Only Ivey can call this...

[urbanati]

Villain is 49/12/1.6.
Is it standard all the way this deep?
Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
urbanati: $394.80
CO: $134.80
Button: $270.40
SB: $195.00
BB: $429.85

Pre-flop: (5 players) urbanati is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">urbanati raises to $10</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($31, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $25</font>, urbanati calls, Button folds.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($81, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $25</font>, urbanati calls.

River: 2/images/graemlins/club.gif ($131, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $368</font>, urbanati folds.
Uncalled bets: $368 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: $131

[smellmuth]

oh man raise it up on that flop.

[Praetor]

I play it the same

[True]

tbh, the river seems like a call although it's opponent specific.

I think raising the flop is good, but given you didn't raise the flop the rest of the hand is good.

I would imagine the river doesn't matter much either way.

[lassie]

You need to raise this flop. You have no clue where you stand because you played the hand so passively (is this actually a word? lol).

[carrotsnake]

Nah, flop is fine. Turn is fine, river is fine. NH

[Claunchy]

Me too. I don't see a flop raise getting action from much other than sets and big draws.

[lassie]

[ QUOTE ]

Me too. I don't see a flop raise getting action from much other than sets and big draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check villain's stats.

Besides we REALLY need to protect our hand in this spot - look at the texture of the flop.
This is a 3-way pot and we have absolutely NO idea where we stand if we just call this and villain fires again on the turn. The hand gets very very tough as you can see here.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Me too. I don't see a flop raise getting action from much other than sets and big draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check villain's stats.

Besides we REALLY need to protect our hand in this spot - look at the texture of the flop.
This is a 3-way pot and we have absolutely NO idea where we stand if we just call this and villain fires again on the turn. The hand gets very very tough as you can see here.

[/ QUOTE ]

~Raising the flop is good, but you don't understand why

[ZingyDNA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Me too. I don't see a flop raise getting action from much other than sets and big draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check villain's stats.

Besides we REALLY need to protect our hand in this spot - look at the texture of the flop.
This is a 3-way pot and we have absolutely NO idea where we stand if we just call this and villain fires again on the turn. The hand gets very very tough as you can see here.

[/ QUOTE ]

~Raising the flop is good, but you don't understand why

[/ QUOTE ]

can u explain? I think u just raise flop to get value and force out button?

[React1oN]

I think raising flop is 100% correct

[True]

Villain will call with about 100 worse hands, we will learn a lot more about buttons holding if we raise and if the board gets ugly being able to check the river or turn or w/e has a lot of value in itself.

Guy is like super loose, he has bet almost pot so he kind of likes his hand, but villains like this think 33 is awesome and if you raise you must have AK or a spade draw and will enjoy calling down with nothing.

Calling is ok, and given that we called the flop calling the turn is fine. It very much seems however that villain has 2-x (semi unlikely) or a busted draw. I think calling this river is fine but again I don't know villains tendencies.

I would imagine that he doesn't have A-x given that his turn bet was the same as his flop bet which implies his hand hasn't changed or that he is quite unhappy with the ace or that he wants a cheap look at the river.

I would imagine that you are good a lot on the river tbh.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
I think raising flop is 100% correct

[/ QUOTE ]

calling is ok, but raising is good.

[gimmetheloot]

It seems like raising the flop is basically an information raise...

I play it the same Urb.

[lassie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Me too. I don't see a flop raise getting action from much other than sets and big draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check villain's stats.

Besides we REALLY need to protect our hand in this spot - look at the texture of the flop.
This is a 3-way pot and we have absolutely NO idea where we stand if we just call this and villain fires again on the turn. The hand gets very very tough as you can see here.

[/ QUOTE ]

~Raising the flop is good, but you don't understand why

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't agree?

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like raising the flop is basically an information raise...

I play it the same Urb.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, its a value raise

[lassie]

Of course its not only a value-raise.

[hra146]

I think people on here get caught up too much on the "worse hands calling better hands folding"-idea. Sometimes, very often in fact, you HAVE to raise/bet in such situations. Very often the cost of letting them draw cheaply/free is much higher than the cost of having better hands calling / worse hands folding.

=&gt; theres a ton of cards out there we dont want to see. So what do we do? RAISE!

[lassie]

hra146, my point exactly. well put /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[True]

please stop now....

[True]

Very often the cost of letting them draw cheaply/free is much higher than the cost of having better hands calling / worse hands folding.

Im sure I said something similar to this, the point however is, no worse hands that bet are going to fold.

I would also imagine that, the cost of letting draws in cheap is not worth very much

[Claunchy]

[ QUOTE ]
I think people on here get caught up too much on the "worse hands calling better hands folding"-idea. Sometimes, very often in fact, you HAVE to raise/bet in such situations. Very often the cost of letting them draw cheaply/free is much higher than the cost of having better hands calling / worse hands folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
A lot of you are going to have to stop thinking this way if you ever want to be big long-term winners.

The fact of the matter is that 99% of the time there are only two reasons to ever bet/raise.
Reason 1: worse hands will call (i.e. value bet)
Reason 2: better hands will fold (i.e. bluff)

Worrying about giving free cards/protecting your hand is a concept that is very important in limit but not that important at all in NL.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think people on here get caught up too much on the "worse hands calling better hands folding"-idea. Sometimes, very often in fact, you HAVE to raise/bet in such situations. Very often the cost of letting them draw cheaply/free is much higher than the cost of having better hands calling / worse hands folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
A lot of you are going to have to stop thinking this way if you ever want to be big long-term winners.

The fact of the matter is that 99% of the time there are only two reasons to ever bet/raise.
Reason 1: worse hands will call (i.e. value bet)
Reason 2: better hands will fold (i.e. bluff)

Worrying about giving free cards/protecting your hand is a concept that is very important in limit but not that important at all in NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is true, I think you should also clarify this although it may seem slightly different to the current hand :

Let us assume 2 things :

1) Villain has the same proportion of draws as made hands that are weaker than ours

2) Villain will always bet the river (or call a bet if he checks) no matter what card comes if we check the turn and will fold all weaker hands but call draws

If you assume both things (which are generally correct) then checking the turn and calling all rivers would be a much greater EV play.

[GAL]

Raise the flop, read what True said.

When an overcard (especially an Ace) comes on the turn and the Villan releads the turn into you he either has hit the Ace, had flopped a hand that can beat AA or has a draw that will beat at least AA if it hits.

Sice you are both deep here Villans likely PF calling range is AK, PPS and SC, from that range hands that lead this flop are AK of spades, 22,66,99,TT,JJ, 34 of spades any suited 78. When the A hits on the turn and he bets again I would expect his range to narrow to AKspades,22,66,99,34spades and suited 78.
Now when the river pairs the board (which is irrelevant) and he pushes it is either a value shove with a FH or air. For it to be a value shove your hand MUST be at least AK and he must have a FH because nothing less than AK pays him off here. Therefore his river range is 22,66,99 or air.

Without knowing anything about Villan and the amount we have invested in the pot I would lean towards folding, however with Villans stats I would call here and expect to see 78.

[GAL]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think people on here get caught up too much on the "worse hands calling better hands folding"-idea. Sometimes, very often in fact, you HAVE to raise/bet in such situations. Very often the cost of letting them draw cheaply/free is much higher than the cost of having better hands calling / worse hands folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
A lot of you are going to have to stop thinking this way if you ever want to be big long-term winners.

The fact of the matter is that 99% of the time there are only two reasons to ever bet/raise.
Reason 1: worse hands will call (i.e. value bet)
Reason 2: better hands will fold (i.e. bluff)

Worrying about giving free cards/protecting your hand is a concept that is very important in limit but not that important at all in NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which am I doing here? MP limps I raise on BTN to $10 with 56 /images/graemlins/heart.gif,
Flop: 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif $23
MP leads for $12, I raise to $40.

What worse hands call and what better hands fold?

[josh_x]

"I think people on here get caught up too much on the "worse hands calling better hands folding"-idea"

When i read this i thought i was in store for a good post, but alas, you went on to something dumb.

I've been meaning to say something about this; i think people often overdo this as an excuse not to really try and hand read too specifically, and just play passively. This doesn't apply to this specific hand, but rather in general. If you think about it there can be a lot of hands in a persons range, and it's pretty damn hard for them to truly fold all worse hands and call/raise all better. Often people (at least certainly me) often think 'no way he calls with anything worse' and/or 'no way he folds anything better' and just play wa/wb passively in bad spots - the smaller and more fiddly the pot often the more this applies.

I know that when people say 'he folds all worse and plays all better' don't really mean it literally, but i still think it is sometimes overused by some people.

Sorry for the hijack, hopefully someone finds it interesting if dumb at the same time.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think people on here get caught up too much on the "worse hands calling better hands folding"-idea. Sometimes, very often in fact, you HAVE to raise/bet in such situations. Very often the cost of letting them draw cheaply/free is much higher than the cost of having better hands calling / worse hands folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
A lot of you are going to have to stop thinking this way if you ever want to be big long-term winners.

The fact of the matter is that 99% of the time there are only two reasons to ever bet/raise.
Reason 1: worse hands will call (i.e. value bet)
Reason 2: better hands will fold (i.e. bluff)

Worrying about giving free cards/protecting your hand is a concept that is very important in limit but not that important at all in NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which am I doing here? MP limps I raise on BTN to $10 with 56 /images/graemlins/heart.gif,
Flop: 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif $23
MP leads for $12, I raise to $40.

What worse hands call and what better hands fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think raising here is bad

[Chubbers]

If you're going to call the flop (i'd prefer to raise) then you should really raise the turn. His bet on the turn is really weak and the Ace gives you a good scare card for him if he is only holding TPTK or an overpair to the flopped board. If he pushes against a turn re-raise then it's a fold, but i think this is a really good spot to semi-bluff.

As played, you have no information and have to fold the river as played - i'd assume he has 2x and has you beat at this point.

[FionnMac]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to call the flop (i'd prefer to raise) then you should really raise the turn. His bet on the turn is really weak and the Ace gives you a good scare card for him if he is only holding TPTK or an overpair to the flopped board. If he pushes against a turn re-raise then it's a fold, but i think this is a really good spot to semi-bluff.

As played, you have no information and have to fold the river as played - i'd assume he has 2x and has you beat at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow this post makes no sense at all. you are advocating 'bluffing' against TPTK or JJ/10-10?

[Chubbers]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to call the flop (i'd prefer to raise) then you should really raise the turn. His bet on the turn is really weak and the Ace gives you a good scare card for him if he is only holding TPTK or an overpair to the flopped board. If he pushes against a turn re-raise then it's a fold, but i think this is a really good spot to semi-bluff.

As played, you have no information and have to fold the river as played - i'd assume he has 2x and has you beat at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow this post makes no sense at all. you are advocating 'bluffing' against TPTK or JJ/10-10?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're mainly worried that he holds 66 99 or 22... this semi-bluff can take down the pot immediately if he holds a draw of some kind (perhaps the reason for the small bet) or a weaker hand he's willing to pay off. If he hit his ace or has a set and re-raises then it's a clear fold. Also, if he only calls it may give you a easy check behind on the river if he doesn't lead out again. The way the hand is currently played you have no idea if you are ahead or behind.

[thedustbustr]

value raise the flop, i would probably raise with as little as TPTK on a board like this.

i would need a boat to call that river bet (which I would have never gotten to like this, making it a v nice bluff). his line looks like the nuts to me.

chubbers, why the hell would you want to bluff out a worse hand?

[kidpokeher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think raising flop is 100% correct

[/ QUOTE ]

calling is ok, but raising is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say you raise the flop (2x? 3x?) and he reraises you. How much is worth a call vs. how much says let it go, he's got a monster?

Lately it seems I've been paying off a lot of people with these stats because I'm not giving them credit.

Good thread.