loose much by letting this one go.

[/ QUOTE ]

There isn't 15bb in the pot, there's 125bb's in the pot, and villain is on supermonkey tilt...this is a super easy call for reasons stated in my other post.....this dude is going to get hammered, and we want to be the one to do it to him...we have an overpair to the board, and we aren't getting away from this hand here.

[boogiemang]

i wouldnt put him on a higher over pair just because the flop was so low i wouldnt see him risking only pulling in a small pot with that made hand. maybe only if he wanted to play on the fact that he was tilting and hand people call him but in this hand its just not..the case. but later down the road with the JJ it was the case. i think a fold or a call is a good play in this position.

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello Fallen Hero,

I don't agree. I do agree that my reasoning behind this decision may lead to a very small reduction in my overall expectation. But is that terrible?
I am not at all convinced that occasionally giving up very small positive expectation opportunities such as this, where there is a reasonably large risk and very small reward, will have any observable impact on my bankroll. However, I do think that avoiding certain high-risk low-return situations will increase my enjoyment of the game.

[ QUOTE ]

that's a terrible reason to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

bankroll poker

If you can take variance you don't pass up +EV situations. There are $120+ bb in the pot, not 18.

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello Fallen Hero,

I don't agree. I do agree that my reasoning behind this decision may lead to a very small reduction in my overall expectation. But is that terrible?
I am not at all convinced that occasionally giving up very small positive expectation opportunities such as this, where there is a reasonably large risk and very small reward, will have any observable impact on my bankroll. However, I do think that avoiding certain high-risk low-return situations will increase my enjoyment of the game.


[/ QUOTE ]

In my opinion this is not a very small positive expectation bet...this is a huge positive expectation bet. Hero is ahead and has the villain drawing to 5 outs 80% of the time I'd guess. If you aren't comfortable making this call, then you should move down limits until you are at a limit that you are comfortable making this call because not calling here is criminal IMO.

[mikechops]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello Fallen Hero,

I don't agree. I do agree that my reasoning behind this decision may lead to a very small reduction in my overall expectation. But is that terrible?
I am not at all convinced that occasionally giving up very small positive expectation opportunities such as this, where there is a reasonably large risk and very small reward, will have any observable impact on my bankroll. However, I do think that avoiding certain high-risk low-return situations will increase my enjoyment of the game.

[ QUOTE ]

that's a terrible reason to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

The reward here isn't the 15bb in the pot already, it's the 100bb you make from calling his A7 or whatever junk he's pushing with. That's not a small reward!

Having said that, I haven't got a policy on how to deal with maniacs like this. I tend to let one push go, but the 2nd time I'd make the call. Particularly if he is on tilt and mouthing off in the chat box.

[Matt_BB]

What is the worst hand that you would be willing to call villian's all-in with? AK no club is a slight favorite against any two on this flop.

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the worst hand that you would be willing to call villian's all-in with? AK no club is a slight favorite against any two on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain doesn't have AK of clubs here....villain has been playing crazy and begging to get stacked. My thinking would be he has overcards or a 7 with a bad kicker. True sometimes he's got AA or something, but that's far less than the times he has nothing.