NL25: Jacks are not my favorite overpair

[LordTacohead]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($53.45)
Button ($23.20)
SB ($20)
BB ($17.75)
UTG ($25)
MP ($23.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP calls $2.

Flop: ($6.35) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($16.35) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $15.95 (All-In)</font>, Hero?

This seems like a pretty rough spot to me. When villain donks into me on the flop, I can't raise for information, since I'd only be committing myself against better hands and folding out worse hands. On the turn, it's looking like he likes his overpair, but I'm getting 2-1, so I'm priced in even if he's only pushing with 99 50% of the time. Thoughts?

Edit: Villain had just sat down a little while ago. No HUD stats, unfortunately.

[Low_Card2]

VERY tough. I think players at uNL like to smooth call with QQ-AA preflop to slowplay. I have seen this alot. This could easily be A7 though. The only hands you are beating are A7 and 88-TT, so i think i fold

[LordTacohead]

I think your average villain will get it in with TT here, no problem, and get it in with 99 maybe half the time. Discounting 88 entirely, and considering that this might also be a weirdly played AdKd, I have about 35% equity on the turn against villain's range, which makes this a crying call. But it's such a lousy spot that it seems like there must be a better option somewhere.

[Quester]

The turn card doesn't change anything; whatever was ahead on the flop is still ahead now, and whatever was behind is still behind.

Personally I hate the flop call though. If I'm not raising it, I'm folding it.

[LordTacohead]

What do I gain from raising the flop?

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
What do I gain from raising the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Value against 88-TT, AdKd, etc.

My point isn't that I would necessarily raise the flop, but that I wouldn't call. And if for some reason in spite of my better judgement I did call the flop bet, I would call the turn under the same analysis.

[Tiki]

Raise flop.

With the size of pot /remaining stacks, villain might escape if an overcard to his possible smallish OP hits on the turn. A possible turn overcard to your jacks might also prevent you from extracting value from your hand or possibly afford villain bluffing opportunities.

If all the money goes in on the flop you are getting about 4:3 for your money. Counting only pairs that villain may be holding, there are roughly 24 hands (QQ-AA,77,33) that you are losing to and 18 hands that you are ahead (88-TT). This is EV neutral. If we further assume (from pre-flop action) that AA-QQ are slightly less likely and that villain could be bluffing or holding another worse hand then the flop raise seems OK.

By similar reasoning the turn is a clear call.

How anyone might work all this out at the table though is hard to imagine unless his name is Gus Hansen.

[AKQJ10]

Why would you discount 88 here?

Villain hasn't really shown great strength, except by betting into a PFRR. Good players consider that they're usually against an overpair here, but bad players just think overpair = jackpot. He could have as little as A7 and this play wouldn't be outlandishly surprising.

You beat 7x, 88, 99, TT, semibluff. You lose to AA, KK, QQ, 77, 55, 33, 75 (you have many outs), 64. All those better hands except the sets are at least slightly inconsistent with preflop play, since AA, KK, QQ four-bet and calling a RR with 75 or 64 is pretty awful. Doesn't mean it wouldn't happen though.

Unless you know opponent to be a good player, you have an easy turn call. Against a good player you have a marginal turn decision.

Also, you should raise the flop. AK, AQ, KQ have six out against you. 6x and 4x have four outs, though they're unlikely unless 65s or 54s. Ax, Kx, Qx have three outs. 88-TT call or push anyway (they hit the jackpot, remember?). You too easily dismiss raising for information (http://poker.wikia.com/wiki/Betting_for_information), but most people do -- if you can trust the information, it can be worthwhile. But in this case you're not just raising for information; you're raising because you have a fragile hand that desires protection, and the information is a fringe benefit.

I think you're giving NL25 opponents way too much credit here. With stacks this short I'm just getting all the money in and expecting all kinds of pairs to call me.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm not raising it, I'm folding it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good heavens. I'm the King of Weak-Tight, and I think to even consider folding this flop is bizarrely weak-tight.

That reminds me of another thought: calling flop isn't awful, to induce another pot-sized bet from 7x-TT. But why, when you get the desired result, would you fold? Inducing bets then folding strong hands to those bets is really bad poker. It means you didn't really know what you were trying to accomplish with the call.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]

How anyone might work all this out at the table though is hard to imagine unless his name is Gus Hansen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, Gus Hansen doesn't have a great ring-game reputation, but that's a hijack.

You can't work out all the math, but you can learn to intuit it. At the table, think through what matches the betting and you beat: 88-TT, maybe 7x, maybe 44/66/65s/AKs semibluff. And what you lose to: AA-QQ, possible but doesn't match betting, set possible but fewer card combos, straight/two pair unlikely unless Villain is extremely loose. All in all about 50-50, so clear call. I believe you can think through all of that at the table without being a poker genius. I don't always do it, but I'm here to improve my game.

Even if that's too much to estimate, think about the range 88-AA. JJ is in the dead middle of that range so getting better than even money, you should call. The other considerations cancel each other out, crudely speaking.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
calling flop isn't awful, to induce another pot-sized bet from 7x-TT. But why, when you get the desired result, would you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad it's not awful, because this is the line I would take with these stack sizes. Then of course you call the river.

The problem is that really you should be pushing the flop when you work out the math, and I think you're going to fold out 88-TT a bunch if you do that, even at µL. Once you realize that, it seems kinda pointless to raise less than that because you want to signifiy weakness as much as possible to get those swing hands to pay you off when you are ahead.

If he donkbet into me with overcards (unlikely I think) AND he hits one, or an A kills the action, well, such is life. I'm willing to take that chance.

P.S. I'd bump it to 4 preflop to try to take it down right there and/or narrow down his holdings some and/or get more value if he's gonna call with shaky hands, exactly because JJ gets into so many marginal spots postflop.

[kitchma]

This is how I would have played a set if I was villain. Against an unknown I would assume that 88-1010 isn't pushing here for fear that you have an overpair, after your pre-flop raise. If not a set then QQ. QQ is more likely to call PF than 4-bet, and your call on the flop convinced him you don't have KK or AA hence the push on the turn.

[sputum]

[ QUOTE ]
When villain donks into me on the flop, I can't raise for information, since I'd only be committing myself against better hands and folding out worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you call there and fold a pretty safe turn card I think raising and folding would both be better. Folding out worse hands is not a crime /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Smilin']

I like calling the turn. Typical Villain won't raise a small PP, so a set is less likely (though far from impossible). And QQ+ will get 4bet preflop at least some of the time, so the action suggests to me that we should put less weight on those hands. (Also: QQ+ might like its hand enough to checkraise ai on flop. A lower PP might be betting, planning to fold to a raise.) I think action is most consistent with 88, 99, 10-10. Not that I put Villain on those hands necessarily, but I think it's fair to weight them more than the other possibilities.

I also like calling the flop. Hero can't raise for information--any real raise is a pot commitment. Raising folds out those hands that Hero has crushed and never folds out QQ+ or a set. I supppose it also folds out overs, which is OK, but the donkbet doesn't look like overs to me.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
Good heavens. I'm the King of Weak-Tight, and I think to even consider folding this flop is bizarrely weak-tight.

That reminds me of another thought: calling flop isn't awful, to induce another pot-sized bet from 7x-TT. But why, when you get the desired result, would you fold? Inducing bets then folding strong hands to those bets is really bad poker. It means you didn't really know what you were trying to accomplish with the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well hold on, I didn't give the conditions where I would fold. So I think declaring this weak-tight is a bit of a stretch. My point was simply that calling is no good. I like raising &gt;&gt; folding &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; calling.

There are a few problems with calling the flop.

1. You are letting villain set his price for any possible draws he may have.
2. You gain nothing in terms of information about his hand or betting patterns.
3. You are missing value. Calling the flop may induce villain to lead the turn, but what if he check/folds it? I would rather raise here to get value then rely on inducing a bet on the turn that may not happen. After all, we are readless here. It is impossible to know the probability that villain will bet the turn.
4. An overcard on the turn will give us a hard decision. Same goes if the top card pairs on the turn.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
With the size of pot /remaining stacks, villain might escape if an overcard to his possible smallish OP hits on the turn. A possible turn overcard to your jacks might also prevent you from extracting value from your hand or possibly afford villain bluffing opportunities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both very good points.

Re: kitchma:

[ QUOTE ]
This is how I would have played a set if I was villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's grand, but you simply can't assume that NL25 opponents are going to play like you. The typical NL25 set is simple: check-call flop, check turn, bet 1/2 pot on river. Huzzah, you made $4 on your set after paying $1 to try to flop it!

People somehow think "typical Villain" gets away from 99 here. I grant, good NLHE players have to consider JJ-AA among Hero's range here. Assuming unknowns to be good players at NL25 is really a huge leak. It's that simple.

Now, if you have a read that Villain is a good player who thinks you have a big pair, fine. Even so, it would be extremely hard to fold JJ at any point here, and JJ desires protection, so raise the flop.

[Jouster777]

Seems to me that just about every likely villain hand has to be discounted based on the action except maybe QQ

After discounting I'd say the odds we are ahead almost exactly match the pot odds (see below). So this is nearly EV neutral and calling or folding depends on where you think I did the discounting wrong or if you think bluff should be added in significantly.

AA/KK - discount 50% due to lack of PF 4-bet (6 combos)
QQ - 6 combos
JJ - 1 combo (ignored)
88-TT - discount 50% due to should be scared of higher OP on flop and sl. less likely to make initial PFR (9 combos)
33/55/77 - discount by 33% due to sl. less likely to make initial PFR (6 combos)

That makes 18 combos we are behind and 9 we are ahead of and 1 we tie. Same as pot odds.


I don't think a raise on the flop serves any useful purpose. I don't like a call on the flop unless we have already made the decision to call the turn push.

[AKQJ10]

Excellent example of how to post mortem this question. But I'm going to question this assumption:

[ QUOTE ]
88-TT - discount 50% due to should be scared of higher OP on flop and sl. less likely to make initial PFR (9 combos)

[/ QUOTE ]

And we should all learn to play like Phil Ivey. So from now on, I will assume my NL25 opponents play just like Phil Ivey.

[silly_monkey]

[ QUOTE ]

Assuming unknowns to be good players at NL25 is really a huge leak.


[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[munkey]

This is one of those sticky situations for sure.

I call flop, raise if you want to felt a turn but Q/K/A is going to suck on the turn ~20% time.

I call flop and c/fold turn -weak yes but we beat 88-TT and I doubt they'd play it that way by leading flop then AI turn. Then again I haven't played NL25 for ages so am not sure if 88-TT/Ak type overcards will make this play.

[AKQJ10]

Since there seems to be a lot of confusion over just how NL25 players play an under-overpair, I figured this hand is interesting. Villain is unknown, 64 PT hands. To save you asking, short stacks are because I'm just learning to 4-table.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $24.75
UTG+1: $13.95
CO: $26.55
Hero: $12.25
SB: $35.30
BB: $42.20

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($4.85, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">CO bets $5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $10</font>, CO calls.

Turn: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($24.85, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $24.85)


River: T/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($24.85, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $24.85)


Results:
Final pot: $24.85
<font color="#ffffff">CO showed 9d 9c</font>
<font color="#ffffff">Hero showed As Ac</font>

Now you could argue that this is a one-hand sample and not representative of play at NL25. You could argue this, but you'd be absolutely wrong.

I'm telling you, overpair = jackpot. If you flop an overpair, be it 88 on a 752 flop, you have the nuts! You're simply racing the preflop reraiser (who obviously has AK) to the pot.

(Incidentally, smooth-calling the flop is probably OK too, but at these stack sizes I don't think anyone's folding a pair here. As for preflop, I don't do well with smooth-calls so I almost always reraise, but in tougher games I'd very rarely reraise 66 or AJs for balance.)

[Marshall28]

umm ... if u r that much of a nit not to shove on the flop ... make a minraise to 10 and fold if he plays back at you at all.

i think the rest of this discussion is a waste... if you dont want this situation, dont 3bet JJ pf.... obviously this is something u should be doing, hence THIS IS A FLOP YOU SHOULD LIKE!

why are you even trippin about trying to get away from jacks because he might have queens? ... when he could have 10's just as easily.