just talkin some theory: marginal spots (long but with cliff notes)

[BalugaWhale]

whats up crew
Its almost 2 but I am waiting for my veal parm sub and fries to be delivered so I thought i'd just talk about something I had been thinking about

I'm gonna divide poker into three spots:
1) good spots
2) bad spots
3) marginal spots

Good spots are easy to play. You have A/images/graemlins/club.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gif in the BB, a guy raises UTG, you reraise, he calls, flop is A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif. I'm not really gonna talk about those, easy enough to play.

Bad spots are stupid and we all know them. We raise 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif UTG for "metagame" and get two callers, and the flop is 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif. Hey, we've got a straight draw! Bad spot.

However, we should mostly know what to do in both good spots and bad spots. And, if we are playing good cards (read: tight) we will be in more good spots than bad spots.

However, the number of marginal spots we find ourselves in is truly up to us.

Lets try and define a marginal spot:
You could be ahead, or you could be behind. You could be way ahead, way behind, slightly ahead, or a small dog. Either way, you're not sure what to do.

Here is my theory to winning at 100 and 200nl:
Minimize marginal spots. I'm not saying to play them well and you'll win. If you can do that, great, do it. Some people can. Most, however, can't. Many can just play them well enough to break even.
However, marginal spots guarantee one thing: variance. When you are in a lot of situations where you could win or you could lose, and you dont really know where you stand, your bankroll is gonna ride the wave. Minimizing these spots will reduce variance, reduce tilt (hopefully), and let you focus on improving the aspects of your game that really show a difference in your winrate.

So heres how we do it:
1) Cards. When we play Q/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, or J/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif, or A/images/graemlins/spade.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, we are asking for it. Ask yourself this: How much, in the long term, are these hands really making for you? How much are they losing for you? And most importantly, how much do the swings these hands cause affect your ability to play well in the rest of your hands? So the message here is, tighten up.

2)Position. (my veal parm sub just got here, booya). Poker is a game of pressure, and these marginal spots come as a result of someone applying pressure on you. It is extremely difficult to play in marginal spots OOP when the pressure is on you. Your VPIP should be very, very low UTG and should spike OTB and in the CO. Playing marginal hands UTG can be good when you're playing deepstacked, or with a lot of good players (leave the table). But, for the most part, it puts you in a low profit, high variance situation.
That said, use position to your advantage. call and 3bet from the button with a wide range, manipulate your image to make moves at appropriate times.

Many players want to play like cts or even samoleus. Most can't. You are more likely to first lose your mind, then your bankroll, before you will be good enough to play 30%+ of your hands more profitably than a tight, TAG game.

Some examples, vs standard 25/20ish TAGs that are generally uncreative and that fill up a lot of the 200nl games (or at least did when I was playing there)

You raise 2nd to act with K/images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and get called by the button.
2 to the flop (pot is 9bb)
J/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
You bet 7bb, he raises to 25bb.
Talk about marginal. We have to let this go vs most villains, BUT we should have probably let it go pf.

We open raise in the CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif and are called by the button.

2 to the flop (pot 9bb)
J/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif
You lead for 7, he raises to 22bb, you call.

Turn (pot 52 bb)
2/images/graemlins/club.gif
You check, he bets 48bb.

Ew... time to fold again. But, villain depending, the fold may be pf, or on the flop.

Note how I keep saying "villain depending". Some spots are marginal vs some but not vs all. A/images/graemlins/heart.gifA/images/graemlins/diamond.gif may be marginal vs a TAG on a K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif board, but could be solid gold vs a donk. Thats your job to figure out.

Cliff Notes:
1) Marginal spots are usually at best low-profit, often negative, and increase variance.
2) Eliminate marginal spots by playing better cards and less cards OOP.
3) Dont emulate the so-called "good LAG".. what he does is very hard and probably not worth it for you.
4) veal parm subs are delicious

peace out
and dont hate, tldr crew

[ChubNub]

WOW I <3 this post, sums up some of my major leaks

[Claunchy]

Nice post. A lot of hands people open with as a "standard" play I've suspected were probably better off in the muck.

So are you recommending most SSNLers play like a 16/14 style?

[BalugaWhale]

[ QUOTE ]


So are you recommending most SSNLers play like a 16/14 style?


[/ QUOTE ]
I play 19/16 in mid stakes and they call me a nit, haha. I went from a 30/25 player to a 25/21 player to a 19/16 player.

16/14 is a little bit much, the point is to tighten up pretty significantly from EP. Its okay to get a loose in position, just be mindful of your image if you're getting played back at.

[Claunchy]

Okay. Based on this thread and those numbers, I would guess that you and I play almost identically preflop.

At least now I feel less dirty when I muck A8o in the CO when it's folded to me.

[Requin]

Another way to avoid marginal spots is to always reraise from the blinds vs. a CO or button open. I mean always, 100% of the time (unless you're deep). I started doing that after reading the taylor caby well, it's been working nicely for me.

[BalugaWhale]

[ QUOTE ]

Another way to avoid marginal spots is to always reraise from the blinds vs. a CO or button open. I mean always, 100% of the time (unless you're deep). I started doing that after reading the taylor caby well, it's been working nicely for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
No way, 100%??? What happens if you get 4bet???

[Claunchy]

I think he means rather than calling, right? Like you fold sometimes, right?

[NL__Fool]

[ QUOTE ]
I play 19/16 in mid stakes and they call me a nit, haha. I went from a 30/25 player to a 25/21 player to a 19/16 player

[/ QUOTE ]

This is full ring or Short handed?

[BalugaWhale]

ahh. I feel you now then.

Raise or fold is pretty good from the blinds, although as your game gets better you can work calling in, just make sure you do it at the right times.

3betting from the blinds can actually put you in some marginal spots, like when you 3bet A/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, get called, and the flop is A/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

[Requin]

People have not been 4-betting me nearly often enough at 400/600. I suspect at 1K I'll have to deal with villain's adjusting, but that's not so hard, just felt more marginal hands if you think they're getting out of line, and maybe fold some of the smaller pps. Also I'm already folding most SCs.

Ooooh yeah, I meant raise or fold and never call. Raising all the time would not reduce your marginal decisions /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[deaders]

Noo bad post, let everyone keep playing sooper aggro 26/22 style, its so profitable if you are slightly more nitty than that.

[BalugaWhale]

requin-

I assume you're just ditching everything non QQ+/AK if you get 4bet?

[Requin]

The first time yeah

[BalugaWhale]

[ QUOTE ]

The first time yeah

[/ QUOTE ]
the 2nd time?

[Requin]

Depends on alot of things; how big he reraised, was I squeezing, was there a limper, my image, his image, his SN/is he 2+2, how many tables is he on, did he buy in full, to some extent timing, how many times did I pop him in between the two 4-bets, ect. But usually the 2nd time I still have QQ+/AK.

[The White Rabbit]

In that TJ hand, I either c/c flop or b/3b AI (depending on villain), how bad is that?

And nice post, although I don't consider QT or A8 from the CO marginal.

[BalugaWhale]

bump cause this took a long time to write even if i was drunk

[Nielsio]

Good post. Read a decent part of it!

[ajmargarine]

Nice post sir. Irememberwhen....

/images/graemlins/heart.gif

[Freelancer]

Great stuff baluga, I'm a 26/21 and I know I am giving up some ev and increasing variance. However I WANT to put myself in marginal situations, your going to end up in them regardless even if you play very tight. However I like to learn how to handle myself in marginal situations so I know what to do when I move up and find myself in a similar situation. Besides I can't seem to be able to fold marginal hands in position, something I probably need to work on (just got into HU at FT so this is something for 'later'). /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

But yeah, nitty play is underestimated as a viable and highly profitable strategy. Laggy play isn't for everyone, it has to be in your blood (so to say). Especially if you gringe every time you lose a medium sized pots lag is probably not something for you. I love taking down a ton of small pots and I don't mind to ride the variance train a bit...

[soon2b]

Good post, well written.

[BalugaWhale]

freelancer (and everybody else)-

I am not talking about overall nitty play. Sure, I think nitty play is good out of position.

But I play a wide range of hands in a wide range of ways in position, without getting myself into too many marginal spots. Sure, they happen, but the less they happen the less variance, and variance sucks.

[MortenTA]

very nice post.. /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[Marwan]

I'm quite confused.. .. who the hell delivers veal parm. subs @ 2 in the morning? I can't even get pizza @ 2 in the morning here.

Seriously, nice post.. tightening up and letting go of marginal hands pf (that lead to marginal decisions post flop) has really helped my game over the past week.. not playing hand likes Q9s OOP just because it looks pretty has also helped..

[Freelancer]

[ QUOTE ]
freelancer (and everybody else)-

I am not talking about overall nitty play. Sure, I think nitty play is good out of position.

But I play a wide range of hands in a wide range of ways in position, without getting myself into too many marginal spots. Sure, they happen, but the less they happen the less variance, and variance sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]
What I meant is that if you play more hands you naturally end up in more marginal spots, I manage to avoid a lot of marginal spots by raise or folding a lot from the blinds and most importantly usually taking the more agressive approach in a hand. Also I know my villains well and can usually tailor my play against a certain villain, you really need to pay attention however stats alone are never enough if your playing laggy...


For instance I hold 66 OTB, raise preflop and get called in the blinds.
The flop comes; 357r and he donks into me for like half pot.
Unless I have some read on villain I will usually raise in this spot with ATC and expect a fold 80% of the time. If I do get called I usually have 6 outs or so and get (most of the time) a free card on the turn. If I call I end up in marginal spot (or difficult spot) with ROI on the turn, because I'll be playing a guessing game because villain will donk into me twice A LOT and my hand still figures to be best sometimes but really I don't know...
Its also awesome for my image and thus my profit, I don't really think it matters a lot in terms of ev between calling/raising in these spots (if you raise you get to play perfect and put villain in a tough spot, if you call you can easily make BIG mistakes on the turn/river).

But please don't get more agressive, I love it if people call me down. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif



Ps. I am not really worried about variance, I ride the variance train without to much problems...

[aces_dad]

Baluga,

This is a nice post.

Hands on the border of marginal/good are important, so any thoughts on profitable but thinner call downs / bluffs would be interesting. Specifically, what are better hands to call / raise/rr w in late position vs early? You've shown a distance for calling weak broadway like KJo in this post.

Perhaps on your next parm sub delivery.

[Chomp]

I am overwhlemed with joy that BW and other good winning players run at 19/16...I thought all you guys were 26/22 types so this is great news to natural nits like me.

And BW's post reminded me of cbloom's excellent PB, "What Matters, What Doesn't":

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Number=6251739

[Oki-Oki]

[ QUOTE ]

And BW's post reminded me of cbloom's excellent PB, "What Matters, What Doesn't":

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Number=6251739

[/ QUOTE ]

Between that post and this, you have just saved me. /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[begbie100]

Thanks Baluga, great post.

I'm playing on Ongame network, where it all really comes down to extraction, the players are that bad. You wait for the good hand, and then value bet.

However, I find myself too often playing marginal hands just out of boredom or because I want my stats look better. This is bad, because it's hard to put loose bad players on hands, and I end up paying biggish river bets too often, because "they are donks, they could have anything". So these marginal hands are definitely increasing variance and probably are -EV for me.

[Stealthy]

Seriously good post Baluga, I missed this first time round so glad it got bumped.