NL50 6max - Underpair + OESD in re-raised pot

[Triggerle]

Villian is completely unknown as I sat down at the table two orbits ago and have never played against him. FWIW, I have already raised a couple times and taken down the blinds/limpers.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $57.10
CO: $103.90
Button: $23.45
SB: $50.15
BB: $50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $6</font>, BB folds, Hero calls, CO folds.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($14.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $14.5</font>, Hero ??

Is this a situation where we can push? There's quite some money in the pot, we have around 10 to 11 outs if he has JJ+ (don't know how we must discount spades) and are ahead of AK.

[Triggerle]

OK, I just re-installed Pokerstove, which was expired:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>39,600 games 0.031 secs 1,277,419 games/sec

Board: 3s 2s 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.598% 51.91% 00.69% 20556 273.00 { 4c4h }
Hand 1: 47.402% 46.71% 00.69% 18498 273.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }</pre><hr />

I'm actually ahead. Sorry for wasting anyone's time.

[HoldEmNewby]

I don't have poker stove at work but accodrding to cardplayer.com

against A:spade x:spade (where x is greater than us)odds are in our favour 54% to 45 %
against AA (where one card is a spade) odds are 75% to 23% against us
against AA (where no card is a spade) odds are 74% to 24% against us
against kk-JJ (from the above example we've proven that weather a spade exists or not in villains hand it does not play a large enough factor to worry about) 63% to 36% against us

You have no reads so its very difficult to determine if we have much for fold equity here.
For calculations sake lets say we have a 10% fold equity and make some assumptions
20% of the time we win -&gt;$29*20%=$5.8
of the 80% of the time we are called
15%-AA: 23%(58.5)-75%(44)=19.665-33=-13.335*15%=-2.005
35%-KK-JJ:36%(58.5)-63%(44)=21.06-27.72=-6.66*35%=-2.331
30%-AK-AQs:54%(58.5)-45%(44)=31.59-19.8=11.79*30%=3.537

Based on the above assumptions you'd make $5 for every time you'd push here. So the move is +EV as long as the villain is not a total nit and is capable of folding say 20% of the time. The math is obviously not exact so take it with a grain of salt.

Furthermore, preflop is borderline IMO. I'm not saying its terrible but it isn't an automatic call. Getting 2:1 on our money with close to 1:12 of it in the pot against an unknown is not great odds for pocket 4's; its not terrible, but its not ideal. However, if we are calling preflop I think you need to be prepared to push a flop like this to make your preflop call +EV. As long as he has something other than AA a good portion of the time we're good.

[Triggerle]

I don't think a random NL50 villian would 3-bet A/images/graemlins/spade.gif x/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Also, you are missing AKo, which is a clear 3-bet from a random NL50 villian.

Regarding pre-flop. Implied odds are great against a c-bettor in the cases we hit our set. I agree that it's not a dead-on move but on the other hand if we don't want to fold to 3-bets all the time (unless we have AA), pocket pairs are great candidates for calling 3-bets.