NL50: Overplayed? Missed Value Bet?

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Villain seemed drunk or something. Over 93 hands he is 68/8/0.56. Terrible to say the least. In the session he dropped 3 buyins. How's my line on this one? Preflop I am just calling to hit a flop against him seeing as how he calls every bet down to the river most of the time without raising. His preflop raise made me think a medium pair 77-JJ so I wanted to see where I was at with a check raise on the flop, probably a bad idea in the long run. Did I overplay my top pair on the turn? Also should I have thrown a value bet in on the river considering the read I had on the guy?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($120.35)</font>
UTG ($151.85)
MP ($9.55)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($46)</font>
Button ($69.75)
SB ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, CO calls $5.

Turn: ($18.25) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, CO calls $12.

River: ($42.25) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: $42.25

[Wolfram]

I'm gonna rewrite my analysis.

Preflop
In a vacuum I'd strongly suggest folding because you're oop and will miss most flops but you say he'll call down with anything so you have implied odds to hit a flop.

Flop
You've hit a pretty strong hand. Our only worry is that his pfr-range isn't very wide (he's probably not raising suited connectors) so let's put him on 55+, AT+, KQ+. You beat most of these. His bet could be anything from a c-bet to a feeler bet with weak top pair/middle pockets to a monster like a set. If we were in position I'd suggest just a call, but since we're oop we'll lose value by doing that so a check/raise is fine. He calls which probably isn't surprising given your read.

Turn
T/images/graemlins/heart.gif is a pretty safe card. It only completes J9 or 69 for a straight but it could have hit his pocket pair to give him a set. Now there's also a flush draw out there. You're check/raise showed immense strength so you really have to bet the turn and you might very well still be ahead. Check/raising a flop and then just checking the turn is very exploitable by aggressive opponents (which this one isn't) but we're mostly interested in value.

River:
2/images/graemlins/spade.gif is a total brick. It changes nothing, but no worse hand than yours "should" call a bet on the river, so a check is fine to (a)keep the pot managable and (b) maybe induce a bluff from worse pairs or missed draws.

I think this hand was played fine given your read. Vs. a more normal loose/weak opponent I'd rather just bet out on the flop, bet out again on the turn and then check/call the river.

[blackize]

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Over 93 hands he is 68/8/0.56

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KQo is way behind the just about any 8% of hands and reverse implied odds hurt it pretty badly.



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he calls every bet down to the river most of the time without raising. His preflop raise made me think a medium pair 77-JJ

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Why not QQ-AA AJ AQ or AK? It's a pretty huge leak to put people on a favorable range all the time and you seem to have completely disregarded hands that have you dominated.

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I wanted to see where I was at with a check raise on the flop, probably a bad idea in the long run.

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Definitely a bad idea in the long run. First his aggression is super low. He may or may not continuation bet frequently as some low aggression players Cbet a lot but call down otherwise. Second your read on him is that he is a calling station. A checkraise tells you nothing except that he's a calling station.