time to let the rockets go?

[MortenTA]

villain is 66/0/0.2 over 60 hands

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $40.70
Hero: $50.15
Button: $37.10
SB: $38.94
BB: $41.70

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($5.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($15.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $33.2</font>, Hero ?

[avfletch]

I'd fold this.

An uber passive villain putting in a big check-raise. He was either ahead of you on the flop or had JT well over 90% of the time imo.

[Wotsmycode]

2pairs just got there aswell.... fold and stack him later!

[Genz]

he isn't semi-bluffing and he isn't check/raising a single queen. Your one-pair-hand isn't good here, imo.

[Waingro]

If this isn´t an insta-call I don´t know what is. The pot is $60 and Hero has $23 to call. If Hero isn´t ahead enough here to call I´m going to eat my own poop. Against this guy you are looking to get it all in. You are never ever looking for a reason to fold aces. Call and be happy about it. Villain could very well play Qx this way.

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
If this isn´t an insta-call I don´t know what is. The pot is $60 and Hero has $23 to call. If Hero isn´t ahead enough here to call I´m going to eat my own poop. Against this guy you are looking to get it all in. You are never ever looking for a reason to fold aces. Call and be happy about it. Villain could very well play Qx this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

A villain this passive doesn't check-raise turn with Qx, unless that x paired the board. This seems like a perfect example of the Baluga Whale theorum to me. I expect to be ahead here almost never

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
You are never ever looking for a reason to fold aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't claim to be good, but this seems like a pretty good way to lose money.

[Unknown Soldier]

8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif

you A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif

I'm pretty sure you have found a reason to fold your aces!

[demon102]

Im thinking u could be ahead of 2 hands here AQ or KK. I could see opp playing them this way as well as QQ any of the small pairs that make a set suited 2 and 3 gap connectors. So out of like 9-10 hands ur ahead of 2.

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif

you A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif

I'm pretty sure you have found a reason to fold your aces!

[/ QUOTE ]

put him on KK and call. Standard.

[limit refugee]

With unknowns, I'm calling and being happy he doesn't have a full stack.

Against this villain, no way. He's so passive he's practically comatose and he calls preflop with all kinds of rubbish that now makes a good hand. I'm out of this one, and my passion seems to be getting stacked with Aces.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
With unknowns, I'm calling and being happy he doesn't have a full stack.

Against this villain, no way. He's so passive he's practically comatose and he calls preflop with all kinds of rubbish that now makes a good hand. I'm out of this one, and my passion seems to be getting stacked with Aces.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have 60 hands with villain!! His post flop aggression mean next to nothing. All I know is this guy is very rarely on paired cards pf. This means not felting AA for 80 bbs against this guy is incredibly weak-tight.

Let us look at some numbers. We need to win ~28% at showdown to make this call. If we are behind villain at this point his most likely holding by far is some random 2 pair, followed by a distant straight or a set. Against a 2 pair we have a solid 8 outs to awinner, meaning that IF we are behind villains range, we have to have the best hand a really tiny amount of the time. I just don´t see how that is possible against a 66% VP$IP guy.

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With unknowns, I'm calling and being happy he doesn't have a full stack.

Against this villain, no way. He's so passive he's practically comatose and he calls preflop with all kinds of rubbish that now makes a good hand. I'm out of this one, and my passion seems to be getting stacked with Aces.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have 60 hands with villain!! His post flop aggression mean next to nothing. All I know is this guy is very rarely on paired cards pf. This means not felting AA for 80 bbs against this guy is incredibly weak-tight.

Let us look at some numbers. We need to win ~28% at showdown to make this call. If we are behind villain at this point his most likely holding by far is some random 2 pair, followed by a distant straight or a set. Against a 2 pair we have a solid 8 outs to awinner, meaning that IF we are behind villains range, we have to have the best hand a really tiny amount of the time. I just don´t see how that is possible against a 66% VP$IP guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

straight is not distant, it's so close you can feel its breath as it's about to bite you.

Stats don't mean nothing at this point, but your point that we may be over-valuing them is a good assertion. However, I have still almost never seen this passive of villain ever. Thus I would put faith in that outrageous of a low aggression factor just as I would a 70% VPIP after 60 hands even though it's a relatively low sample size (knowing it may go down to 60 or 50%, but it still means loose passive donkey)

[Imrahil]

There's no way you're ahead against villain here. Fold.

[DeuceSeven]

No way you're ahead, curse cause the guy check raised you. I fold. You're behind here at least 90% of the time.

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
We have 60 hands with villain!! His post flop aggression mean next to nothing. All I know is this guy is very rarely on paired cards pf. This means not felting AA for 80 bbs against this guy is incredibly weak-tight.



[/ QUOTE ]
No, we do in fact have some meaingful info on villain. He has played at least 40 hands, and he has shown almost 0 postflop aggression. Call me crazy, but I am ready to make some assumptions about this player, primarily that he is incredibly passive and would not c/r all-in without at least two pair. Could I be wrong? Sure, but this spot is not the time to figure that out.

[ QUOTE ]
Let us look at some numbers. We need to win ~28% at showdown to make this call. If we are behind villain at this point his most likely holding by far is some random 2 pair, followed by a distant straight or a set. Against a 2 pair we have a solid 8 outs to awinner, meaning that IF we are behind villains range, we have to have the best hand a really tiny amount of the time. I just don´t see how that is possible against a 66% VP$IP guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

A basic combo analysis shows that villain could have 90 combos for two pair (some unlikely) and 44 combos for a straight or set. I don't think you can call the straight and set a "distant" possibility. It is also FAR more likely for villain to push with set/straight rather than two pair so the 90-48 ratio is not really accurate. And when we are behind to a set or straight, we have 0 - 2 outs. No thanks. Time to fold.

-Andrew

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]

No, we do in fact have some meaingful info on villain. He has played at least 40 hands, and he has shown almost 0 postflop aggression. Call me crazy, but I am ready to make some assumptions about this player, primarily that he is incredibly passive and would not c/r all-in without at least two pair. Could I be wrong? Sure, but this spot is not the time to figure that out.


[/ QUOTE ]
A couple of points:

1. In his post on how to interpret PAHUD stats correctly Pokey uses 10000/VP$IP in order for the stat for post flop aggression to become meaningful. That is 167 hands. I contend we don´t have enough hands on villain to know reliably if villain can have tpgk here or not.

2. Villains VP$IP is 66%. If we assume he will call with any piece of the flop and bet/raise with tpgk, I don´t see any reason why he can´t end up with a post flop aggression of 0.2 over 60 hands. He will have precious little to bet or raise with. But he will call with bottom pairs, gut-shots, overcards etc. I´m sure the ratio could end up something like that. But again, what would villain do when he finally hits tpgk?

This thread boggles my mind. I think this is an incredibly easy call.

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

No, we do in fact have some meaingful info on villain. He has played at least 40 hands, and he has shown almost 0 postflop aggression. Call me crazy, but I am ready to make some assumptions about this player, primarily that he is incredibly passive and would not c/r all-in without at least two pair. Could I be wrong? Sure, but this spot is not the time to figure that out.


[/ QUOTE ]
A couple of points:

1. In his post on how to interpret PAHUD stats correctly Pokey uses 10000/VP$IP in order for the stat for post flop aggression to become meaningful. That is 167 hands. I contend we don´t have enough hands on villain to know reliably if villain can have tpgk here or not.

2. Villains VP$IP is 66%. If we assume he will call with any piece of the flop and bet/raise with tpgk, I don´t see any reason why he can´t end up with a post flop aggression of 0.2 over 60 hands. He will have precious little to bet or raise with. But he will call with bottom pairs, gut-shots, overcards etc. I´m sure the ratio could end up something like that. But again, what would villain do when he finally hits tpgk?

This thread boggles my mind. I think this is an incredibly easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

In order for hero to make a profit calling, villain would need to have a worse hand over 20% of the time (see math below). You would be hard pressed to find a crazy LAG that makes this play 20% of the time with only TPTK, let alone this guy. Yes, okay, we cannot get a 100% accurate read with only 60 hands...but come on man...this is a very simple hand reading exercise. The guy is passive. He is absolutely not going to have a worse hand 20% of the time. I would guess maybe something like 5% max. Anyway, check this out:

Villain's Hand | % Villain Has It | Hero's Chance to Win | EV

1 pr/Bluff | 20% | (42/46) | $10.36
2 pair | 50% | ( 8/46) | -$ 4.47
straight | 18.75% | ( 0/46) | -$ 4.35
set | 11.25% | ( 2/46) | -$ 2.21

Total EV -$ 0.67

Note 1: I gave villain four weighted outs when we are ahead since sometimes he will have an ace kicker, sometimes he is bluffing, sometimes he has a draw, etc...

Note 2: For justification of 2pr vs straight vs set % distribution, see my first post in this thread.

Note 3: I think this distribution breakdown is extremely optimistic in hero's favor. In my opinion, villain is likely to have a straight almost 50% of the time. And as I mentioned earlier, we are not ahead of this guy 1 out of 5 times. Maybe 1 out of 20.

-Andrew