big draw vs flop c/r min

[DaAznFella]

villain is looking like a lagtard: 45/20/3 over 250 hands.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
8 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $209.75
Hero (BB): $64.35
UTG: $14.20
UTG+1: $59.95
MP1: $55.70
MP2: $49.25

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif ($0.75, 8 players)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, UTG folds, SB calls $1.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif ($5, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $3

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif [3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] ($17, 4 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $11</font>, Hero calls $11

<font color="black">River:</font> 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif [9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] ($39, 4 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $20</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $20 returned to SB

should i be pushing this flop? or the turn? i'm normally 3betting this flop all-in but i dont' think villain is folding on the flop ever, and I'll still get paid on the turn/river if i hit

[Pokey]

I raise more preflop. Considering that you are OOP versus UTG I want to charge the maximum. In this situation my standard preflop raise is 6xBB, so I'd make it $3 to go instead of $2.

On the flop your c-bet was too small -- with two opponents I'd probably have bet $4 or $5 into a $5 pot.

After the minraise you have two choices, and neither of them is smooth-call.

1. Push. It's never far wrong to three-bet all-in with these situations, but in this case your three-bet is a SIGNIFICANT overbet to the pot, unlikely to be called by anything that you really want to see. I think that's a bit frisky for this pot. Still, even with ZERO folding equity (which I think is completely wrong) your play is still +EV because you will have an absolute crapload of outs.

2. Make a three-bet, then push any turn. This is a scary, scary move for you, but it's even scarier for your opponent. The idea is that you raise the flop to $18 (a pot-sized raise) and then open-push the turn for your last $40 (a pot-sized bet). This choice has many powerful advantages. First, it looks even more like a set and even less like the draw that it is. Second, your folding equity is slightly lower on the flop but still powerfully high on the turn, meaning that you'll often break off an extra $12 bet before your opponent folds his hand. Third, it gets you more action on your flopped monsters (which you would also play this way). Fourth, it gives you more folding equity later on when you make reasonable pot-sized bets and raises, since your opponent knows he could always be playing for all the chips. Fifth, it gets the money in aggressively but without ever overbetting the pot, so that your play looks more traditional and you will often have many outs when called. Sixth, the turn is unlikely to help your opponent, so it will present him with a strong chance to get away from the hand, giving you a fat pot without a contest. Players often find continued aggression scarier than one-time overaggression -- take advantage of that here. (Incidentally, if villain four-bets all-in on the flop you instacall: your hand will be best often enough that you've got the odds to call.)

I know how hard it is to push a draw unimproved on the turn, but realize that on that turn you'll still have many outs and you'll also have VERY much folding equity. Give it a try -- you might find that you like it.

[DaAznFella]

[ QUOTE ]
The idea is that you raise the flop to $18 (a pot-sized raise) and then open-push the turn for your last $40 (a pot-sized bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokey, you're the man, thanks for the advice. But i'm 2nd to act. I'm assuming villain is either mucking to the 3bet on the flop or calling then checking, so I can shove, but what if he calls and leads the turn? Still a push?

[Pokey]

Woof, my bad.

Somehow, I missed that completely, and it really changes everything.

With position, I actually like your play MUCH better. On the flop you're calling with PLENTY of pot odds. On the turn you also have damn-near pot odds to call, and certainly the implied odds to do so. On the river your hand is obviously no good, so you fold.

I'm really sorry about that -- this is just one of those hands that plays TOTALLY different in position than it does OOP.

Editing to say: if villain checks to you on the turn or river, you've got to lead. Make it 2/3rds pot on either street. The benefit of having position is that you can win by having a hand or you can win by having your opponent give up. In this case he kept firing and firing, so if he had the goods, you just have to give it to him. At least he kept giving you the odds to continue with your monster draw....

[_TKO_]

Still, Pokey, thanks for the OOP advice here.

[DaAznFella]

Pokey do you think calling here in position is favorable to trying to get it ai right on the flop? Or on a blank turn?

[lippy]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokey do you think calling here in position is favorable to trying to get it ai right on the flop? Or on a blank turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to put words in Pokey's mouth, but you have practically no fold equity. I think Hero played it well after he was c/r'd. Villain's line surely beats him and his high pair draws are almost never live in this situation, thus he's playing his draw.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokey do you think calling here in position is favorable to trying to get it ai right on the flop? Or on a blank turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to put words in Pokey's mouth, but you have practically no fold equity. I think Hero played it well after he was c/r'd. Villain's line surely beats him and his high pair draws are almost never live in this situation, thus he's playing his draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I a big advocate for folding equity. I think many people overestimate it at the tables, but I think many 2+2ers underestimate it in HH reviews. A push on this flop is such a massive overbet that it certainly carries some folding equity. Your opponent would have to have balls of solid titanium to call a $53 push into a $17 pot with a small overpair or TPTK.

No, the reason I suggest that calling is better than getting it all-in on the flop is because of what you said in your original post: "I'll still get paid on the turn/river if i hit." I'm assuming this is coming from a fairly solid read (good assumption or bad?), and if it is there's no reason to get it all in as a 55% favorite when you can get it all in as a 95% favorite on the turn or river. By NOT pushing the flop you save yourself $45 on those hands that turn out the way this one did. If you really do double up every time you hit a club, and if you're really willing to at least call down (if not push him all in) when you hit a K or A, then playing it passively with position isn't bad at all.

Forcing your opponent to choose between folding a big bet or taking a coinflip is a good thing, but I'd rather double up when I have the goods and save my cash when I don't. The concept at play here is "Reverse Implied Odds," and it was a concept of the week (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Board=microplnl&amp;Number=8121403) a while back. The difference is that in this case it is your OPPONENT who suffers from RIO, and that's a good thing for you.

[bozzer]

Excellent thread. One of the few HH reviews that is going in my favourites. Thanks everyone! (Especially Pokey.)