50NL 6max- JJ overpair on a 922 flop

[Imrahil]

Villian is 38/14 with a flop AF of 1.88 over 100 or so hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($52.95)
Button ($52.10)
SB ($79.65)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($13)
MP ($90.30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, UTG calls $5, CO calls $5, Button folds.

Flop: ($18) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, UTG calls $7 (All-In), <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $46.95</font>, Hero?

[Messiahkid]

Preflop: UTG minraise (LOL, but seriously what do you see people do this with, KK or AA is what I usually see b/c they are looking for CO/button to 3bet preflop).

PostFlop: Why bet $9 into $18 ? I would bet atleast $12.

I guess I fold and cringe, anyone else?

[jonyy6788]

I already mentioned this in the Microbrew, but I think I either isolate UTG preflop or call his min. raise.

If you think villain would do this with 10-10 or Axs then you have to call getting 2.4:1 on your money. His flop AF screams that he has you beat (especially since you've shown strength and UTG has as well--although he isn't as much of a factor).

[Check_The_Nuts]

since UTG is all in I really can't see this being a bluff. I think you can get away from this given its a dry side pot. If the guy is semi bluffing he only wins 2 dollars from the sidepot, and then has to beat UTG pair to win the pot. He will be drawing to 8 outs a lot on a paired board..

He could also just call with a flush draw, which is about 12 times better than shoving.

[Imrahil]

But what hand does CO have??

I think there are 99, TT, possibly QQ, or two spade overcards.

[Check_The_Nuts]

so your 50/50 against more than half his range, way ahead of one hand, way behind two hands.

and I really doubt he's gunna shove with the 50/50 crap, simply because its a dry side pot. If UTG had a full stack, then I think this would be much more marginal or if the guy was like a 3-4 AF.

[Imrahil]

I don't think most 50NL players think about side pots. If villain has AJs here he's thinking "I have the NFD + overs, I'll try and get the PFR to fold his hand."

[Imrahil]

Meh, I used Poker Stove and as long as he does this with QQ, 99 and TT, I'm getting correct odds to call (40% to win against this range). I guess I have to call here.

[A_C_Slater]

He slowplays 99 here and 22. He has a flush draw with overs! I call. And I bet more on the flop. QQ-AA is raising somewhere preflop almost certainly. You beat TT as well!

...and a frustration push with 55-88 don't forget!

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
He slowplays 99 here and 22. He has a flush draw with overs! I call. And I bet more on the flop. QQ-AA is raising somewhere preflop almost certainly. You beat TT as well!

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet only 1/2 pot because I was thinking that if CO pushed I'd fold. But once he pushed I started thinking more.

[jonyy6788]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think most 50NL players think about side pots. If villain has AJs here he's thinking "I have the NFD + overs, I'll try and get the PFR to fold his hand."

[/ QUOTE ]

A 38/14 doesn't think about fold equity either. I'd put hero on QQ+ here (more like KK+ usually at these stakes). He's telling you he doesn't care. Let's think about the preflop action as well. Min raise UTG, cold call, you repop to $6 (this should narrow his range BIG TIME) and then he pushes flop 922. Between you and UTG you guys have repped JJ-AA and he has put you all-in (people do some dumb stuff postflop, but think about the context of the hand (what you've repped, what you think he has, and what he thinks you have).

[Imrahil]

I don't think villain ever has KK+ here. But it I'm representing a big PP what hand does villain have? If you don't think he's pushing without beating AA or KK then QQ is out. So basically his range is just 22 and 99. Most 50NL donks min-raise or call with those hands.

[A_C_Slater]

"(what you've repped, what you think he has, and what he thinks you have)."


I don't think he's thinking about what you have. He's just thinking it will fun to hit a flush and that a flush will make the best hand and win a big pot. He's raising QQ-AA with his stats and the coldcallers. 99 is the only major concern, but he almost ceratinly slowplays that or mini-raises.

Actually even if he is thinking about what you have he probably still pushes a flush draw trying to get that tight player to fold his big pair. Or he could be putting you on AK.

[jonyy6788]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think villain ever has KK+ here. But it I'm representing a big PP what hand does villain have? If you don't think he's pushing without beating AA or KK then QQ is out. So basically his range is just 22 and 99. Most 50NL donks min-raise or call with those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said hero....

p.s. you're not giving enough credit to "NL50 donks"

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think villain ever has KK+ here. But it I'm representing a big PP what hand does villain have? If you don't think he's pushing without beating AA or KK then QQ is out. So basically his range is just 22 and 99. Most 50NL donks min-raise or call with those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said hero....

p.s. you're not giving enough credit to "NL50 donks"

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it applies if you say hero or villain.

[johnnyrocket]

Lets assume CO raises with his top percents of hands with his 14PFR. Here he just calls a minimum raise and allows others into the pot, with a strong hand he would reraise here to narrow down the field, then he just calls your reraise without pushing back. You bet the flop and he moves all in for that much. Don't you think he would let you bet off your stack into the nut full house if he had 99. You guys are completely overlooking this because nothing would scare him if he had that hand. He is probably playing a pair such as 1010 or a pair under t9's and since it looks like a harmless flop he thinks he can push you off a hand like AK or so. This is an automatic call for you.

[jonyy6788]

I'm sorry, but if villain has 99 or 22 and he thinks you have JJ+ (you've repped it) he's pushing. He doesn't want to lose his action if a spade falls on the turn (you don't pay him off if a spade hits---at least I hope you don't). If a K/A falls on the turn and you have JJ-QQ you get scared.

Cold call min raise + cold call $6=pocket pair...the only ones we beat are 10s and he's not doing this with 10s. If the flop went check, all-in $8, all-in $40 I could see 10-10, but when you lead he's putting you on a big pair.

[DaAznFella]

I think at these levels this is almost always a 33-TT frustration push. QQ+ is finding a raise PF somewhere. I call. If he has random deuce i throw my mouse against the wall as hard as I can. And I don't think a 38/14 is capable is 2nd level thinking, more likely thinking "I have a pair, i'm gonna shove it in"

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but if villain has 99 or 22 and he thinks you have JJ+ (you've repped it) he's pushing. He doesn't want to lose his action if a spade falls on the turn (you don't pay him off if a spade hits---at least I hope you don't). If a K/A falls on the turn and you have JJ-QQ you get scared.

Cold call min raise + cold call $6=pocket pair...the only ones we beat are 10s and he's not doing this with 10s. If the flop went check, all-in $8, all-in $40 I could see 10-10, but when you lead he's putting you on a big pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't think villain is capable of calling a min-raise and then calling my raise with AQs or AJs? 50NL players would NEVER push with 22 here.

[jonyy6788]

I don't think a 38/14 is calling your raise with AQs or AJs. The fact he pushed what he did shows that he knew what you had and that you couldn't fold.

Over his 100 hands, how many times did he cold call or cold call a 3-bet. There's not too many hands even the biggest donk will cold-call a 3-bet with. Donks are donks, but I respect them in re-raised pots.

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think a 38/14 is calling your raise with AQs or AJs. The fact he pushed what he did shows that he knew what you had and that you couldn't fold.

Over his 100 hands, how many times did he cold call or cold call a 3-bet. There's not too many hands even the biggest donk will cold-call a 3-bet with. Donks are donks, but I respect them in re-raised pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually he can easily have AK here. A lot of people won't play AK aggressively before the flop.

Anyways, for me to fold this I need to put villain exactly on QQ, 99 or 22 and NOTHING else. If he ever has TT or two high spades here then I must call.

[jonyy6788]

I would think if we ran some #'s that if his range was QQ, 99, 22, TT or facecard spades that you wouldn't want to call. Give me a few mins.

[Imrahil]

Against QQ TT and 99 I'm 40%. I'm not even considering 22 in my range because no villain would ever push with it.

[jonyy6788]

If villain is capable of pushing 99 he is going to do the same with 22

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
If villain is capable of pushing 99 he is going to do the same with 22

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. If villain pushes 99 it's because he'sared of me filling up. With 22 he's not scared of anything.

[jonyy6788]

Villain is worried about a 2 outer? C'MON! If villain's pushing 99 he's doing it so you call when WB and that no scary cards hit the board.

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is worried about a 2 outer? C'MON! If villain's pushing 99 he's doing it so you call when WB and that no scary cards hit the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd bet that villain didn't want me to suck out on him. 50NL players don't think about scare cards that can possibly come.

[jonyy6788]

[ QUOTE ]
50NL players don't think about scare cards that can possibly come.

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be the most ridiculous statement I've ever read....

You do realize that NL50 now is comparable to NL200-400 of the not so very long ago? Yes, people aren't that good, but to generalize like that is beyond belief. If you have that little respect for NL50 I don't know what to say.

I think I'm done posting about this hand, you don't seem to want to listen or respect your opponents. I hate to get this way on a random message board, but this was the last straw for me.