How's your uNL?: 56s

[ajmargarine]

I've been meaning to do one of these for awhile. Finally got some time to get one done. Follow along in the hand. Take the quiz as you go. Answer key to follow.

Reads: Button is uNL's very own EMcWilliams. So, we can assume a decent player on the nitty side of TAG. He knows it's you, and he knows you know who he is. He has been extremely inactive in the last 4-5 orbits. You don't even recall him playing a hand.

BB is a supreme nit. You have played many hands over many weeks with this player. He runs at 12/8/2. He plays pretty straighforward from what you can tell, and you don't recall him doing anything out of line over a large sample. He may misplay a hand or misread villian's hand strength, but he is in no way a crazy monkey, more weak/tight than anything.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $64.30
UTG+1: $68.70
CO: $13.25
Button: $52.85
Hero: $129.80
BB: $129.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif
3 folds, Button raises to $2, action is on Hero...

[ajmargarine]

Answer Key:















Thanks for playing along. Answers are rated on a scale of 0-10, with 0 being donktastic, 5 being average, and 10 being teh awesome. Ratings are in parenthesis. These are discussion starters. I've been known to be wrong in these answers, so comments and nitpicking are welcome.

(Q1)

(8) - Fold. This is best.
(3) - Call. Meh.
(4) - 3b. Ambitious, but pretty sexxy.

SC's are fun NL hands that can win some big pots. But, they often flop nothing. And when they do flop a little something, it's usually a draw. It's better to play draws in position and multiway, so the pot is juiced a bit. You are the SB in a potential HU pot against a decent player. Just dump it.

OTOH, given our read, if you want to play this hand, a 3bet preflop is probably better than a call. We take the initiative against a guy who can fold preflop to a 3b, so we might take it down right there or with a CB on the flop. Remember, he's been inactive and is in a button steal situation.
------

(Q2)

(6) - Fold.
(4) - Call.

Oops, everything just changed. The nit wakes up, and he's probably not messing around squeezing a less than premium hand. He gives us semi-OK odds to enter the pot and we are deep. Folding is probably slightly better, but I don't blame you for wanting to see a flop given the stacksizes. His hand is pretty face up as JJ+, AK. And when we know villian's hand, we can play nearly perfect against him.
------

(Q3)

(9) - c/f. yup.
(0) - c/c. Say what?
(1) - bet $7. I don't think so. Too small.
(3) - bet $11. Interesting.

You flop bottom pair. That's not enough to continue. sc's aren't one pair hands, you need flush/straight possibilities to continue.

IF, and that's a capital IF, you want to take a shot at it, lead the flop. Our read is that this player is very nitty. We think that JJ-KK make up a nice portion of his range. He *might* fold to a near PSB on the flop. We have to convince him though that we have the Ace and he will face future bets from us, and so we can't afford to bet $7. But, really, c/f is the best.
------

(Q4)

(3) - c/c
(2) - c/r
(10) - bet

Well, we got lucky. He checked behind on the flop. We know he's either slowplaying, or more than likely he's got a hand like JJ-KK and looking to get to showdown, but should look us up for one bet. These types of players will check down KK on an A hi flop, so bet it and get some value with your trips.
------

(Q5)

(3) - c/c
(9) - bet smallish
(7) - bet nearing pot

We have to put him on a hand (range). He's playing the hand exactly like he's got a scared QQ or something similar. We can't count on him to bet, as he checks behind with that hand 100% of the time given the action. Betting big isn't bad, but something around 1/2 pot has the best chance of getting looked up.
------

(Q6)

(4) - Call
(7) - Fold

What the heck is this? Out of the blue from a nit! In these instances you have to go thru the hand, step by step, and try to figure out what he's playing like this. Hero has $92 to call. Pot is $166. So this is a major decision at NL50 that'll make a big impact on your day at the tables. The betting is huge for NL50 and it would take serious cajones for him to be bluffing, and you don't think he's capable of that.

First, what are we repping to him? At the least we are repping a pair of aces. So his push on the river says he can beat a pair of aces, because really, we shouldn't think he's messing around with us for two buy-ins.

We know he's a nit. His PF 3betting range is probably JJ+, AK. We can throw in another random hand to that because I'm sure he makes an occasional move. Does he misread us enough to push with JJ-KK? No, he might fold those or call with them on the river. Does he have AK? Putting us on a weaker ace? Well, he didn't bet the flop and AK may raise us on the turn, may minraise the river, or may call on the river. It *might* be AK I suppose, and he's grossly misplaying it for a nit. AK is the only hand we beat that he might play this way.

And what about the big one: AA. Drawless flop in a reraised pot, he checks behind the flop after he hits top set. He makes a boat on the turn, no need to raise our bet now. And now boom, a big river raise after we throw out a bet. Note also his pf reraise is slightly smaller than normal, which is often a hand that doesn't want to lose customers. It looks alot like AA. Alot. Can we trust ourself to make this laydown? IMO, folding is better than calling here. Couldn't you see yourself playing AA exactly like this?

---------

Results: Hero called, Villian shows AA, gg, and he scoops the pot. Thanks for playing along.

[KurtSF]

NH. I folded to the blind steal, folded to the BB's resteal/squeze, and folded on the end to the boat. Weak/tight much? I think I got everything else wrong, but at least I got the $100 question right, lol.

Nice post!

[Low_Card2]

yeah, very nice post. Thanks

[trontron]

nice post

[acidca]

I think a lot can be said for leading $11 on the flop, though I would rarely do it

[kitaristi0]

Full points woohoo.

I don't like leading the flop much. In my experience at least a lot of nits wait all day for KK and then get stubborn with it and just won't fold to a flop bet.

Whether to call the squeeze preflop is pretty close, but OOP I would probably fold it. In position I call every time.

Relatively easy fold to a river push.

[True]

AJ, c/c the flop = money, although c/ring is pretty hot too. Depends how villain plays.

betting is meh, and is a semi-bluff

also I think calling vs the nits re-raise is ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ given how deep we are

[checkmate36]

Thanks for taking the time.

I suck but Im getting better. I voted bet $7 on the flop. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Better to mess up in this post than at the table.

[jk1986]

Ty for the effort, but IMO this is a fairly standard hand that you shouldn't EVER consider playing preflop, and therefore a pretty pointless poll, since you should normally be playing a small suited connector like this in position. Just my opinion, others may disagree, but thanks for the poll and your advice on the answers.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
Ty for the effort, but IMO this is a fairly standard hand that you shouldn't EVER consider playing preflop, and therefore a pretty pointless poll, since you should normally be playing a small suited connector like this in position. Just my opinion, others may disagree, but thanks for the poll and your advice on the answers.

[/ QUOTE ]

= learn to get better then

[VorShot]

The only question i got wrong was...
Hero bets $11, BB calls. Pot is $36, River is Ad 8h 5s 5c [3d]. Hero?


I check/called...but that's because i had him read for AA by the river. I though he would fold KK-TT on the turn.

Do weak tight nits refuse to drop KK-TT?

[Dilznoofus]

True:

Calling the preflop squeeze can't be as +EV as you seem to think it is. That was the only part of the quiz I wasn't sure about, because as much as I would like to take a shot against a guy this deep with this hand, it really isn't likely I'm going to outdraw him AND get him to put a lot of money in postflop with the worst hand often enough to justify calling preflop. There's no formula that we can plug numbers into to know this for sure, but I suspect folding preflop is best, and even if calling is best it's gotta be closer than you're suggesting.

[Dilznoofus]

Also,

[ QUOTE ]
betting is meh, and is a semi-bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure everyone knows a pair of fives isn't the best hand on the flop. Not sure why you said this.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
True:

Calling the preflop squeeze can't be as +EV as you seem to think it is. That was the only part of the quiz I wasn't sure about, because as much as I would like to take a shot against a guy this deep with this hand, it really isn't likely I'm going to outdraw him AND get him to put a lot of money in postflop with the worst hand often enough to justify calling preflop. There's no formula that we can plug numbers into to know this for sure, but I suspect folding preflop is best, and even if calling is best it's gotta be closer than you're suggesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

tbh it's not really a squeeze. We make 2 pair / Flush / Straight, nit = busto.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
= learn to get better then

[/ QUOTE ]

One way to do that is to learn to distinguish the opinionated from the wise.

You really see this as a clear preflop call, both of the steal-raise and the reraise?

I couldn't really get into the poll after my first three answers were "Fold", "Fold", and "possibly bet but probably check/fold."

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
We make 2 pair / Flush / Straight, nit = busto.

[/ QUOTE ]
Depends on how careful/weak-tight the nit is. You'll probably make your hand on the turn at the earliest, so you have fewer rounds to extract value with a made hand. And for all you know KK might be totally scared off on an ace-high flop and lay you no implied odds.

For 65s to outdraw JJ-AA you have to get very lucky. You don't get lucky often enough for the implied odds to be worth it. Small pairs, maybe, but even then I pay too much to chase them.

I would be surprised if you have long-term numbers showing that you play SCs profitably if you play like this.

[Dilznoofus]

[ QUOTE ]
tbh it's not really a squeeze. We make 2 pair / Flush / Straight, nit = busto.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like a squeeze. We assume it's not because this nit would never make a squeeze play, but for the purpose of discussion the label works.

Your position is simplistic and overly optimistic IMHO. I see nitty players lay down big pairs all the time to heavy postflop action when a flush hits or the flop comes connected low cards. Plus a significant portion of the time the nit will have QQ and will fold on ace/king flops. This sounds good if we want to start bluffing him, except the whole point of putting all this money in preflop is to bust him, not to make him lay down.

[Archon_Wing]

Oh crap, I forgot we were in sb. Failed. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[AKQJ10]

Man, folding that river getting about 9:5 seems intuitively, outrageously wrong. You've played an implied odds hand. You've made a hand that can beat a big pair.

But I can't find fault in your logic. Maybe your flop check convinced him that KK is a monster here? Harrington's Law says people bluff 10% of the time just because they like to bluff, but that doesn't fit this guy's profile.

I just can't find a way that it's not AA, and yet putting someone on flopped top set seems so limited that I still feel it's wrong to fold trips here. I'm certain I call here at the table, and also certain that 95% of my opponents call when I have the AA so I'm not losing too much. Tough but very didactic hand.

Interestingly, the hand is different in many ways if the flopped ace is a king. Now AA is an entirely plausible (albeit misplayed) hand and I think you have an easy call. The same's even more true if the board has an ace and king by the river.

[kitaristi0]

[ QUOTE ]
AJ, c/c the flop = money, although c/ring is pretty hot too. Depends how villain plays.

betting is meh, and is a semi-bluff

also I think calling vs the nits re-raise is ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ given how deep we are

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about check/raising for a second. It's definitely better than betting out. Get a bet out of KK-JJ before making them fold.

I'm not completely convinced by your c/c = money statement. Can you elaborate on that?

[riverfish1]

[ QUOTE ]
NH. I folded to the blind steal, folded to the BB's resteal/squeze, and folded on the end to the boat. Weak/tight much? I think I got everything else wrong, but at least I got the $100 question right, lol.

Nice post!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but that question can be avoided by getting the $1.75 question right and outright folding preflop.

[RAHZero]

My responses:

Q1: Fold. I don't mind playing suited connectors for a single raise, but there are a few factors that make this a very standard muck. One, we're OOP. This is huge. Playing OOP with speculative hands like low suited connectors is tough, because for the most part we're looking at flopping draws. Playing draws OOP against a good PF raiser (more on that next) is the anti-nuts. Two, we're against a good player. I'd prefer to stay out of his way with hands like this. Better players are less likely to pay us off when our hands connect, so implied odds go down. Couple that with us being OOP, and our hand isn't looking so hot. Third, BB is a nit and isn't likely to contribute any dead money here. Seems like a pretty easy fold.

Q2: Very close. Now that we've called, we're getting 2.5:1 immediate odds, and the better player OTB has folded, leaving us heads up against the nit. We can likely narrow him to a very tight range, which means we might have a shot at taking a big pot off him, while if we miss, we're not likely to lose too much. With stacks so deep, I like our implied odds here, so I'll see a flop.

Q3: Not exactly the type of flop we wanted to see. Bottom pair, backdoor draws. There are a lot of different ways to play this, and none of the reasonable ones are necessarily wrong. We can't be sure of villain's strength given the flop. He could have AA and be sitting on the nuts, he could have a scared KK/QQ, or he could have a solid AK. Given his nittiness, I'd weight his range toward the big PPs. So we might be able to move him off his hand. However, we'll likely have to risk a lot to do so, and we'll often end up just getting pwned by AA. I check/fold here.

Q4: He checked flop and we hit a money card on the turn. Given his flop check, I'm gonna throw AK out right now. I can't see a player with AK checking that flop, especially a straight-forward nit. Looks like either a scared KK/QQ, or a monster AA hoping to trap. We have to lead out here, expecting to get value from KK/QQ.

Q5: One where I think the key is off. I don't see the negative freeroll as clearly in effect here. Yes, he checks behind hands that we beat and bets the one hand that clearly beats us (AA). However, I think he's FAR more likely to bet KK/QQ then call a bet if he's a nit. We've shown strength on the turn, and he said he has a hand (whether it's a monster or not remains to be seen). If we bet again on the river, we're basically saying we have at least an ace, or think that he'll fold to continued aggression. By checking this river, we make it look like our turn bet was just a stab. Yes, he does check behind KK/QQ a good amount of the time, but I also think that a nit folds here with those hands a lot, while he'll bet a small amount of the time. By check-calling this river, we get more value out of hands we beat (IMO), and save money the times we're beaten by AA.

Q6: This deep, I think this is a very, very easy fold. By this point, I've put him on AA, KK, or QQ, since a nit pretty much never plays AK this way. If stacks were just 100 BBs, then this would have to be a call given our pot odds, but given how deep we are, I can lay this down no problem. Our read on villain is that he's a nit, and he's only likely to get more nittish sitting on his big stack. For him to make an elaborate river bluff here would be completely out of character, especially since our read is over a "large sample". This river push is nothing short of a value push, and based on the way the hand played out, the only hand he can have here is AA. I can't see another hand a nit would play like this. Fold, and be happy we didn't lose 250+ BBs.

[bsheck]

Q1: Seems like an easy fold to me. If I'm on the button and the CO raised, I'd call in position with this hand. But here being OOP against a decent player I'd let this go.

Q2: Getting 2.5:1 and closing the action (and considering $ behind) I'd go ahead and call. I'll accept being out of position against this player and knowing I'm almost certianly up against a premium hand.

Q3: Check/fold. Bottom pair was not what I was looking for. I'd fold to any reasonable bet.

Q4: Okay, now I make trips. When villian checked behind it really looks like KK,QQ,JJ,TT (maybe KQ but less likely with because he reraised preflop). I'd think he would want to show this hand down cheaply, so a check-raise probably would not work. I must do the bidding myself. I agree with the $11 bet.

Q5: Now that he called it looks like he has the pocket pair. I would make a small value bet here. I don't want to blow him out of the water, so I'd probably bet $18, half the pot.

Q6: This is bad news. Now it really looks like AA. He's not sophisticated enough to play AK this way. Since he's very unlikely to bluff, this is a pretty easy fold. You have to realize when your hand (no matter how good it is) becomes a bluff catcher. It'll make your decision easier.

[orange]

PF is a fold both times. Its definitely either a fold or 3-bet PF, calling is horrendous for many many reasons. Calling the RR OOP vs a nit is atrocious.

Flop is a definite c/f, given how we got there.

The turn is debatable. I think betting is best here, but checking is not as bad.
-we arent going to gain much value vs KK (2 streets of value is doubtful), MOST villan's at this level will bet the flop with AK (though this villan may not even RR pf with this hand) and as absurdly as it sounds, I'm singling his range to either QQ+. Vs those three ranges, I think we only gain 1 street of value, and lose more vs. AA. Vs. AK, I'm not even sure that hand is in his RR-ing range, though I would think that AK typically bets the flop. We have no read that villan is tricky at all, so I think we can generally rule AK out.

set and not raising (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=5690032&page=0&fpart=1&v c=1&nt=4)

here is a thread sortve like this one, though the situation is fairly different. Still, the concepts are the same. I am still not sold on betting both the turn and river here.

[ama0330]

I c/c the flop here, I mean tbh this whole hand is so marginal OOP but in a vaccum, given we are 200BB deep and we have some fantastic backdoor outs, I'd like a float. You'll get every non ace hand thinking about slowing down and like I said, we have some great redraws. I'd never do it 100BB deep but given that our villain has such a narrow range, I think a c/c could be good on this flop whilst the pot is relatively small compared to stack sizes.

[ASPoker8]

only read first post

fold
fold
c/f
bet 11
bet 15-25
easy fold

[Oranzith]

this would have been MUCH more interesting if it had been as I had somehow first read it.

5/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gif on A/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif ... I was one of those c/c people assuming the above hand. Still, great post.

[Triggerle]

I missed the stack sizes. I would like to change my call on the river to a fold.

[ettorek]

I'd have 3bet preflop, folded when the BB raiseed, and keeping bet till the river where, of course, I'd been stacked /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Amazing how the heat of the moment can force to be less deductive: maybe this post can help me to fix another leak, thanks!

Nice post and really interesting way to replay an hand.

[Sir Winalot]

Meh, missed 3 points in the last Q. I didn't notice we're that deep, but still I don't think river is an easy fold with the read. IMO he can very well have AK here. I still think it's a close call, but that's just me.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh, missed 3 points in the last Q. I didn't notice we're that deep, but still I don't think river is an easy fold with the read. IMO he can very well have AK here. I still think it's a close call, but that's just me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its really unlikely that a nit would commit that much money with AK, but a high one pair hand (JJ+) could be likely. Still, given the nittiness of the villain and the "huge" pot size, you need to put villain on a pretty giant hand.

[Antinome]

AJ-

If you bet 11 on the flop (and I would 100% of the time)
Then by the river the pot is way too big to fold.

pot is 36 on the miracle turn, bet 25. I expect KK- to fold here, getting value from AK, losing to AA (and that's a good deal given their relative frequencies). If he calls the pot is 86 on the river, I only have ~86 left, so I'm calling off my stack here with a c/c, or value betting all in. One or the other, never folding.

[Antinome]

[ QUOTE ]
only read first post

fold
fold
c/f
bet 11
bet 15-25
easy fold

[/ QUOTE ]

How can this be an easy fold getting 2:1?

the break even point is 1/(2+1) or 1/3, 33%. He only has to have AK or worse a third of the time to call of your stack.

This might be an easy fold if you don't bet flop and turn, but once you get the pot to the size of your remaining stack... even though the betting has narrowed his range I can't believe it narrows it that much.

[BoozeHound]

You really think a nit shoves for this much money with AK or worse more than 1/3 of the time? Even when he has AK, I'd say a nit calls 80%+ without a read that says otherwise.

[King Spew]

I folded PF.... both times to a nit and good player. As someone said, I prefer to play the good players in position where I MIGHT get value on hidden monsters. OOP, what good player is gunna play along?
In villain's eye after the flop and you check..... she puts you on a smallish pair/SCs with your PF call. Now after you bet the turn giving you possible boat, (unlikely maybe, but still HUGELY in your potential range) what NIT is spewing her stack? Really?

Also, I think the flop check by villain revealed her hand. Monster or trash. A NIT's AK, KK-99 gets bet here maybe a little more than 100% /images/graemlins/smile.gif <font color="blue">(I do have a question tho..... does NIT BB raise PF w/ 77-22 ? or TT-77 more likely???? I just don't know.)</font>

I think AJ's reasoning for putting villain on AA w/ the river push to be accurate. I just can't see a nitty villain doing Harrington's 10% bluff in this spot. TOO much beats KK,QQ for her to bluff off a large stack. AK, DEFINATELY calls river bet. Period. Villain knows you are "good" enuf to play a hand with a 5 in it......

Of course maybe she thinks you think that she thinks that maybe you think that she thinks you are bluffing so there is a bunch of FE..... unlikely.

Easy river fold.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
As someone said, I prefer to play the good players in position where I MIGHT get value on hidden monsters.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which reminds me of the answer to an important question that somehow didn't make it on here:

A. Change tables

What on earth are you doing in a game with a good 2+2er to your right and a nit to your left? Can't you find a better NL50 game, or are there some really bad players in the other three seats? If the latter, then at least wait to play pots against them!

That's a bit less urgent of course is if the nit is either weak-tight or overvalues overpairs, but as already discussed you want to be playing small pairs here, not flop-drawing hands.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
Ty for the effort, but IMO this is a fairly standard hand that you shouldn't EVER consider playing preflop, and therefore a pretty pointless poll

[/ QUOTE ]
Damn...40% of posters got the first 2 questions "wrong" so either they learned something or disagree and can make their points so someone learns something.

The river action is my own personal leak so I liked that part in particular.

Thanks AJ.

[Grunch]

Q1: IMO calling is the worst play, but by a wider margain. I'd much prefer winning the pot preflop to playing a draw OOP against a nit who probably won't pay off. In fact my first choice is to 3bet a player like this because I think they will usually fold to the heat. I'd rank 3bet at 8, fold at 6, call at 1-2.

Q2: OK, this is actually close, but I think it's a call before it's a fold. If our range is right (JJ+/AK) we're a 2.5:1 dog, and that's what the pot is laying, which makes this neutral. Being OOP costs us some, but we could also be wrong in our range. The more wrong we are in our read, the more we tend to have better odds. Plus there will be at least a few occasions where we will be able to take this pot away somewhere along the lines when everyone is marginal, so I'm calling this.

Q3: Extremely dangerous flop, given opponent's range. Making any move which represents the Ace is pure madness. We'd have to be extraordinarily stupid to think this is a good time to make a move. Great example of when to not CB. Clear check-fold.

Q4: I prefer check-call. If we lead and he has one of his weaker hands, he could pop the hatch. At this point I think our best chance of getting money is letting the opponent believe we dont have a 5, and try to get a few bucks on the river. If we're lucky our ploy will get him to overvalue JJ so the river can go bet-raise-call. That's our best result.

Leading is more than fine though. Nothing wrong with betting this turn at all.

Q5: There are only two possibilities. AA or AK. If he has AK, it's because he is overvaluing his hand. That this is NL50, the chances are better that he has AK. Conversely, because he is a supreme nit, the chances he's overvaluing AK are worse. At the end of the day I think his nittiness outweighs his rookieness, and this becomes a fold.

I love these quizzes!

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
Get a bet out of KK-JJ before making them fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting the 2nd best hand with very little equity to fold is why CR is a bad play.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a fairly standard hand that you shouldn't EVER consider playing preflop, and therefore a pretty pointless poll

[/ QUOTE ]

This attitute, and a rigid adherence to it which blinds you to other ideas, will keep you at your current limit forever.

Other smart people (like AJ) actually do think about these things, and you would benefit from networking your brain with thiers.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
AJ, c/c the flop = money

[/ QUOTE ]

True, in the context of this thread (passive NL50 games, uber nits) IMO this isn't, erm... True. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[ASPoker8]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
only read first post

fold
fold
c/f
bet 11
bet 15-25
easy fold

[/ QUOTE ]

How can this be an easy fold getting 2:1?

the break even point is 1/(2+1) or 1/3, 33%. He only has to have AK or worse a third of the time to call of your stack.

This might be an easy fold if you don't bet flop and turn, but once you get the pot to the size of your remaining stack... even though the betting has narrowed his range I can't believe it narrows it that much.

[/ QUOTE ]


What is extreme nit 3betting PF, checking on the flop, c/c'ing turn, and re-shoving river?

He can't have AK, do you see why?

[Dilznoofus]

[ QUOTE ]
Q2: OK, this is actually close, but I think it's a call before it's a fold. If our range is right (JJ+/AK) we're a 2.5:1 dog, and that's what the pot is laying, which makes this neutral. Being OOP costs us some, but we could also be wrong in our range. The more wrong we are in our read, the more we tend to have better odds. Plus there will be at least a few occasions where we will be able to take this pot away somewhere along the lines when everyone is marginal, so I'm calling this

[/ QUOTE ]

The Grunch,

Good posts, but isn't it wrong to say we should call because we're only a 2.5:1 dog against his range? Those would be our odds if all the community cards were dealt out together after we call the preflop raise. But we're only paying to see 3 cards, after which we'll face more bets, and we're surely worse than 2.5:1 to outdraw him on the flop alone.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AJ, c/c the flop = money

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True, in the context of this thread (passive NL50 games, uber nits) IMO this isn't, erm... True. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

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we can do the betting, passivity doesn't matter.

[crookdimwit]

Hmmm... I did great in 1-5, but clanged on #6, opting to call with my trips. Which seems about right -- I've got a good handle of how to steer clear of a lot of bad situations, but still manage to be a part-time pay-off wizard when I get deep into some big pot hands.

I see the cold logic in breaking down the hand and folding the river, but in honesty I think in the heat of the action I wind up calling this and subsequently bashing my head against the keyboard.

[Grunch]

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Q2: OK, this is actually close, but I think it's a call before it's a fold. If our range is right (JJ+/AK) we're a 2.5:1 dog, and that's what the pot is laying, which makes this neutral. Being OOP costs us some, but we could also be wrong in our range. The more wrong we are in our read, the more we tend to have better odds. Plus there will be at least a few occasions where we will be able to take this pot away somewhere along the lines when everyone is marginal, so I'm calling this

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The Grunch,

Good posts, but isn't it wrong to say we should call because we're only a 2.5:1 dog against his range? Those would be our odds if all the community cards were dealt out together after we call the preflop raise. But we're only paying to see 3 cards, after which we'll face more bets, and we're surely worse than 2.5:1 to outdraw him on the flop alone.

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You're probably right. What are the right numbers? Let's see some math.

(You like how I turned this back on you? /images/graemlins/cool.gif)

[kitaristi0]

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Get a bet out of KK-JJ before making them fold.

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Getting the 2nd best hand with very little equity to fold is why CR is a bad play.

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I was talking about checkraising the flop. Getting KK to fold when we only have a pair of sixes is huge.

[kaz2107]

i havent read any part of the thread but i REALY like leading the flop here. the A hitting in my mind gives a ton of FE against villians range here being that he is soo nitty. Id say his intial reraise preflop put his range at JJ+ and AK. and being that he is on the weak tight side i think he folds JJ-KK here almost always. AA is relatively unlikely since an A hit on the flop so i think it is pretty profitable to lead this flop.

edit: i just saw there is some debate on the river and i think it is a clear fold. this looks exactly to me like he is slow playing top boat and not concerned AT ALL about u drawing out on him with a river card. i cant see him doing this with AK all that often and deffinatly not with any other hand here imo

[Dilznoofus]

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You're probably right. What are the right numbers? Let's see some math.

(You like how I turned this back on you? )

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LOL I don't have a clue. I was hoping someone else would figure that part out.

[spino1i]

Im a possibly winning 2000 NL player so if you want to see how one thinks I'll give my answers to the poll.

1. Fold at 50 NL. If this was 2000 NL with similar stacks and the players skill levels adjusted accordingly I 3-bet here like 30% of the time and fold the rest of the time.

2. Fold. Suited connectors with the pre-flop image of a weak hand out of position just arent worth playing.

3. Its tempting to try to bluff him out of the pot but I dont think its worth it as he wont go away with AK or AA and I feel thats half his range at least. Check/fold is what I would do.

4. I bet $11. He defintely still calls with a pocket pair below an A.

5. I bet $11 again. I dont think he's calling anymore with JJ-KK and I dont want to put too much money in if he has aces full.

6. Fold, pretty obvious considering how deep the stacks are.

[KurtSF]

Well, I think its about 19% you flop an OESD or a FD, and another 3.5% you flop 2 pair, trips, or a boat, and another 2% that you flop a made straight, flush, or straight-flush. linky (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=2948434&amp;page=&amp;vc=1)

So I think you need about, roughly, 9:1 on your call to make it immediately +EV. You don't have that here, and likely will never get it in a preflop situation anyway. But the fact that the nit villain and you are both so deep-stacked gives you outrageous implied odds if you hit.

Regarding this hand, I would fold preflop, but there is certainly an argument that a call is good, especially if you like high-variance play. When he misses the flop (doesn't have 2 pair or a OESD or a FD) its an easy check fold. When the trips come on the turn it looks like Hero might've gotten lucky. But when Nitty McNitterson shoves on the end its pretty clear he's got the top boat.

[Dilznoofus]

Kurt,

Very cool link. I've been looking for just that sort of thing. Also I agree that we don't need correct immediate odds to call preflop, but having some reasonable estimation of how likely we are to outflop the nit's range is pretty handy.

[ajmargarine]

Thanks everyone for the comments and discussion. I found the quoted part pretty insightful. nh, sir.

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Q5: One where I think the key is off. I don't see the negative freeroll as clearly in effect here. Yes, he checks behind hands that we beat and bets the one hand that clearly beats us (AA). However, I think he's FAR more likely to bet KK/QQ then call a bet if he's a nit. We've shown strength on the turn, and he said he has a hand (whether it's a monster or not remains to be seen). If we bet again on the river, we're basically saying we have at least an ace, or think that he'll fold to continued aggression. By checking this river, we make it look like our turn bet was just a stab. Yes, he does check behind KK/QQ a good amount of the time, but I also think that a nit folds here with those hands a lot, while he'll bet a small amount of the time. By check-calling this river, we get more value out of hands we beat (IMO), and save money the times we're beaten by AA.



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[Heine]

grunch.

I got a 100%.

And thats because i got the first question right and all my decisions were easier(i.e. there were none)!

Moral of the story, if you make good decisions early, you don't get yourself into trouble spots later on.

[MyTurn2Raise]

wow...I differ on almost every answer
I think the answers/scores are pretty bad actually

you guys need to defend blinds more IMO
Nits and TAGs at 50NL are so easy to play against, it's ridonkulous

you know their thought patterns...take advantage

[AKQJ10]

Well, if you're going to count folding to the steal as 100%, give me 100% too.

But I am pretty convinced by the logic for the big-money river fold, so what I want to know is this: How big a leak is it to call here?

I figure not too much, for a couple of reasons or two ways to look at the same facts. First, as I said above, the non-2+2-caliber community pretty much always calls this river, so I only lose when a 2+2 caliber player folds trips to my aces full. And of course I try not to be an easy-to-read nit. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Secondly, or to look at it in another way, it's a pretty remote parlay. First I have to decide to take 65s to battle against a reraiser. Second, I have to make bottom pair. Third, he has to make top set. Fourth, he has to check behind (or I have to call for IO) so that I see the turn. Fourth, the turn (or river) has to make me a really good second-best hand. Fifth, I have to bet it in such a way that he thinks he can push for value instead of playing his set like your typical donk. (Check/call, check/call, bet 1/2 pot).

Oh, I forgot -- we have to be 260 BBL deep, too.

I mean, I could obviously make other hands that would be losing here, but my intuitive guess is that taking trips too far on a dry board with 260 BBL stacks isn't a huge leak. Agreed?

Although now that I put it in BBL terms, I should be capable of getting away from trips here. When I think of it as a $120-deep Villain pushing instead of calling down in a $65 pot, it seems absolutely like he must have the 2nd-nuts. So maybe I could fold this at the table.

[Sweir]

Considering the very deep stack sizes, calling on Q2 is reasonable and probably the better play. You can put BB on a very tight range, which will mean that when you dont hit you can fold easily, and also being OOP wont be too big of a disadvantage. When you do hit however BB will have trouble getting away from his hand and you can probably get a decent amount of his stack, thus your implied odds are huge.

[dc_publius]

I lead the flop here, hoping to scare away big pocket pairs.

On the turn, I lead again with the hope that he has that Ace. My hand is well disguised.

On the river, I check. I don't think he will call me with the worst hand if I lead. But he may value bet his big Ace and I call his value bet. If he pushes, I don't know what I do, probably call even though I should fold.

[Shaddux]

I think RAHZero's points were pretty accurate.

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I lead the flop here, hoping to scare away big pocket pairs.

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I thought of this--cbetting as an almost complete bluff--but I don't think villain has KK or QQ more often than he has AA or AK.

[AKQJ10]

Even a nit will reraise PF with a lot more than QQ+/AK, if he's steal-aware. I don't know how many would be, though, since the psychological profile of playing weak tight seems to mesh with the psychological profile of calling in the BB with JJ "just in case you don't like the flop."

[Wolfram]

Call the "squeeze". His hand is face up, you're deep, and no it's almost never AK (nits don't like drawing hands oop, they call and see if they hit). I say JJ+.