How do I handle these situations? NL$25

[Miraculix]

Hi.
I have some problems knowing how to play accordingly in situations like these. These two hands came within 10 minutes yesterday and about 15 minutes before that I lost almost a buyin (with KK!) against a calling station hiting his 2-outer on the river, so my confidence was a little low....

Hand 1: Villain is 28/8 over 83 hands.

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.15/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.81
CO: $29.10
Button: $10.35
Hero: $28.25
BB: $32.55

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $1.5</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $18.5</font>, Hero??


Hand 2: Villain is 47/11 over 36 hands so...

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.15/$0.25
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $28.61
UTG+1: $20.20
CO: $5.70
Button: $5.40
Hero: $24.75
BB: $26.75

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $0.75</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $28.61</font>, 2 folds, Hero??

Do I call here and pray? It seems like AA to me but then again, I´m a bit weak-tight sometimes.

Greateful for any help.

// M

[travelinstygian]

Hero insta-calls

[Jouster777]

Hand 1: KK + avg./weak read + &lt;150 BBs + OOP = push
Hand 2: KK + avg./weak read + &lt;150 BBs = call

Sure its AA a lot...but not enough to fold.

[Sir Winalot]

1) shove
2) snapcall

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
1) shove
2) snapcall

[/ QUOTE ]

same here. At these levels (and I'd say probably at all levels) it's the most profitable play.

Yes, you can easily lose on those hands again with your KK which would give you an 0-fer-3 streak for KK. Been there done that. Still...

[homeslice]

1) insta-call
2) you could be up again AA, but at this level players will push AK, QQ as well. I call and hope a King falls.

[Panic__NL]

why dont i see the difference between hand 1 and 2, but i do see people give different answers for the 2 hands?

[TheCutter]

[ QUOTE ]
why dont i see the difference between hand 1 and 2, but i do see people give different answers for the 2 hands?

[/ QUOTE ]
Look better.

(Stack sizes vs bet sizes)

[rocco1999]

Yesterday i played two pretty much the same hands, once opponent had AA, once AK...

KK is always a call, unless u got a perfect read on villain.

[Wotsmycode]

shove shove shoe shove ALL DAY

[Wotsmycode]

[ QUOTE ]
Yesterday i played two pretty much the same hands, once opponent had AA, once AK...

KK is always a call, unless u got a perfect read on villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

kk is always shove at25nl unless they are uber nitty

[Miraculix]

Hi guys!!

Thanks for your comments. I must admit I folded both of them /images/graemlins/crazy.gif. So you´re saying that I should ALLWAYS play for my stack with KK, if my opponent isn´t a complete nit? Well, I´ll try that since you say that it´s +EV. But as I said: I´m a bit weak-tight sometimes.

Thanks

// M

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi guys!!

Thanks for your comments. I must admit I folded both of them /images/graemlins/crazy.gif. So you´re saying that I should ALLWAYS play for my stack with KK, if my opponent isn´t a complete nit? Well, I´ll try that since you say that it´s +EV. But as I said: I´m a bit weak-tight sometimes.

Thanks

// M

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost always. First, KK is only afraid of AA. The odds of someone holding AA at a full table when you have KK is 1 in 23. You'll still crack Aces every now and then as well (you're behind, but you aren't being killed).

Even with 2 K's accounted for, there are still more ways to make AK than AA. This alone is usually enough to get it in preflop unless you are very deep.

Even against a nit I'm never folding Kings preflop. I've only folded Kings once preflop, against an opponent that was 10/0/1.3 after 300 hands. And yes, he showed AA.

[crookdimwit]

I'm in for my stack on both hands.

The thing to consider is that sure, villain may have aces here sometimes, but often, hyper-aggro preflop like this means less than aces -- more like QQ, AK, KK, or even JJ. I see a lot of people with aces call a flat-call a preflop raise rahter than re-raise because they worry about not "getting paid" for their rockets. And he doesn't know you have kings in your spot, and may put you on a steal, or maybe something weaker like AQ, AK, etc... So he may think QQ is great here. Lots of people got hyper-aggro with JJ or QQ to spook out someone with big overcards or someone with TT - QQ...

[bmk67]

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of someone holding AA at a full table when you have KK is 1 in 23.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not quite exactly 1 in 23, as there are only 8/9 unknown hands (which are 220:1 against), but it's close enough for our purposes here.

It's not quite as simple as knowing the odds that someone else has been dealt AA. The action narrows the hand range quite a bit - and what is important here is not so much the odds that villain holds AA, but how KK stacks up against his range.

In both cases, villain has made it clear that he isn't going away - in the first hand he's not left himself enough behind to fold to a push, and in the second, he's left nothing behind at all. Villain is pot committed, and without a solid read, you can assume that he has a premium hand - and therefore the 22:1 odds against having pocket aces are irrelevant, what is important is what are the odds of him holding aces given his range in this situation and is the pot offering us correct odds given that range.

Unless you have a solid read that villain is making this move with AA/KK only (making the likelyhood of aces very high as there is only one way to make KK here, and six ways to make AA), you must push here. If AK is in his range your odds against his range are compelling. If any of the lower pairs or lesser unpaired hands are in his range it is only more so.

The only way I'm folding KK here is if I've got a solid-gold read that villain has AA or KK. Against an unknown or a lesser read I push every time.

[Miraculix]

OK.
I´ll keep your advice in mind next time this happens.

Thanks again

// M

[Shoot59]

What if Hero is holding QQ in both these hands...?
How bout AKs...?

[kerplunkNL]

[ QUOTE ]

Almost always. First, KK is only afraid of AA. The odds of someone holding AA at a full table when you have KK is 1 in 23. (...)

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry but this is such a non-argument. Why do you bring this up? It's not like if someone 3bets preflop and you hold KK that's it's only AA 1 in 23 times. This little fact is irrelevant.

OP, I think you will see a large amount of the time AA here. But also AK and QQ. Sometimes even AQ or a complete bluff. Also, a lot of villains like to slowplay AA preflop and won't go AI or reraise preflop. I think at these levels (maybe any level?), barring a solid read, you have to call this w/ KK.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry but this is such a non-argument. Why do you bring this up? It's not like if someone 3bets preflop and you hold KK that's it's only AA 1 in 23 times. This little fact is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it's very relevant. Everyone seems so afraid that they're running into AA. However the fact is that even if you consider your opponents and their betting/raising patterns, their range is most likely much wider than AA.

Poker is a game of statistics. Play it like one. Someone 3-betting you preflop doesn't always mean AA. 1 time in 23 someone else will have AA when you have KK. If you are 3-bet, then you can narrow down the range that your villain is on but immediately assuming that his hand is most likely AA is a huge statistical mistake. Consider all possible hand holdings and give each a weighted value based on villains betting patterns. The plain fact of it is that a 3-bet can mean a wide number of hands, and out of the total of all possible combinations that villain may hold AA is relatively rare for all but the most nitty villains.

KK v. AA preflop is just a nuisance. Not getting it in with Kings as fast as possible is a leak in all but the deepest games against the tightest opponents.

[bmk67]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker is a game of statistics. Play it like one. Someone 3-betting you preflop doesn't always mean AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's expand on this, borrowing from what I said earlier. Recall that I said that I would fold here only if I knew villain would make this play with aces or kings. Why?

When you hold kings, there are six ways for villain to have aces, and only one to have kings. If no other hands are in his range, we're a huge dog 6 times in 7, and a huge favorite 1 time in 7. Unless the pot is offering us tremendous odds to overcome the fact that we are way behind villain's range, we fold.

Few players are that nitty, however. Observe what happens when villain includes QQ and AK in his range as well - when we hold KK, there are 6 ways to make QQ and 8 ways to make AK. Now we're a huge dog 6 times in 21, a coin flip 1 in 21, and and a substantial favorite the rest of the time. Calling or pushing here is always +EV here, because we're way ahead of villain's range. If we win the expected percentage of times we're ahead, this is +EV even if we never win when we're behind.

Now imagine what happens if you add lesser hands to the range. I've seen enough donkeys 3BAI with AJo and lesser crap to know that calling with kings is a moneymaker at these levels. Variance is a bitch, but that's why you play at a level your roll can sustain.