I hit my flush on the river but Villian bets into me

[crovax4444]

Villian is 44/6 with a very weak agro.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
8 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BB: $50
UTG: $64.75
UTG+1: $102.90
Hero (MP1): $76.80
MP2: $5.30
SB: $64.90
SB: $-0.25
BB: $-0.5

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($0.75, 8 players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $2

<font color="black">Flop:</font> K/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($5.75, 4 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG+1 calls $4

<font color="black">Turn:</font> K/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif [5/images/graemlins/heart.gif] ($13.75, 4 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> K/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif [2/images/graemlins/spade.gif] ($13.75, 4 players)
<font color="red">UTG+1 bets $12</font>, Hero...

Obviously I'm not folding, so, arguments on why I should call and why I should raise (and how much of a raise). Should I go broke here?

[jedidiah4you]

im going to weigh some situations.

he could have a set and was slow playing: hence the calls, no raises.

he could have been on a higher flush draw! or could have top pair and scaring you with the fact that he has a flush draw.

my best bet is that he wants you to think he was chasing by his calls and then land you with a huge bet to see if you think he hit it!

[Kakashi2314]

I think you should raise this to ~40$

[AKQJ10]

Weak AF and general passivity (6% PFR) swings this from raise to call, I think. He can see the flush on board as easily as you can and doesn't seem the type to bluff with top pair. He might have something between one pair and a flush, though.

Against typical opponents and typical stacks, I probably am willing to go broke here. A set or wheel is very plausible.

With 150 BBL stacks, I doubt that's enough extra that it should make me willing to call. Nevertheless, it's enough extra that it would be hard for me to raise this knowing that a push 3-bet would really be hard to call.

[Sean Fraley]

You are not folding this. In the event that you are really afraid of a higher flush just call, but I would feel much better if your raised to about $36.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
or could have top pair and scaring you with the fact that he has a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Villian is 44/6 with a very weak agro.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possible, but not likely.

[ QUOTE ]
my best bet is that he wants you to think he was chasing by his calls and then land you with a huge bet to see if you think he hit it!

[/ QUOTE ]

See above.

[SCBielski]

I smooth call; this could be potentially dangerous vs an opponent with his statistics. If he shows something like AK or two pair then make a note. I doubt he is making a bluff because of his low agrression. Smooth call, holla.

[jedidiah4you]

see i would have to disagree on that i think here you need to either fold or push here! yes it could be dangerous, but he has just been calling which tells me that he could have a set or two pair and is slow playing waiting for the nuts but the flush on the river scared him.

[crovax4444]

one of my friends advocated a mini-raise/fold to raise. This is a reasonably balanced approach next to the extreme of smooth call and go broke.

Crovax

[AKQJ10]

You're not putting the clues together coherently.

Slowplay set or two pair... yes, that's true, bad players do this way too much.

Flush on the river scared him... yes, that's possible, bad players see monsters under the bed all the time.

Bet from a low-AF, passive player... well, sometimes that player will get a monster and.... WHOA!!! If this guy fits the profile of a meek player, and yet bets on a three-flush board, it's extremely probable he has at least a flush.

A bet is not a coherent action to expect from a timid player facing a scare card.

Now, getting 2:1 I don't think you can fold here. Maybe he missed the river suit, maybe he believes in very selective aggression, or maybe he has a 5-high flush. But it would be a surprise if he's playing anything else this aggressively here, and as Bielski says you should definitely make a note like "values sets on 3-flush board" since it diverges from his statistical profile.

[AKQJ10]

With $50 behind after a minraise, you're going to face the same 2:1 odds. But it's certainly unlikely this guy 3-bets with anything you can beat and you can safely fold to a push. If I'm arguing he won't bet less than a flush, I certainly don't think he'd ever ever three-bet a straight (or even a small flush) here!

Note that good aggressive players might occasionally 3-bet bluff you. They certainly will make bold river raises if they see you raise-fold here, and you will have to be prepared to call them down. Just be aware of how your table image after folding to a 3-bet will complicate your game. (OTOH, maybe people will interpret this as your bold bluff that got caught, and you can get more value on your river raises.)

[Low_Card2]

[ QUOTE ]
see i would have to disagree on that i think here you need to either fold or push here! yes it could be dangerous, but he has just been calling which tells me that he could have a set or two pair and is slow playing waiting for the nuts but the flush on the river scared him.

[/ QUOTE ]

please, do us a favor and stop posting untill you learn more about the game.

[rael]

This is an interesting question. I struggle a lot with river decisions like this. I think I tend to err on the side of caution, but that's mostly to preserve my sanity. Sometimes I knowingly pass up a small amount of EV if the downside is losing a big stack. I tend to tilt more easily when I make a bad call or raise on the end for a lot of $$ than when I get all in early and get sucked out on. But that's beside the point...

In this particular situation, I would probably just call.

I think there are 3 relavent scenarios of what you're up against:

A) A set. With the smooth call on the flop, turn check, and PSB on the river it seems to me that he could have been going for a check-raise on the turn. If that's the case, then you might get some extra $$ from a raise.

B) A flush. His play could also be consistent with a big flush draw. If that's what he has then you stand to lose a lot by raising.

C) Top pair or nothing. He may have sensed weakness when you checked the turn and decided to take a shot. If this is the case, you don't gain anything by raising.

I'd be really surprised if he had a wheel. The only way he calls the flop with A4 is if they're both spades, in which case he has a flush.

I would not know how to weigh the likelihood of A &amp; B, and so I'd probably just call.

[crovax4444]

Seems like there's little else to discuss. Low_card, he's never gonna get better if he doesn't post.

I smooth called, he showed a Qs high flush and takes the pot.

MHING

Crovax

[jedidiah4you]

i thought forums were discussion terms...maybe i missed the memo

i learn from what others say and maybe they will learn something from what i say...

all in all if it makes you better poker players in the end then whatever...

[buffro]

You guys over estimate these players. They are complete mindless donks playing 50 nl he is betting because he called hero on flop with some thing like top pair and hero checked the turn so he bet the river thinking the hero had noting. Players like this often DON'T see the possible flush or strait or whatever it is on the board. It is possible that he has a flush and it's very possible he has just top pair donks with a vp$ip or 44 at 50 nl aren't thinking what does he have or what does he think I think he has. It's easily a call or raise but I think very inccorect to fold. I would probably put in a little raise.

[4_2_it]

Smooth call. What worse hand will call a raise here? Villain did not play this hand like a set. This is either a flush, TP or some odd 2-pr hand.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
please, do us a favor and stop posting untill you learn more about the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

WRONG. That's not how Two Plus Two works.

Instead, think carefully before you post, but post. If your thinking is wrong, people will correct it. By no means should you take such correction personally.

However, expressing your own doubt when you truly are in doubt is good, too. And you should definitely be reading books rather than only posting and asking others to fix the holes in your thinking.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
Smooth call. What worse hand will call a raise here? Villain did not play this hand like a set. This is either a flush, TP or some odd 2-pr hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not about what hand will call here, but what player will call here. AF &lt; 1 would make him calling station that will likely call a small raise with as little as TPNK, no?

[MegalomaniaMan]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys over estimate these players. They are complete mindless donks playing 50 nl he is betting because he called hero on flop with some thing like top pair and hero checked the turn so he bet the river thinking the hero had noting. Players like this often DON'T see the possible flush or strait or whatever it is on the board. It is possible that he has a flush and it's very possible he has just top pair donks with a vp$ip or 44 at 50 nl aren't thinking what does he have or what does he think I think he has. It's easily a call or raise but I think very inccorect to fold. I would probably put in a little raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that posters generalize far too often in these forums (yes i understand the irony in my statement) about the donkishness of low nl players. while it is true that the majority of players are losers over the long run, that does not mean that playing every hand in a manner that beats this majority is even close to correct.
secondly, no one was arguing for a fold. either call/raise, where i see the raise being far superior b/c of teh fact that almost no hand you beat calls, as mentioned numerous times before.

[rael]

[ QUOTE ]
either call/raise, where i see the raise being far superior b/c of teh fact that almost no hand you beat calls,

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I crazy, or does that sentence not make any sense? Why would raising be superior if you don't get called by a worse hand?

Sorry, not trying to be nitty, I just want to understand.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Smooth call. What worse hand will call a raise here? Villain did not play this hand like a set. This is either a flush, TP or some odd 2-pr hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not about what hand will call here, but what player will call here. AF &lt; 1 would make him calling station that will likely call a small raise with as little as TPNK, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

When a low AF leads after limp/calling pre-flop and cold calling two streets he isn't doing it with TPTK. Bells and whisles should be going off when an obvious draw hits.

You would need to see his WTSD and W$SD% stats to know if he overvalues his holding at showdown.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
does that sentence not make any sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

I gather that author meant inferior and typoed superior.

Geek summary: s/sup/inf/

[terp]

i was the minraise/fold to a shove person. it's a very rare line i use only on the river when i think stacks and relative hand strength are appropriate.

it is especially appropriate against a low aggro opponent with a zeroish bluff frequency. i would estimate that he never pushes without a jack high flush or better, so we don't run the risk of having him shove a worse flush and we fold the best hand.

4_2_it: i am pretty sure we get looked up by most Kx and def two pair or sets. i think the latter two are a miniscule part of his range, but i see loose passive donks play Kx like this a lot, improbably betting the river when the main draw gets there.