200 nl: Can I Fold This

[craig1120]

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $526.25
CO: $200
Button: $119
SB: $176.20
BB: $184.95

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $16</font>, BB folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif ($50, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $33</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $160.2</font>, Hero

[Praetor]

no

[Chaostracize]

I can. I don't like doing it, and I don't do it all the time. But you should be folding here, and somewhat often.

[craig1120]

[ QUOTE ]
I can. I don't like doing it, and I don't do it all the time. But you should be folding here, and somewhat often.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree w/ this

[iFoldTheNuts]

i call and laugh at AK and puke at AA.

[DevinLake]

You still have great equity against the range of hands that even a solid opponent could be doing this with:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.089% 72.44% 00.65% 30121 269.50 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 26.911% 26.26% 00.65% 10920 269.50 { AA, JJ-TT, ATs+, ATo+ }

[Chaostracize]

KK/QQ do not make this play. Ever.

[iFoldTheNuts]

is this ever KQ or AK or AQ?

[craig1120]

[ QUOTE ]
You still have great equity against the range of hands that even a solid opponent could be doing this with:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.089% 72.44% 00.65% 30121 269.50 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 26.911% 26.26% 00.65% 10920 269.50 { AA, JJ-TT, ATs+, ATo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]
most of those hands in your range arent played like this

[Praetor]

[ QUOTE ]
KK/QQ do not make this play. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, bad players can do this quite often and even tilting decent players can

[josh_x]

You are getting nearly 2-1 and although he has AA a good amount of the time you see people show up with Ak or something stupid often enough i think. It's pretty damn close, tough without having a feel for his play.

[kev123]

any stats for SB ?

Getting almost 2:1 on my money I`m gonna have a job folding this, for me it would be quite read dependent. Looks like he has JJ

[craig1120]

[ QUOTE ]
any stats for SB ?

Getting almost 2:1 on my money I`m gonna have a job folding this, for me it would be quite read dependent. Looks like he has JJ

[/ QUOTE ]
I had just sat.. my only read was his pf rr which I think is a good indicator of what kind of player he is

[Chaostracize]

Tilting and bad players can make weird plays, but with action going as it did, you find weird plays much less often in this spot.

[Wabbits]

With that big stack, I think calling is ok. I'd agree with a folding somewhat often if the stack are even. Espectially if you both were table leaders. Wheres the info on his play style? Bluffs alot? Rock? Strong? Weak?

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You still have great equity against the range of hands that even a solid opponent could be doing this with:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.089% 72.44% 00.65% 30121 269.50 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 26.911% 26.26% 00.65% 10920 269.50 { AA, JJ-TT, ATs+, ATo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]
most of those hands in your range arent played like this

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? How do you play AT+ on this board? I'd flat call that flop with AK/Q most likely, but I'd shove AJ/T some % of the time.

But you don't have anything on this guy...so, do you assume he's too solid to do this without AA, JJ? Or, do you make the assumption I do with knowns and assume they are going this with enough 2pr and Ax hands that it's worth it with a set.

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
KK/QQ do not make this play. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is directed at my range, I didn't not include them. However, KK/QQ could do this some small percent of the time. But, I would need a read that this guy is really donkish to include that in a range here.

[digables-]

Call and river a T obv

[craig1120]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You still have great equity against the range of hands that even a solid opponent could be doing this with:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.089% 72.44% 00.65% 30121 269.50 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 26.911% 26.26% 00.65% 10920 269.50 { AA, JJ-TT, ATs+, ATo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]
most of those hands in your range arent played like this

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? How do you play AT+ on this board? I'd flat call that flop with AK/Q most likely, but I'd shove AJ/T some % of the time.

But you don't have anything on this guy...so, do you assume he's too solid to do this without AA, JJ? Or, do you make the assumption I do with knowns and assume they are going this with enough 2pr and Ax hands that it's worth it with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just meant your equity simulation or whatever was too simple.. lets say you had villian's range correct but of that range he 3 bets pf AA 100% of the time and the rest only 20% of the time.. and on that flop he CRAI AA/JJ/KQ 100% of the time and the rest of the hands in that range maybe 10% of the time

Im still up against the same range you posted but do you see how the above info makes my equity bad

[DevinLake]

I actually didn't look close enough at the preflop action and missed the button caller. I thought it was a button raise with a blind 3-bet.

So, you're right, his range is skewed toward having AA more than AJ/AT,etc.

[thedustbustr]

AA,JJ,AK, not very often AJ but if he has squeezy mcaggro stats its in there. and if this is the case there is a small equity gain due to random draws.

i only included suited jacks not offsuit jacks to accomodate for this

Hand 0: 62.448% 61.81% 00.64% 1534154 15953.50 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 37.551% 36.91% 00.64% 916165 15953.50 { AA, JJ-TT, AKs, AJs, AKo }

how can you possibly take AK out of his range? Its a clear call unless you do so.

[terp]

against a donkey i might might might be able to fold this.

[ZingyDNA]

What about AK? If you fold this, you have to be pretty sure:
1.He's not bluffing or semi-bluffing
2.He doesn't have AK/AJ/AT.

I'd be calling this quickly.