FR: Ladies night

[Berge20]

Villian is fairly solid player who I've seen make some rather basic TAG type moves.

I am playing tight and have shown down only good hands this session.

My thoughts,

Limp call + very small CR from a TAG on the flop gave me cause for concern. AJs potentially was in the range, so I came along.

Turn doesn't change much for my hand, other than putting me anead of a J8 hand that I dont expect and I elect to take the free card to try and get to SD cheaper. Then the river lead overbet....

Question:
1) What range to you put the villian on after the turn?
2) After the river bet, what hands in that range can I beat?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($26.60)
Button ($31)
SB ($16.15)
BB ($5)
UTG ($25.40)
UTG+1 ($5.75)
MP1 ($16.95)
MP2 ($41.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $1.

Flop: ($2.85) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $5.75</font>, Hero calls $3.50.

Turn: ($14.35) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($14.35) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $24</font>, Hero ???.

Final Pot: $38.35

[Unknown Soldier]

wouldnt he raise AJ up? JJ I'd imagine he would.

66/88 are the only hands that seem to make sense for a TAG. I'd fold the river, looks like he desperately trying to build a pot up.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
wouldnt he raise AJ up? JJ I'd imagine he would.

66/88 are the only hands that seem to make sense for a TAG. I'd fold the river, looks like he desperately trying to build a pot up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, maybe 99 if he was trying to pick off a CB on the flop, maybe a donked-up AA/KK. In any case you are really looking at a bluff catcher only after the river bet, I think. Feels nothing like AJ to me.

[Berge20]

Thanks for the input

[Fallen00]

looks like you are beat.. I think a bet on turn would have changed everything in this hand, you would have known where you would have been, most likely.

a)66 88 aa kk jj j9 air
b)66 20% 88 20% aa/kk/qq/jj 20% j8/j6 20% air 20%

given action, I think he wanted to check raise you on the turn and you checked.. so now he overbets river hoping to get a call from you.

you're beat here more often than not. He really doesnt give you odds for a call with an overpair.. you folded right? if not.. id like to see what he had :P

I might be way off.. but trying to help :P

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is fairly solid player who I've seen make some rather basic TAG type moves.

[/ QUOTE ]
Fold the river.

[Oranzith]

grunch -

villain likely has a middle pocket pair IMO. makes sense for the limp / call. minraise now makes it look like 99+ and figures you took a standard cbet, and wants to see if she can take the pot away (although I am not convinced by your read of TAG. limping? calling? overbetting? minraising? looks like a fish to me)

BET THAT TURN PLEEAAAASE. that is a VERY good scare-card for you, if you bet this i guarantee you take this down +50% of the time. even then, its a decent semibluff with QQ

gotta fold river

[Berge20]

To those advocating I bet the turn...

What does that bet accomplish?

The turn card does nothing to change the situation. Either I'm still well ahead of a AJ (which I now agree is less likely), a random PP, or random hand....or I am drawing to 2 outs. In my view a turn bet after being Check-Raised on this type of flop is spew.

Sure, maybe I'll save myself from being bluffed off every so often on the river, but I'm in position. Mostly I'm losing any hand I'm ahead of and just shoveling money away when I'm behind.

Am I off?

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
To those advocating I bet the turn...

What does that bet accomplish?

The turn card does nothing to change the situation. Either I'm still well ahead of a AJ (which I now agree is less likely), a random PP, or random hand....or I am drawing to 2 outs. In my view a turn bet after being Check-Raised on this type of flop is spew.

Sure, maybe I'll save myself from being bluffed off every so often on the river, but I'm in position. Mostly I'm losing any hand I'm ahead of and just shoveling money away when I'm behind.

Am I off?

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I agree with you and would not bet the turn..The danger and benefit of checking is to induce a bluff and collect 1 more bet on the river from a weaker...

In most cases after checking the turn you MUST call the bet on the river..This big of an over bet I think will be a J, other random one pair hands and air enough to be +EV..

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To those advocating I bet the turn...

What does that bet accomplish?

The turn card does nothing to change the situation. Either I'm still well ahead of a AJ (which I now agree is less likely), a random PP, or random hand....or I am drawing to 2 outs. In my view a turn bet after being Check-Raised on this type of flop is spew.

Sure, maybe I'll save myself from being bluffed off every so often on the river, but I'm in position. Mostly I'm losing any hand I'm ahead of and just shoveling money away when I'm behind.

Am I off?

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I agree with you and would not bet the turn..The danger and benefit of checking is to induce a bluff and collect 1 more bet on the river from a weaker...

In most cases after checking the turn you MUST call the bet on the river..This big of an over bet I think will be a J, other random one pair hands and air enough to be +EV..

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, Villain sounds like the type of kinda nitty "beginner" TAG who can't stand the idea of not stacking somebody with his set or KK/AA, and when he whiffed the turn c/c or c/r, he insisted on getting it in on the river. There are certainly opponents I'd call real fast against, but I really don't think this is one of them.

[Berge20]

Since I can't f'n sleep...

I chose to fold. Flop CR wasnt trying to blow me off anything and it seemed very plausible that villian happily checked a turned boat and didnt think I could release my hand...hence the river overbet.

Quite frankly, I probably would have folded to a 1/2 pot bet on the river.