nut draw facing c/r min from lagtard

[DaAznFella]

Villain is 45/20/3 over ~250 hands

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
8 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $209.75
Hero (BB): $64.35
UTG: $14.20
UTG+1: $59.95
MP1: $55.70
MP2: $49.25

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif ($0.75, 8 players)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, UTG folds, SB calls $1.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif ($5, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $3

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif [3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] ($17, 4 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $11</font>, Hero calls $11

<font color="black">River:</font> 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif [9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] ($39, 4 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $20</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $20 returned to SB

should I be shoving that flop? Or the turn? I'm thinking i'll bust him anyway if my draw hits, and I'm not sure if he'll ever fold the flop after the c/r min. Thoughts?

[pineapple888]

Well with his stats he could actually be a pretty good LAG (I think, I'm still a little shaky on the aggression stat), so I wouldn't count on busting him when an obvious flush hits on an otherwise dry board, unless you have an additional read that he's a total idiot.

So I'd 3-bet to $20 or so on the flop probably, with the intention of getting it ai right there, or on the turn.

[DaAznFella]

[ QUOTE ]
Well with his stats he could actually be a pretty good LAG (I think, I'm still a little shaky on the aggression stat), so I wouldn't count on busting him when an obvious flush hits on an otherwise dry board, unless you have an additional read that he's a total idiot.

So I'd 3-bet to $20 or so on the flop probably, with the intention of getting it ai right there, or on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you really think this is the most +EV line to take if he is never folding after his c/r min unless he does it with a lower flush draw (which we stack if a club hits)?

[emeraldice]

I probably raise more preflop against a calling station who will have position on you. Have you seen him minraise b4?
I probably lead out for slightly more on flop...
I think a call is good on flop, depends on your read of his raise.
Turn might be a fold, u don't really know if your A or K outs are live.
I also struggle with these semi-bluffing situations where I doubt villain will fold any pair. At lower stakes what is the best line here?
Also, how does it change if you have position here when he check minraises you? Easy flatcall?

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well with his stats he could actually be a pretty good LAG (I think, I'm still a little shaky on the aggression stat), so I wouldn't count on busting him when an obvious flush hits on an otherwise dry board, unless you have an additional read that he's a total idiot.

So I'd 3-bet to $20 or so on the flop probably, with the intention of getting it ai right there, or on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you really think this is the most +EV line to take if he is never folding after his c/r min unless he does it with a lower flush draw (which we stack if a club hits)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, no, of course not, but that's a pretty specific read there, son. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I just think this dude is LAGgy (maybe good, maybe a tard), he hit a piece of the flop, and he's trying to pick off a CB cheaply. So pop him back and I'd expect him to fold most of the time, and if not, oh well we're still in decent shape.

Maybe I misunderstood your original post, do you really have the read you are describing? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[DaAznFella]

eh, not really, but i've just moved down from 1/2 NL (life tilt, i'm now playing nl50 with a 6k roll), where a c/r min generally indicates a set. Is it not the same down here at nl50?

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
eh, not really, but i've just moved down from 1/2 NL (life tilt, i'm now playing nl50 with a 6k roll), where a c/r min generally indicates a set. Is it not the same down here at nl50?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, a c/mr could mean anything, it's up to you really to figure out what it means in this particular spot vs. this particular opponent, of course if everyone thinks "OMG SET" a decent LAG is going to do it all day long.

[DaAznFella]

are there really enough decent lags at microNL to be worried about that?

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
are there really enough decent lags at microNL to be worried about that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I feel like we are going around in circles here. You're saying "let's assume he's a typical µNL player, what should I do?" and I'm saying "who cares about a typical player, you have PAHud stats and some sort of read I hope, so figure out what to do right now against this specific player." He doesn't have to be a very good LAG to realize that people tend to assume monsters when he check/minraises. Or he could be out to lunch in general, and minraising just because he caught a piece of the flop. There's all kinds of possibilities other than "zomg a set". But if that's your read, then your line is fine.

Anyway, I guess we should stop there, not too much else to be said really.

[DaAznFella]

Ya sorry i wasn't trying to just be argumentative, I think I just overreacted to the c/r min, gotta away from the zomg set mentality.

[Sense1ess]

I think he would raise 99 pf and possibly 66. I'm with pineapple888 on 3-betting to about $20 on the flop. As played I would fold the turn since you're only sure outs are flush cards.