NL20, math behind freecard play? (sc vs aces)

[Jamma]

UTG raises aces and only aces preflop, and its minraises even. vpip 21/pfr 0.5 over 600 hands. When he raises PF he could aswell be playing with his cards face up. He bets pot with top pair/overpair on every street, generally goes broke with tpgk+.


- BB sitting in seat 1 with $19.60
- utg sitting in seat 2 with $27.45
- utg+1 is sitting in seat 3 with $14.75
- MP1 sitting in seat 4 with $17.80
- Jamma sitting in seat 5 with $29.80
- MP3 sitting in seat 6 with $3.34 [Sitting out]
- CO sitting in seat 7 with $20.30
- BTN sitting in seat 8 with $23.04 [Dealer]
- SB sitting in seat 9 with $24.27

** Dealing card to Jamma: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif
utg raised - $0.40
utg+1 folded
mp1 called - $0.40
Jamma called - $0.40
CO folded
BTN folded
SB folded
BB folded

** Dealing the flop: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif ($1.50, 3 players)
utg bet - $1.50
mp1 folded
Jamma called - $1.50


Here's my question.. raising in hopes of a check on the turn - how do I do the math? 600 hands is obviously not enough to do it accurately, but anyway, what are the stats to look at? I also realize this would most likely not be a good spot for such a play, but I would like to have the actual mathematical proof /images/graemlins/crazy.gif



** Dealing the turn: 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($4.50, 2 players)
utg bet - $4.50
Jamma folded



The hand itself isn't really interesting, it's just what got me thinking about a freecard play.

[AceLuby]

If your read is right if you raise the flop he is either re-raising or pushing, so I think it's ok the way you played it. You have implied odds (hopefully) if you hit the flush on the turn, so a call on the flop is ok. I don't like re-raising the flop, you're giving $$$ away because you won't be given odds if he pushes.

[sputum]

From your description of villain you have no chance of getting a free card /images/graemlins/smile.gif
If he's going broke when you hit just take the cheap turn card.
The 'free card' type play in NL is often a flop shove (chance of opponent folding plus outs if he doesn't) but if he's not folding you did right. You can work out the equity of a free card play like any other play - enumerate the possibilities and see what comes out.
Looking at this hand again any raise by you commits you to the pot as he's pretty short. If I get time (PLO tourney) I'll work through him having AA and seeing how often he needs to fold to make a flop shove profitable as an example. May not be soon though /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[johnc]

Ok I'll take a stab at the math as I see it. If (a big IF) your reads are correct, and 600 hands is really not alot to make potential stack risking descisions on from an implied odds standpoint (I have found it's often times VERY difficult to get even the dumbest players to risk their stacks w/TP on a flush board vs a caller, just my observation).

Here goes: He's got aces so you're beat unless you hit. I'll assume you'll give up on the river if you miss given that a bluff here has very little chance of winning.
Villain has $21.05, you've got him covered and he'll call your river push if you hit.

Your EV is:

<Jamma> = (36/44)(-$4.50) + (1-36/44)($21.05 + $4.50) - $4.5 = (0.8181)(-$4.50) + (0.1818)($25.55) - $4.50= $4.64 - $3.68 - $4.50 = -$3.54

Your average EV for making this turn call is -$3.54.

Please feel free to comment/point out issues if anyone feels these calcs are off or not correct, given the circumstances.

[Wolfram]

How much do you plan to raise?

If you make a real raise, i.e. pot sized, then you pay exactly as much as you would by just calling a bet on the turn, so there's no "free card" involved.

If you minraise and he just calls (which I find unlikely for this villain if he's holding AA) then you get 2 shots at winning $25.55 (rest of villains stack) + $3 (current pot) for a $3 investment (your call + minraise). Thats about 9.5:1 pot odds. You're chance of hitting by the river is roughly 36% (~ 1.77:1) so you've got implied odds through the roof. But the problem is that this play almost never works. You'll get reraised by aces, and any other hand probably doesn't pay you off. Some timid aces might even call your raise and then fold on the river to a push because of the flush posibility.

Just call for implied odds if you're so sure he has aces, and then reevaluated on the turn. Btw, if you're sure he stacks off when you hit then you should call the turn bet. You're getting 6:1 pot odds and are a 1:4.5 dog so you have the implied odds to call. But you're read better be spot on.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]

Villain has $21.05, you've got him covered and he'll call your river push if you hit.

Your EV is:

<Jamma> = (36/44)(-$4.50) + (1-36/44)($21.05 + $4.50) - $4.5 = (0.8181)(-$4.50) + (0.1818)($25.55) - $4.50= $4.64 - $3.68 - $4.50 = -$3.54

Your average EV for making this turn call is -$3.54.


[/ QUOTE ]
Your math is wrong. You shouldn't subtract the current pot from the equation.

EV of a call: 8/44 * (21.05 + 4.5 + 4.5) - 36/44 * 4.5 =
0.1818 * 30.05 - 0.8181 * 4.5 = $1.78

Edit: Bah! I missed the paired board. To lazy to fix calcs.

[Jamma]

only 7 outs.. Ah and 5h gives him a FH