hand range

[NNH]

10NL 6max - Effective stacks are $11.
Sat down a couple of orbits ago. On too many tables, so I haven't been paying much attention, but villain is up a few buy-ins and seems to be opening a lot. I haven't played many hands.

Villain in this hand has Q9o and makes it .40 from CO. Hero raises to 1.20 from Button. Villain calls. HU to the flop.

Flop is TJ4r
Villain makes it 1.50, Hero calls

Turn is Q
Villain makes it 3, Hero pushes, Villain calls.

What's hero's range of hands and can villain call based on that range.

At first I thought it was a pretty bad call, but it seems only slightly -ev. What do you think? Overall, what do you thinka bout villain's line?

[KurtSF]

Very interesting.

Villain shouldn't be in this hand - fold preflop, obv.

I like both the flop bet and the turn bet quite a bit. Stacking off seems donkish - against a reraiser he is likely beat and possibly drawing dead.

AA - drawing to 9 outs
KK - drawing to 8 outs
QQ - drawing to 4 outs
JJ - drawing to 8 outs
TT - drawing to 8 outs
AK - drawing dead
AQ - drawing to 3 outs

Give him an equal chance of all of those, and on average its about 5 or 6 outs, and that's not considering the possibility that hero picked up a FD, which is slight so we won't worry about it for now. Which give him about 12% equity in this hand, meaning he needs about 8:1 to make this call. He's only getting slightly better than 3:1.

Bad call on the end for villain. I suppose he sucked out on you, eh. NH.

[KurtSF]

Oops, he's drawing to 7 outs against AQ. Still ~6 outs and he needs 7:1 which he's not getting.

Also, if you add 99 into Hero's range then villain is ahead, and Hero only has 1 out to a win and 4 to a split, so call it 3. In this case villain would have "43 outs". Even then, when considering hero's range, he STILL doesn't have odds to call on the end.

[NNH]

I just ran a poker stove assuming my range is AA-TT, AK, AQ, AJs, and I threw 99 and KQs in there. Here's what I came up with...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,780 games 0.016 secs 1,361,250 games/sec

Board: Td Jc 4s Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.868% 25.37% 00.50% 5526 108.00 { Q9o }
Hand 1: 74.132% 73.64% 00.50% 16038 108.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, 76s, AQo+ }

I suppose I could figure it out with a small chance of complete air, but I don't think it would change the results much.

If my math is right he's calling $5.30 to win $16.85. Roughly.

[KurtSF]

Really, is there any chance Hero plays AJs or 76s this way here? He's a solid player making a re-raise from bad position. His hand range is a whole lot smaller than you estimate, me thinks.

And, me thinks that is the point of this thread. What's the hand range?