Flopped trips, raised on turn 10NL Stars 3 handed

[udbrky]

Don't really like playing this OOP, but my blind steals were working about 95% of the time. Villain was 32/0/.9 over 31 hands.

On the turn, I put him on an Ace.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05
3 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)
[edit]
Hero ~ $10.50
BB ~ $12.00
[edit]
Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.2</font>, BB calls.

Flop: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif ($0.4, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $0.05</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($0.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $3.55</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ????

[mosuavea]

Fold PF

Stack sizes would help but this is an Ace a good amount of the time so I shove.

[Esmerelda]

Well stealing from the sb is a bad proposition against anybody but a real weak player but it looks like you found one so fire away.

I bet this flop, given his aggression factor he is checking behind with the ace a lot and you want to get this pot building if he has one.

By the time he makes his second aggressive move on the turn I am definitely thinking he has the 7 a lot. Maybe not if I have been pushing him around lately (then it might be time to push) but otherwise.

I might raise and the then fold to further aggression (either here or on river) or call and count on him returning to form and letting me have a cheap sd.

[udbrky]

I definitely put him on the A with this bet. The only hand I worried about were A7.

I just poker stoved a range of any pair, any A, and any 7, and I'm 85% against that range, which I think is what he'd have. If I allow for the backdoor diamond draw, I'm still 87% on the turn.

What hands do you put him on?

[Esmerelda]

Yeah, I see your point.

I think it is close but with his AF I am still thinking you seeing the 7 here more often than an Ace. I sure don't think a guy this passive is doing this with Ax, maybe AK, AQ. This guy called a raise, given his pf stats I think he is on A7s, 87s, 76s, 97s, 75s, K7s, A10+. AK and AQ are more likely on the flop but his betting on the turn makes me give more weight to the 7.

We have a really weak 7 against a passive villain who is acting all frisky so I think this is close.
I am shoving against a lot of 5NL villains for sure but probably not this fine fellow.

[mosuavea]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I see your point.

I think it is close but with his AF I am still thinking you seeing the 7 here more often than an Ace. I sure don't think a guy this passive is doing this with Ax, maybe AK, AQ. This guy called a raise, given his pf stats I think he is on A7s, 87s, 76s, 97s, 75s, K7s, A10+. AK and AQ are more likely on the flop but his betting on the turn makes me give more weight to the 7.

We have a really weak 7 against a passive villain who is acting all frisky so I think this is close.
I am shoving against a lot of 5NL villains for sure but probably not this fine fellow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Youre putting far too much empasis on a sample size of 31 hands which gives the resulting PT numbers.

[udbrky]

I'm really not sure how I only had 31 hands in my PT DB. At the table, I know I had played with him a lot more. His opponent in this hand hadn't been at the table in at least a half hour.

This is a hand that affected my views on him overvaluing a hand, Villain in the hand I posted was UTG here:

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($0.2, 4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $0.1</font>, Hero folds, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($0.4, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $0.1</font>, UTG calls.

River: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($0.6, 2 players)
UTG checks, Button checks.

Results:
Final pot: $0.6
UTG showed 4h 4d