BJ bonuses TILT

[Jim14Qc]

I've been doing bonuses with different casinos and obviously that's very much +EV. The problem is TILT. I usually choose a bet (BJ) size that expects to finish with a b/r above the deposit size ~90% of the time. The problem I have is tilt. Whenever I hit a losing streak, I keep increasing my bet sizes to amounts like $50. For example, I was doing the Bet365 match bonus and grinding it on blackjack. I start off with $4 bets (B/50) and lose down from $400 (including the bonus) to ~250. Great. Down to 220. That's the amount at which I started being an idiot and eventually lost it all.

Sure that was a $200 lesson and it sucks but it's the third lost deposit this week from being an idiot when on tilt.

I never play casinos without bonus, but the +EV is so great I can't skip it. Pretty much I'm looking for tips anyone might have related to this. Is there any way to lock your bet size in the software so I can't increase it? Thanks.

[batmanoflove]

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... Is there any way to lock your bet size in the software so I can't increase it?...

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put a tape on your monitor to hide out where the $50 chip is.

[bpb]

Variance is your friend when doing online bonuses. Larger bets increase your EV. Just make sure you don't ever continue betting once you hit the wagering requirement.

In other words, embracing monkey tilt = mo' money.

NB - Someone will invariably respond that bet size doesn't change EV. You are wrong, search to figure out why.

[Anduril66]

I had the same problem. I blew many Blackjack bonuses by martingaling or otherwise increasing bet size. Then I used to redeposit $500 and bet it all on one hand.

I know that betting very large in relation to your roll is stupid, but I didn't have the willpower.

Eventually I lost my life savings and now I work and play p oker/bonus whore a lot smarter.

I don't think there is a way to lock your bet size in software, and if you need that you should find another income source than bonus whoring online casinos. You can set a maximum deposit limit at most rooms though.

[KUJustin]

Just put tape over your balance.

[Brian O'Nolan]

Just keep doing what you are doing, k thx. You are the reason casinos can offer +EV bonuses and stay in business. Think about how +EV it is for the rest of us and don't be selfish.

[thedustbustr]

as long as you stop when the wagering requirement is met and dont deposit any more, its actually +EV to bet large amounts.

[thedustbustr]

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=726465&page=0&vc=1

[KSOT]

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as long as you stop when the wagering requirement is met and dont deposit any more, its actually +EV to bet large amounts.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true and very useful information if you have infinite possible casinos to whore. Unfortunately that is not the case for many of us these days. I'd rather secure wins from what few options I have left than increase my EV slightly amd my RoR dramatically.

[thedustbustr]

well, thats a perfectly reasonable choice. just realize that in decreasing your ROR (yes, drastically), you're losing maybe 10% to 15% of EV.

[KSOT]

10% to 15%? Jeeez...

[kyleb]

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well, thats a perfectly reasonable choice. just realize that in decreasing your ROR (yes, drastically), you're losing maybe 10% to 15% of EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

At least.

[testaaja]

EV is EV, your risk of ruin just goes through the roof while increasing your bet size but who cares GAMBOOOL. I usually start increasing my bet size when I have lost like half of my starting chips so I go busto or robusto quickly.

[ImsaKidd]

Play basic strategy, dont overwager, dont suicide, and this "tilt" is +EV.

[dzbonus]

[ QUOTE ]
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well, thats a perfectly reasonable choice. just realize that in decreasing your ROR (yes, drastically), you're losing maybe 10% to 15% of EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

At least.

[/ QUOTE ]
While this is generally the case, for this particular bonus the decrease in ev is 6% for a $5 bet compared to a $100 bet. Ofcourse the hourly rates are a bit different as well...

[mtx]

lol lost $800 in a day doing some dangerous "sticky bonuses", then won it back doing a few monthlies....i can't belive i still haven't learned from the harsh lessons of tiltage! don't think i'm EVER gonna learn until i go bankrupt /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[Jim14Qc]

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http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=726465&page=0&vc=1

[/ QUOTE ]

link seems broken but I'm pretty interested. Could you please check it? Thanks.

Also I'm not from the US so I have a lot more casinos I can work on. I have a LOT left.

[dazraf69]

[ QUOTE ]
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... Is there any way to lock your bet size in the software so I can't increase it?...

[/ QUOTE ]

put a tape on your monitor to hide out where the $50 chip is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Priceless /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[thedustbustr]

im pretty sure the link worked when i posted it, maybe the archive server is down?

[Ratamahatta]

If I use CasinoCounter for tracking my WR I put it over my balance.

[thedustbustr]

link is up now but ill copy this ed miller post just in case

[ QUOTE ]
Say you are playing a even-money game with a 1% house edge. For simplicity, there is no doubling down or splitting, so you either win your bet or lose it. Your deposit is $50, and your bonus is $150, giving you a total account worth $200. You have an obligation to the casino before you can withdraw anything, however... and you can fulfill that obligation in one of two ways:

1. You bet $3000 of total action.
2. You go broke.

So say you decide to bet $0.01 a hand (they really let you lowball) for 300,000 hands to fulfill your betting obligation. What is your EV?

Well, your chance of going broke is basically nil, so your EV is just (total action) * (house edge)

EV = 3000 * (-0.01) = -$30

You lose $30 on average each time you clear the bonus, so, this bonus is worth $120 (the origial $150 bonus minus $30).

Now you choose a different strategy. You decide to bet $200. If you win, you will bet $400. Then $800. And finally $1600. At that point, your obligation is fulfilled.

Figuring out your EV is a little trickier this way. The simplest way is the following:

EV = (0.495)^4 * (+3000) + (1 - (0.495)^4) * (-200)

That is, (0.495)^4 of the time, you will win all four bets and win $3000. Otherwise, you lose your $200 stake. Your EV doing things this way is: [(0.495)^1 = 0.06]

EV = 0.06 * (3000) + 0.94 * (-200) = 180 - 188 = -$8!

Your EV doing it this way is only -$8, as opposed to -$30 in the other way! You make $142 off the bonus instead of $120... a SIGNIFICANT increase.

So where does this money come from? Your EV increases because you give LESS ACTION ON AVERAGE when you double your bet. Your obligation is fulfilled when you go broke. When you always clear the bonus, you also always give the full $3000 in action. But when you go broke sometimes, you give LESS THAN $3000 in action (on average) each time you do it. Thus, you lose less to the house edge.

In our doubling scenario, we give FAR less than $3000 in action, on average... since we go broke and finish playing 50.5% of the time after giving only $200 in action!

Increasing your risk of ruin decreases the average amount of action that you must give, thereby increasing your net EV for the whoring attempt! You don't have to double your bet to take advantage of this (though that is the optimal method). Anything you do to increase the chance that you will go broke will improve your EV... since it will lower your average action. So betting $10 per hand is better than $1 per hand. You can fine-tune it to your level of comfort... the more risk you are willing to take, the more money you will make over the long term.

Can't nobody say Ed Miller never did nothing for the peoples.

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