I realized I need some help in a very basic area: FE and its math

[gimmetheloot]

I am not 100% certain on how to do these calcs. For example, shoving AK pf over a 3bet...

Here is what I got. I dont know if this is correct, or is ass backwards, and would like some help /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Anyway.

Note: I dont know exactly what our equity in the pot is vs the range I am going to give, so I used some made up, but likely fairly close numbers.

I haven’t run it through Pokerstove, because I don’t have it, but if we are a 40/60 dog to his calling range of the 4bet….(AA/KK/QQ/JJ?/AK) We need our opponent to fold a mere 31% of the time we shove to be +EV.

Here is the math:
Assuming 100BB stacks, and no limpers.

SB+BB = 1.5BB in pot…
You raise to 4BB (5.5BB in pot)
Villain raises to 12BB (17.5BB)
8 BB to call (25.5BB)
88 more gets pushed in.
3.45x pot push.
(25.5/88 = .2897 * 100 = 28.97%)
(100-28.97 = 71.03%)
71.03% = amount of the time we need to win the pot to break even.

If we win 40% of the time we are called, we need to win the other 31% of the time preflop.

So if he folds >31% of the time pf, pushing is printing money.

Or is this wrong because we lose 100BB 60% of the time we are called and only win it 40% of the time, needing to increase our FE?

I feel like I shouldnt be winning not knowing simple things like this...

[orange]

gimmme,
i'm sure your far more competent in math than i am.

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
gimmme,
i'm sure your far more competent in math than i am.

[/ QUOTE ]

your asian, correct my math and stop lying to me.

[orange]

no no...i'm an anomaly, wired in more in the writing/art/history stuff. wtfff happened to me at birth?

[The White Rabbit]

Your math is wrong. Please note that you push for 96, not 88. So you're investing 96 to win a 17.5 pot x of the time, win a 105.5 pot 0.4 * (1-x) of the time and loose 96 0.6 * (1-x) of the time.

x*17.5 + (1-x)(0.4*105.5 - 0.6*96)=0

Solving for x gives 0.468085.

[Claunchy]

[ QUOTE ]
gimmme,
i'm sure your far more competent in math than i am.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, me too. I can barely calculate pot odds.

[gimmetheloot]

so he needs to fold almost 50% of the time just to break even?

[Abramovic]

So should we or shouldnt we 4bet allin v Unknown with AK?

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Claunchy]

[ QUOTE ]
so he needs to fold almost 50% of the time just to break even?

[/ QUOTE ]
Even if this is true, it still means 4-betting over an obvious resteal can be a profitable play if used sparingly.

[The White Rabbit]

[ QUOTE ]

so he needs to fold almost 50% of the time just to break even?

[/ QUOTE ]
yes.

[ QUOTE ]

So should we or shouldnt we 4bet allin v Unknown with AK?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it's terrible, but a large part of SSNL disagrees. I don't play in super aggro preflop games as some of you seem to do though. It can be correct against certain players under certain game conditions.

[Ness3]

gimme,

if your opponent 3-bets too often, you can pretty much always shove AK.

Ness' tip of the day.

Ness

no math required.

[Claunchy]

I agree w/ shoving AK, but if all we need is for villain to fold half the time, isn't there some value in shoving ATC every now and then?

[Ness3]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree w/ shoving AK, but if all we need is for villain to fold half the time, isn't there some value in shoving ATC every now and then?

[/ QUOTE ]

sure, but probably not in most of the games we play (SSNL). Similar to raising total trash out of the blinds (NLHTAP or the infamous TWP post cover similar ideas).

***i never 4-bet shove with ATC SSNL.

Ness

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree w/ shoving AK, but if all we need is for villain to fold half the time, isn't there some value in shoving ATC every now and then?

[/ QUOTE ]

you think people 3b and then fold to a shove >50% of the time?

[The White Rabbit]

Claunchy, if you're shoving a weaker hand your FE has to be higher since your equity against his calling range is lower. So against a certain player with a certain history, shoving AK can be profitable while shoving A8s is not.

[Ness3]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree w/ shoving AK, but if all we need is for villain to fold half the time, isn't there some value in shoving ATC every now and then?

[/ QUOTE ]

you think people 3b and then fold to a shove >50% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

it really depends on your opponent---obv. i know. as you know, you really just have to ballpark percentages based on how your opponent is playing and how he views you etc. etc.

for example, say the small blind is repopping me way too much. in this case, if he views me as a solid player he will surely fold to my four bet more than 50% of the time, assuming he is a solid players as well.

otoh, if you have been raisin the button over and over and get three bet for the first time in an hour--its probably not a good time to four bet .

[The White Rabbit]

To quote VanVeen:

[ QUOTE ]

the best poker advice i ever received was that only pot odds, pot/fold equity, and hand ranges matter. if a hand range is in someway exploitable, exploit it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Claunchy]

I guess I was referring to more aggro games. I can't imagine ever doing this in a 100NL game, but there are some opponents at 200NL who repop pretty damn liberally, and at 400+ it's pretty much standard.

Pretty much everything Ness said.

Question though: If I am 4-betting light, am I better off betting like 40BBs and folding to a shove or just shoving myself (assuming 100BB stacks)?

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

so he needs to fold almost 50% of the time just to break even?

[/ QUOTE ]
yes.

[ QUOTE ]

So should we or shouldnt we 4bet allin v Unknown with AK?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it's terrible, but a large part of SSNL disagrees. I don't play in super aggro preflop games as some of you seem to do though. It can be correct against certain players under certain game conditions.

[/ QUOTE ]

White Rabbit do you call 3bets with AK OOP?

[_dave_]

I believe these two threads are appropriate links for this subject:

Fimbulwinter: Calculating EV Part I: Calling an All-In Bet (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=299744 2)
Fimbulwinter: Calculating EV Part II: Making an All-In Raise (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=306976 5)

Classic threads, well worth a read if you haven't done so already.

dave.

[Ness3]

[ QUOTE ]
Question though: If I am 4-betting light, am I better off betting like 40BBs and folding to a shove or just shoving myself (assuming 100BB stacks)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Claunchy,

I am curious about this as well.

I have experimented with both and quite frankly, I felt like i had more succes with four betting instead of shoving--the fifth bet is always AA or KK /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

However, some people tell me i am retarded to four bet with 89s or 77 and that i should just shove.