$50NL get away from this set?

[Noslepr]

MP1 in this hand is 23/4/0.85
could i ever get away from this set?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
7 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $0
UTG+1: $21.70
MP1: $83.05
CO: $19.45
Noslepr: $56.95
SB: $69.55
BB: $64.95

Pre-flop: (7 players) Noslepr is Button with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, Noslepr calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($2.5, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $1</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Noslepr raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $11</font>, Noslepr calls.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($25.5, 3 players)
MP1 checks, Noslepr checks.

River: 2/images/graemlins/club.gif ($25.5, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets $15</font>, Noslepr calls.

Results:
Final pot: $55.5

[carnivalhobo]

bbv

[theblitz]

Why the call on the flop?
You want to get all the money in at this point.
If you are up against a bigger set then you are gonna get screwed whatever happens. If not, you don't want him drawing to the flush.

[keikiwai]

flop call is horrid

keep raising

[skillzilla]

raise the river

[deaders]

Calling the flop is ok, if you push the river. Seriously, push that river, just calling is criminal.

[homeslice]

after villian reraises you on the flop, shove!

[kazana]

thinly veiled whine?

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
could i ever get away from this set?


[/ QUOTE ]

No. You lost too little with your boat, because you either need to push on the flop or on the river.

[Messiahkid]

[ QUOTE ]
thinly veiled whine?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, raise somewhere.

[Route66]

When you worry about being up against a bigger set you lose a lot of value all the times you're facing a weaker hand. Sure you'll get stacked by a bigger set every once in awhile (stat is something like 1 time out of 100 you'll be facing a bigger set). But with 100BB stacks I'm thinking mostly about how to get it all in right from the flop.

If MP1 does have a set he played it in a peculiar way (calling then reraising). With the 2 hearts out there I'm raising/reraising my set all day. Another problem with just calling the flop is that a scare card could come and kill the action. If villain had an overpair that he would have felted on the flop, that 3rd heart was going to slow him down.

[4_2_it]

There must be something wrong with the converter. It doesn't show all the money going in on the river.

[op3th]

You have to raise the flop. IMO he has 89 at best there. As for the river? What happened there?

[BoozeHound]

push the flop or the river.

[lippy]

I'm guessing Villain had 99 or 88 from the post and this is just a bad beat story or whatever. Cooler, DARN!

[APipeDream]

Don't wait until the turn to get more money in the pot (or check in this case)...reraise the flop.

[Zaid_Ahmed]

Push all in on the flop and failing this please push river. This hand was played so weak tight its unbelievable. If he has 88 or 99 then you are supposed to lose money.
You're only just over 100 BB deep, this is a perfect situation to double through. If it's a cooler, reload.

[HoldEmNewby]

You should have felt comfortable getting all the money in on this flop. Its wet and you aren't that deep stacked so you can't be scared to get your money all-in on your bottom set. I know his stats seem scary but all you have is PT stats on this guy. How many hands? More importantly you have no notes. No where in your notes does it say this guy doesn't play two pair fast on a drawy board or that he won't push a combo draw hard, does it? You have stats but no strong read and the board and chip stacks are telling you to get the money in. Do it.

[aces_full]

Here's a bit of advice:

The only time you should ever consider folding a flopped set is if you hold bottom set in an unraised pot on a super coordinated flop and you are facing a lot of action. I have folded a flopped set exactly once, and I still got flamed when I posted it, even though my play turned out to be correct. It was Party $50NL 6-max and I limped from the button with 66. Four players saw a flop of 678. By the time the action got to me on the flop, there was already a bet and a raise. I 3-bet and the BB who put in the initial bet came over the top for all his money and the other guy called the all-in. I figured by this point that there was no way my hand was good and I was most likely up against a made straight or higher set with all this action. Turns out BB had 45 and the other guy had 9T and if I had called the all-in I would have lost my stack for sure.

[orange]

you have a boat on the river, do you not?

[keikiwai]

on the flop, mp1 check raised you, he's not going anywhere, push and get the money in while you're ahead and before 1 of the 999 draws on the board hit

[Matt Ruff]

[ QUOTE ]
I have folded a flopped set exactly once, and I still got flamed when I posted it, even though my play turned out to be correct. It was Party $50NL 6-max and I limped from the button with 66. Four players saw a flop of 678. By the time the action got to me on the flop, there was already a bet and a raise. I 3-bet and the BB who put in the initial bet came over the top for all his money and the other guy called the all-in. I figured by this point that there was no way my hand was good and I was most likely up against a made straight or higher set with all this action. Turns out BB had 45 and the other guy had 9T and if I had called the all-in I would have lost my stack for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

You only lose your stack here two times out of three; the other time you make a boat or quads and triple up. Given the money already in the pot, calling against these hands is +EV.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have folded a flopped set exactly once, and I still got flamed when I posted it, even though my play turned out to be correct. It was Party $50NL 6-max and I limped from the button with 66. Four players saw a flop of 678. By the time the action got to me on the flop, there was already a bet and a raise. I 3-bet and the BB who put in the initial bet came over the top for all his money and the other guy called the all-in. I figured by this point that there was no way my hand was good and I was most likely up against a made straight or higher set with all this action. Turns out BB had 45 and the other guy had 9T and if I had called the all-in I would have lost my stack for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

You only lose your stack here two times out of three; the other time you make a boat or quads and triple up. Given the money already in the pot, calling against these hands is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

While this is true, if you put oversets into their ranges (even one of their ranges) then hero has a lot less than 33% equity here.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]

While this is true, if you put oversets into their ranges (even one of their ranges) then hero has a lot less than 33% equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he was saying "against these hands", as in, if villains turned up 2 made straights you can make this call.

RE: the OP.

[ QUOTE ]
on the flop, mp1 check raised you, he's not going anywhere, push and get the money in while you're ahead and before 1 of the 999 draws on the board hit

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[Matt Ruff]

[ QUOTE ]
While this is true, if you put oversets into their ranges (even one of their ranges) then hero has a lot less than 33% equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, I was mainly commenting on the idea that he was "sure" to lose his stack against the straights, which is only true if you know in advance that the board isn't going to pair. Obviously an overset would drop your EV considerably, but depending on stack sizes and opponent's tendencies I think there are still times you might call here.

[Noslepr]

these stats are from ~300 hands....i dunno if that makes much of a difference.
i dont normally play very weak tight at all (AF ~3.5), i just had a bad feeling about this one so i called it down. i definitely didnt put him on any kind of a draw (10J or hearts) cuz he wouldnt have checked raised considering his stats. after re-analyzing, he really could have had an overpair very easily. he turned out to have 99 obviously.
is the river call really THAT bad? assuming he doesnt have the flush, which i explained why i think that, what would he bet here? i dont think he would even bet most overpairs besides maybe AA or KK, he was sooo passive.

[Marshall28]

u had a feeling? ... thats ridiculous.

raise, ALL IN ON FLOP!