$200 NL push flush draw on flop?

[wpr101]

Against regular who is 20/15.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($200)
wpr101 ($208.10)
MP ($443.25)
Button ($208.15)
SB ($213.85)

Preflop: wpr101 is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">wpr101 raises to $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $20</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $19, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, wpr101 calls $12.

Flop: ($62) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $54</font>, <font color="#CC3333">wpr101 raises to $188.1

[Casper05]

eh, looks ok I guess. I suck at math, but I dont think villian has to fold very much for this to be +EV.

[wpr101]

It seems pretty close between folding and pushing to me.

[Casper05]

I agree...I prob fold because I suck at variance and have no balls, but like I said in my first post- I dont think a push is bad.

[KLJ]

depends if he's good enough to know that your play is somewhat transparent here

[Novles]

SB ain't folding after coldcalling 3 bets pf and leading into 2 players for pot on an ace high flop.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
SB ain't folding after coldcalling 3 bets pf and leading into 2 players for pot on an ace high flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percentage does he need to fold for it to be a good bet? I think if he is folding &gt; 30% of the time it is +EV. However, I didn't think he was going to fold so it probably was not a good play.

[Ranma4703]

You are folding QQ and thats about it. I would fold to the reraise (grunched)
EDIT: Misread, thought it was HU. Insta fold in that case.

[pr0crast]

Preflop is yuck oop in a multiway pot. Your K and Q outs are dirty a lot after the RR and CC, and this was pretty much one of the only flops you could continue on in a multiway pot. I still don't like a flop push though since you still have one guy yet to act, and you dont have much FE vs their ranges. I sincerely doubt AK/AQ is folding often enough here for this push to be profitable, and I sincerely doubt that SB is betting out into two opponents here with a hand he's willing to fold to a raise.

Your only option here is to fold to the flop bet.

[Praetor]

Er, preflop is 100% standard. anything else sucks

I would fold here, no FE imo and guy to act

[pr0crast]

[ QUOTE ]
Er, preflop is 100% standard. anything else sucks

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree about it being 100% standard. Sure it may be better, but if it is, it's not by much (in terms of pure value), and it would heavily depend on the OPs post flop skills. It's not bad by any means to let it go pf, especially if 8 tabling with less than perfect post flop ability. Personally I like to avoid marginal/difficult OOP situations when multitabling, even if I'm missing some value, but that's just me.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is yuck oop in a multiway pot. Your K and Q outs are dirty a lot after the RR and CC, and this was pretty much one of the only flops you could continue on in a multiway pot. I still don't like a flop push though since you still have one guy yet to act, and you dont have much FE vs their ranges. I sincerely doubt AK/AQ is folding often enough here for this push to be profitable, and I sincerely doubt that SB is betting out into two opponents here with a hand he's willing to fold to a raise.

Your only option here is to fold to the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wtf, preflop is never a fold to a raise of that size.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
Er, preflop is 100% standard. anything else sucks

I would fold here, no FE imo and guy to act

[/ QUOTE ]

If the second guy calls with AK it really is not that bad for me considering the odds.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
You are folding QQ and thats about it. I would fold to the reraise (grunched)
EDIT: Misread, thought it was HU. Insta fold in that case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you are talking about? You are saying fold pre or on the flop?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
SB ain't folding after coldcalling 3 bets pf and leading into 2 players for pot on an ace high flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. He's rarely folding, and Hero is 2:1 dog at best. I suck at math, but Villian has to fold ALOT for this to be +EV.

[pr0crast]

Post deleted by pr0crast

[Jigsaws]

What's your read on MP?

Can't fold preflop getting 5 to 1, IMO. I think I fold to SBs lead, though. His cold-call+lead is awfully strong, I think he shows up with at least AK/AQ here (though I think they're both terrible cold-calls). He might fold AQ, but I don't think he folds AK. I wouldn't at least. Only 22/88 beats us, really.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
W/ever, my point is that this whole hand is incredibly marginal and not worth too much thought. People are going to have a difficult time making a strong enough argument to sway you from your initial line for that very reason (the hand being so marginal), and you'll probably end up no better off after this thread is exhausted. You're spending an hour thinking about a hand whose EV range is probably like +/- $10, when that hour could have been spent playing poker and making $150/hr :-P

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I do agree that is marginal either way and probably not a big diff in EV. But I think preflop should always be a call.

[keikiwai]

SB if felting and the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif is MIA, and even w/o that this would be -EV... w/ those 2 thrown in, this is pretty strongly -EV

[pr0crast]

Oops, meant to delete another post and got this one instead. Anyway I'm not arguing with you over whether or not a preflop call is correct as you are probably right, but what I'm saying is that a preflop fold is not THAT incorrect and is certainly not horrible.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your read on MP?

Can't fold preflop getting 5 to 1, IMO. I think I fold to SBs lead, though. His cold-call+lead is awfully strong, I think he shows up with at least AK/AQ here (though I think they're both terrible cold-calls). He might fold AQ, but I don't think he folds AK. I wouldn't at least. Only 22/88 beats us, really.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not too much of a read, but I felt like he could be probing with AJ/AQ and somehow find a fold. I think I was being too optimistic. However, I feel like if he is folding as much as 25% it is +EV.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your read on MP?

Can't fold preflop getting 5 to 1, IMO. I think I fold to SBs lead, though. His cold-call+lead is awfully strong, I think he shows up with at least AK/AQ here (though I think they're both terrible cold-calls). He might fold AQ, but I don't think he folds AK. I wouldn't at least. Only 22/88 beats us, really.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget AA. I've seen a number of folks not 4b cold with AA in the last month.

[effinA]

it doesnt look like hes gonna fold, so its close
id play it the same prolly, its the only way to get that pay off on ur flush!

[Vammakala]

Don't you find it peculior that the SB is the one to lead, I don't mind the push here as the pawt is big and you might easily get it 3-way with a good draw. Dunno.. I'd imagine SB not folding so it's a gamble with not much FE.

All you gotta do is weight calling and getting pushed into 3-way all-in by MP against pushing and having little FE. If you call and MP folds, you'll only see one card. Dunno.

Folding would be okay imo.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you find it peculior that the SB is the one to lead, I don't mind the push here as the pawt is big and you might easily get it 3-way with a good draw. Dunno.. I'd imagine SB not folding so it's a gamble with not much FE.

All you gotta do is weight calling and getting pushed into 3-way all-in by MP against pushing and having little FE. If you call and MP folds, you'll only see one card. Dunno.

Folding would be okay imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is a fold. I don't like how I played after some thought.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you find it peculior that the SB is the one to lead...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is very peculiar and Hero should realize that this is a tremendous show of strength, and he has real small FE.

[Barrin6]

[ QUOTE ]
SB ain't folding after coldcalling 3 bets pf and leading into 2 players for pot on an ace high flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Dan Bitel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB ain't folding after coldcalling 3 bets pf and leading into 2 players for pot on an ace high flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. This push is sick bad

[cs3]

SB has AA or AK and is never folding.

fold flop.

i personally dont like PF either but its not bad. just not my style becasue of the exact situation you're in... i mean you got one of the best flops you could hope for and you're still in a nasty spot

[gol4pro]

gross. villian aint folding and you're a 2:1 dog. Fold.