200nl: two pair jingle all the way

[eviljeff]

villain is 20/12/2 after 200 hands, haven't noticed him

Full Tilt Poker
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
5 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $207
Hero (BB): $201
UTG: $322.90
MP: $284.50
BTN: $93.85

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif ($3, 5 players)
UTG folds, MP calls $2, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1, Hero checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($8, 4 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7, MP folds, BTN folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif [3http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif] ($22, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $19</font>, Hero calls $19

<font color="black">River:</font> Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif [9http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif] ($60, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $53</font>, Hero calls $53

[NoahSD]

Looks good. River is slim, though.

[ikestoys]

Do you think hes betting???

You need to raise this flop.

[deaders]

Raise flop so river doesnt end up so blindly spewtastic.

[eviljeff]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think hes betting???


[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[eviljeff]

I didn't raise the flop b/c I still had a couple donks left to act. was hoping one of them would raise, sb would fold his Qx, and I could 4bet.

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't raise the flop b/c I still had a couple donks left to act. was hoping one of them would raise, sb would fold his Qx, and I could 4bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

and the reason you didn't raise turn?

[deaders]

Honestly as played I think the river is a fold, the only hand this guy could possibly play like this is KQ. You are going to see 66 or 22 a _lot_.

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly as played I think the river is a fold, the only hand this guy could possibly play like this is KQ. You are going to see 66 or 33 a _lot_.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats ridiculous

completed the sb, so he really could have ATC. You beat all but one two pair and Qx and are getting 2 to 1 to call.

[deaders]

Its not ridiculous, you really think a tight and fairly passive player goes pot pot pot with QJ or QT or something like that? I guess AQ is also possible but youd expect that to be raised preflop.

[eviljeff]

river is not a fold

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.846% 46.15% 07.69% 12 2.00 { Qs6d }
Hand 1: 46.154% 38.46% 07.69% 10 2.00 { 66, 22, Q9s, Q6s, Q2s, 62s, Q9o, Q6o, Q2o, 62o }

I realize that the lower two pair hands need to be discounted, but Q9 needs to be *heavily* discounted too. also, I didn't include that this is occasionally (though rarely) a donkified one pair hand like KQ/AQ/AA/KK.

[ikestoys]

passive player out of the sb probably doesnt raise AQ out of the SB with two limpers.

I easily think we beat his range of completing the small blind, and definitely beat a third of it, which is all we have to do to call.

[Jay Riall]

Raise the flop. End of thread.

[ikestoys]

lol exactly what i thought, i just thought i there was a problem with the HH, like the hero was the SB

[kazana]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. End of thread.

[/ QUOTE ]
Also thought of that, I'd just hate to see villain push.
What would your plan be?

[Chaos_ult]

stacking off on this flop seems pretty standard

[eviljeff]

9:18:13 AM sluttysteve: so on that hand
9:18:18 AM sluttysteve: if turn wasn't a 3
9:18:18 AM sluttysteve: but &gt; 6
9:18:19 AM sluttysteve: you'd be raising?
9:18:24 AM sluttysteve: is my logic correct
9:19:02 AM eviljeff: no, he's showing a lot of strength
9:19:06 AM eviljeff: I'm not raising him
9:19:36 AM eviljeff: I can maybe stack a lower 2pair but it's too thin
9:19:47 AM sluttysteve: do you think a 53 river bet as opposed to a 40 river bet indicates strength or weakness?
9:20:01 AM sluttysteve: i guess strength
9:20:03 AM eviljeff: from him on this board, strength
9:20:09 AM eviljeff: there were zero draws on the flop
9:20:12 AM sluttysteve: yeah
9:20:39 AM eviljeff: he's strong
9:20:39 AM sluttysteve: aq most likely holding
9:20:43 AM eviljeff: errr, he thinks he's strong
9:20:56 AM eviljeff: AQ is not his most likely holding
9:21:08 AM sluttysteve: what do you think it is
9:21:19 AM eviljeff: 2pair or set
9:21:37 AM sluttysteve: aq checks that river?
9:21:43 AM eviljeff: AQ raises pf
9:22:09 AM sluttysteve: ehhh
9:22:11 AM eviljeff: if he doesn't raise AQ pf he's not playing it this aggressively postflop prob
9:22:12 AM sluttysteve: i don't know
9:22:35 AM sluttysteve: hmm
9:22:43 AM sluttysteve: i don't know about that
9:22:52 AM eviljeff: his stats are kind of nitty
9:23:01 AM sluttysteve: could easily be pf nit donk
9:23:01 AM eviljeff: nits don't push top pair this hard
9:23:06 AM sluttysteve: that thinks tptk is nuts
9:23:09 AM sluttysteve: hmm
9:23:26 AM eviljeff: it could be AQ
9:23:31 AM eviljeff: since I don't know a lot about him
9:23:38 AM eviljeff: but I don't think one pair is his most likely holding
9:23:40 AM sluttysteve: i'd say aq is the low end of his range
9:23:53 AM sluttysteve: i'd say 2p + set &gt; aq
9:24:01 AM sluttysteve: 70/30 maybe
9:24:27 AM sluttysteve: if he checks river
9:24:32 AM sluttysteve: how much do you bet
9:24:37 AM sluttysteve: if you do bet
9:24:52 AM eviljeff: half pot
9:27:45 AM sluttysteve: if you raised flop
9:27:54 AM sluttysteve: i think you could get equal value from aq
9:28:03 AM sluttysteve: but still fold to sets
9:28:18 AM sluttysteve: anyway wit htop 2 i'd prolly stack off on flop like a noob
9:37:54 AM sluttysteve: i don't know the correct line here
9:38:05 AM sluttysteve: i probably felt on flop
9:40:14 AM eviljeff: hmmm, yeah I guess
9:40:27 AM eviljeff: assuming he calls w/all two pair hands we've got equity
9:40:32 AM sluttysteve: yeah
9:40:41 AM eviljeff: but I didn't want to fold his Qx
9:40:46 AM eviljeff: also there were a couple donks left to act
9:40:53 AM sluttysteve: true
9:40:59 AM eviljeff: was hoping one of them would raise, sb would fold or call, and I could 4bet
9:41:10 AM eviljeff: but on the turn he was showing strength so I slowed down
9:41:36 AM sluttysteve: i think aq-qx makes up as much as 50% of his range on river
9:41:40 AM sluttysteve: aq definitely bets that strong on turn i think
9:41:46 AM sluttysteve: i think i would in that situation
9:41:54 AM sluttysteve: btw
9:42:03 AM eviljeff: 50%???
9:42:05 AM eviljeff: you are [censored] crazy
9:42:13 AM eviljeff: wait, Qx includes 2pair?
9:42:35 AM sluttysteve: no
9:42:37 AM sluttysteve: one pair q's
9:42:43 AM eviljeff: no way dude
9:42:44 AM sluttysteve: 40% def
9:42:50 AM sluttysteve: i think you're giving him too much credit
9:43:01 AM sluttysteve: i'm definitely not scared of that turn bet, river is a puke call
9:43:21 AM sluttysteve: what about a turn raise
9:43:30 AM sluttysteve: against a tag he'd 3bet all sets
9:43:34 AM sluttysteve: gives you a good spot to fold
9:43:43 AM sluttysteve: whereas flop raise could lead to turn cr
9:43:56 AM eviljeff: what? raise/folding the turn is totally inconsistent w/felting the flop
9:44:21 AM sluttysteve: i know
9:44:28 AM sluttysteve: i'm just asking about a raise/fold line on turn
9:44:44 AM eviljeff: no I want to take this to showdown
9:44:46 AM sluttysteve: turn 3 bets &gt; flop 3 bets
9:44:53 AM sluttysteve: i guess
9:45:03 AM eviljeff: I don't want to get blown off the best hand
9:45:25 AM sluttysteve: hmm
9:45:30 AM sluttysteve: how would you play aq
9:45:32 AM sluttysteve: is raise turn fine there?
9:45:37 AM sluttysteve: or raise flop?
9:45:45 AM sluttysteve: i guess top 2 is too good to fold
9:45:54 AM eviljeff: AQ I'm def. more likely to raise flop or turn
9:45:58 AM eviljeff: I prob raise flop