QQ vs. a 2p2er

[CappyAA]

My image has been strong. I'm running 26/18 at the table, and I'm showing down only good hands. Villain is a 2p2er (although I didn't know at the time). He is running 25/18/1.2 over about 100 hands I have with him. This seemed like an easy shove at the time for me as I thought I was ahead of a large part of his range, but now I'm not so sure. Thoughts? What range do you put villain on?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $457.10
UTG+1: $224.85
CO: $373.25
Button: $212.50
SB: $355.90
BB: $204.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($24, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $16</font>, UTG+1 folds, Button calls.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif ($56, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $35</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $161</font> Hero.....

[Hoopster81]

[ QUOTE ]
This seemed like an easy shove at the time for me as I thought I was ahead of a large part of his range

[/ QUOTE ]

how do you figure?

I check the turn

[CappyAA]

My line of thinking is that villain could have JJ-44, 87s, 76s, 65s, or air after his flop call. He has position, so his flop call could be a strong hand or a float with a decent hand or nothing hoping to take it on the turn if I have AK or something like that. I thought about taking a stack-a-donk line, but the AF of 1.2 made me think I might as well bet out at the turn as I didn't think he'd bet.

I ruled out AA/KK with the no reraise preflop.

I think checking the turn is weak though unless we're going for a check/raise. This was either a bet/fold or bet/push IMO.

[Praetor]

Fold

[Hoopster81]

[ QUOTE ]
My line of thinking is that villain could have JJ-44, 87s, 76s, 65s, or air after his flop call. He has position, so his flop call could be a strong hand or a float with a decent hand or nothing hoping to take it on the turn if I have AK or something like that. I thought about taking a stack-a-donk line, but the AF of 1.2 made me think I might as well bet out at the turn as I didn't think he'd bet.

I ruled out AA/KK with the no reraise preflop.

I think checking the turn is weak though unless we're going for a check/raise. This was either a bet/fold or bet/push IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

as played, turn is easy fold

with the caller in between you guys pf and his high pfr, I think you can discount TT/JJ from his range somewhat

your turn bet protects your hand if he's drawing (but 75 got there) gets value (maybe) out of 99, 8x

bet/fold isn't so bad, but no way I bet/call vs this guy

[smellmuth]

i fold this turn.

[CappyAA]

What do you think villain's range is? With all the dead money in the pot, I only need to be good here about 35-40% of the time for this to be a profitable play.

[Hoopster81]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think villain's range is? With all the dead money in the pot, I only need to be good here about 35-40% of the time for this to be a profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

boat, 6x, straight

he's just too passive to be raising with something you beat

[CappyAA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do you think villain's range is? With all the dead money in the pot, I only need to be good here about 35-40% of the time for this to be a profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

boat, 6x, straight

he's just too passive to be raising with something you beat

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm - ok, I guess that my thinking was off, and I was looking at this as a results oriented play.

I pushed, and villain called with 87. River blanked and MHIG.

But hearing other thoughts on this, maybe that was one of the minority of times he has a hand I beat.

Thanks for the advice. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Fly]

Cappy,

My pf range this hand was wider then normal b/c UTG+1 was a wild 60/15 donk. Also, those must be a strange 100 hands b/c I can't imagine my AF being so low.

[CappyAA]

[ QUOTE ]
Cappy,

My pf range this hand was wider then normal b/c UTG+1 was a wild 60/15 donk. Also, those must be a strange 100 hands b/c I can't imagine my AF being so low.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it must have been. I actually wondered about that b/c I don't remember it being so low on my PAHUD. I looked in my other databases (I split my databases into 3 month stints), and I have about 150 more hands with you and your AF is at 8.00, so it must have evened out on my PAHUD into something around 3 or 4.

I did think your range is definitely bigger than normal there as the button, which is really why I thought I was good to push there. Still, looking back, I have a hard time believing I am not good 35-40% of the time there against the range you'd push with. Although, what looked like a no-brainer decision at the time for me looks like it's much much closer.

Question is - does anyone play this hand any differently if I have AA instead?

[Hoopster81]

[ QUOTE ]
Question is - does anyone play this hand any differently if I have AA instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

No

AA/KK are not in his range, so QQ=AA here

[Fly]

To those who said fold, would you actually make the fold at the table or just think folding is correct but would never able to force yourself to do it?

[CappyAA]

[ QUOTE ]
To those who said fold, would you actually make the fold at the table or just think folding is correct but would never able to force yourself to do it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in this as well, because looking back, it seems like I'm leaning towards folding now. But at the time, I hesitated for a second, and thought I was good against enough of his range and called.

[anacrime]

I think raising this turn with 87 is really bad. Especially since OP hasn't been out of line and it showing down good hands. I suspect that your turn raise was intended to be a pure bluff (i hope) and you figured OP to fold an overpair. BTW OP, how often do you double barrrell with air here? I tend to never do it b/c you get called down by mid/underpairs very often.

Against a seemingly solid player, whom I have no real history against, I fold this turn pretty easily. I don't think a solid player is EVER value raising a worse hand here.

[Fly]

anacrime,

[ QUOTE ]

I think raising this turn with 87 is really bad


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Against a seemingly solid player, whom I have no real history against, I fold this turn pretty easily.


[/ QUOTE ]

?

[anacrime]

[ QUOTE ]
anacrime,

[ QUOTE ]

I think raising this turn with 87 is really bad


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Against a seemingly solid player, whom I have no real history against, I fold this turn pretty easily.


[/ QUOTE ]

?

[/ QUOTE ]?

OPs Image: Solid TAG who has shown down only good hands (which usuaally means 2nd barrell = solid hand).

Your Image: Seemingly solid player who is too passive and has no reason to think OP is making a move.


This is what we found out in the OP. To me, this is reason enough to fold the turn b/c I also have no reason to believe you would be making a move on me after I have shown down only good hands.

Then, we get more information from you. You said your PF calling range was much looser then usual because of UTG+1. This means you'll call with bunch of connecters, gappers (which makes straights and FHs) and A6s. This coupled with the fact that you're trying to isolate UTG+1, and not the OP, will almost always be a hand &gt; 1 pair.

If you're clever enough to raise this turn with air against me, you'll win this pot almost always.

[blackize]

Anacrime you appear to have missed the point of the bolded letters and the question mark.

How can raising with 87 there be really bad if it is successful as a bluff so often?

[anacrime]

My point was that in my experience and given all the information, this is very rarely a bluff. Sorry if I needed to clarify that.

Just b/c it was a bluff this time, certainly doesn't mean it is everytime.

[blackize]

[ QUOTE ]

My point was that in my experience and given all the information, this is very rarely a bluff.
Just b/c it was a bluff this time, certainly doesn't mean it is everytime.

[/ QUOTE ]

But isn't this exactly what makes raising 87 against a thinking player here good instead of "really bad"?

[anacrime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

My point was that in my experience and given all the information, this is very rarely a bluff.
Just b/c it was a bluff this time, certainly doesn't mean it is everytime.

[/ QUOTE ]

But isn't this exactly what makes raising 87 against a thinking player here good instead of "really bad"?

[/ QUOTE ]I see the flaw in my reasoning. I was stuck on the fact that it was 87 and not complete air and was thinking too much from OPs point of view.

I retract my statement. I guess it's just a really sick spot to make a move in.

[Pro Zaxer]

Considering you raised UTG and bet into two opponents, and then bet the turn, his turn raise with 87 is pretty daring. He's relying on you to fold a big pair, something that's obviously tough to do. I would probably fold at the table since I would read him as a thinking player and knowing all of the above. So I guess he was on the next level, but you were one step ahead of him, or behind him...its gets confusing. nh.

[Loc0Loc0]

What possible hand could he hold on the flop that you have beat? I think fold...

65s/67s/68s, these hands on his range, and you will pay them as played.
TT, JJ he would have raised,

KK, AA he doesnt have to raise. He see's you as a solid regular with your stats. So he has de define his play against you.
Against a good regular i would call AA in this position and only raise in a multiway pot.
Only because it is hard to spot AA now, villian wil get a lot of money out of the hand against any pocketpair above 99

[Osprey]

At least in $100 online,I rarely see people putting me all in with a draw, and normally a turn raise means death from anyone halfway decent. I will probably be told I am superI wrong, but it seems like folding overpairs (or TPTK for that matter) to serious aggression from someone who has not been donking his money off is ++ EV.

[terp]

fly is really good about showing up here with air, some kind of turned draw or anything that beats QQ with frequencies that suck for you. i don't know what those exact percents are so flip a coin or otherwise randomly decide what to do.

he's not a nit and he's going to show up here with all parts of that range i described so you're going to just have to embrace variance and call some game theory %

[CappyAA]

[ QUOTE ]
fly is really good about showing up here with air, some kind of turned draw or anything that beats QQ with frequencies that suck for you. i don't know what those exact percents are so flip a coin or otherwise randomly decide what to do.

he's not a nit and he's going to show up here with all parts of that range i described so you're going to just have to embrace variance and call some game theory %

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought as well, but judging from the earlier responses, everyone else seemed to think his range was a lot smaller than I thought it was. I still think it was a good call...definitely high variance, but a good call.

[4_2_it]

Cappy,

Your hand is pretty well defined as an overpair (or AK double barreling). Any solid player knows this and if they have you crushed aren't going to give you an easy folding opportunity when you are drawing to 2 outs.

I haven't tangled with fly (at least recently) so I have no idea what I would do against him in this situation, but I probably call here more often than I fold, especially against a lot of 2+2er-type players.

If villain was a calling station or low aggro player then folding becomes much easier.