CBet the flop or use the PT stats? (theory)

[King Spew]

I play a few hours every night on Full Tilt. I'll play 2-4 tables at a time, but mine up to the 16 table max at all times. I will even mine if I'm not playing, though I only mine during the timeframe that I would normally play.

I play in position. /images/graemlins/cool.gif Usually for a PFR /images/graemlins/grin.gif. I CBet just about every time. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

During play, I will have PAHUD showing "Folds to CBet"... as well as other stats. What I don't have is notes on 99% of my opps that shows whether they fold to a second barrel.... thus my quandry.

Let's say it's limped to me, or I open on the button with a 4X PFR and get one caller. Both have 100-120BB behind. The flop misses me (typical /images/graemlins/laugh.gif), but I have position.

(READS ON VILLAIN: 1500 hands mostly mined, no notes so it's either mostly mined, or villain played a fairly standard game that has not been noteworthy. Now this particular villain calls CBets at a 50% clip... definately a higher call percentage than most that I play against.)

Villain, I assume, has numbers on me also.... probably showing a large percentage of CBets and about 50% second barrelling.


<font color="blue">I have started to change my play against this particular type of villain and need some advice.

I have found that a flop check behind followed by a c/PSB on the turn gets me the pot 90% of the time. At the very least, I get a cheap river</font>

<font color="purple">Scenerio 1: If I had CBet and villain calls, turn is a brick and I would "usually" c/c, villain will take the pot away from me on the river. QUESTION #1: WHEN DO YOU DBLBARREL WITHOUT SPECIFIC READS? </font>

<font color="red">SCENERIO #2 I don't CBet and villain PSBs the turn. On a purely numbers basis (because we have no notes?), do you call/raise if villain's agg factor is above 3.0? (arbitrary number). Is it hand quality based at that point vs. playing the opponent? If you have a hidden draw, do you take the worst of the immediate pot odds for the likelihood of implied stackage? </font>

Part of the equations that have clouded my judgement is that when a 50% "Call CBet" kinda villain calls me, then we get to showdown, I see all kinds of garbage about 50% of the time, but usually one of two things: a pretty good draw OR some sort of Ace high crap that totally missed also. Sooooooooo, I'm thinking there is 50% chance he has a hand, and 50% he doesn't. (Is this skewed?) I feel like if I CBet, I'll win 50% but if I delay the CBet until the turn, I'm winning 90%.

For you <font color="blue">GRUNCHERS</font>:
You have position on a single villain that calls cbets at a high percentage. What's your play?

[Bowlboy]

all good questions. None of which I have answers for. My question should probably be in the software forum but why wouldnt PAHUD be able to display stats for % of time villain folds to a 2nd barrel? This would be extremely useful. A little o/t but I also wish that there were stats on PAHUD relating to how villain reacts to a donk bet on the flop. Example: A couple of limpers PF, then button raises, and 1 limper calls. On the flop the limper leads into the PFR. What is the percentage of the time that the PFR will fold/call/raise this? This would also be very useful.

As for your last question, I may be too weak-tight but I often find myself giving up on flops that I miss against these types of players. When I hit TPGK+ I usually PSB the flop and the turn.

[bozzer]

These questions deserve more than this superficial answer, but I do find the delayed C-bet to be a very effective tool, which isn't much discussed.

It has the advantages of:
- Giving them less reason to find to call you (with only one card to come)
- It keeps the pot smaller (only one street to come)

Some disadvantages:
- Gives them another card to hit their hand (but also yours)
- You may get 'donked into' on the turn if people decide they can steal the pot.
- Bad for meta when you want to bet the flop for value.

I don't use PA HUD, so I can't answer the more technical questions.

[munkey]

I double barrel small PPs or AJ+ e.g 88 on Qxx flop with one overcard sometimes vs these types -I have 'showdown' value and if called I'm done but often their weak hands can't stand much heat.

I avoid wet boards to double barrel.

Scenario 2:
I fold here alot - we have 1 card to come and less chance to hit so I think calling with overs e.t.c may be bad though I do it sometimes.


Recently I have been on several tables with 50% vpvips and cbet way less just for image/build a pot because I was getting called all the time and facing those ghey 20% tun and river bets. I just vbet TP all streets (a la NLHTAP)and check raise big (I normally c/r v little) as they seem to still call.

I still am not sure of the proper adjustments to a 4x 50% table as I still PFR a fair chunk but may limp toomuch speculative stuff.

[ValarMorghulis]

I think not cbetting is often good against this kind of villain. Don't bet unless you have something. Folding turn to a bet is fine. Don't feel you have to win/try to win every pot that you pfr.

I don't see why a delayed cbet is so much better than a flop cbet as if he calls flop with A high he'll probably call turn. The only thing is that he is unlikely to have a strong hand after checking twice.

[Pokey]

OK, I have several comments. They're not answers to your EXACT questions, but they deal with the key issues.

1. Even if your opponent only folds 50% of the time to a c-bet, you still have a +EV play by betting 100% of flops. First of all, my standard c-bet size is 3/4ths-pot, rather than full pot, and it's players like this that make that my standard c-bet. If I have air and I fire 3/4ths-pot, and if villain folds 50% of the time, then my bet is immediately +EV: once I lose 3/4ths pot and once I win the full pot, so I have an IMMEDIATE +1/8th-pot EV every single time I make this c-bet with air. Add in the times that I catch lucky on the turn or river and this is safely a +EV play.

2. The play you described -- check behind flop, bet turn -- is called a "delayed c-bet." Against a very tricky opponent it can be a good choice, but against a standard uNL opponent it's a mistake, even though it LOOKS successful. Here's why: you believe that your opponent will fold to a c-bet 50% of the time but he folds to your delayed c-bet 90% of the time. That sounds like a great situation for you until you realize that they are NOT the same scenario! In the delayed c-bet situation, your opponent has to check TWICE before you can steal the pot. It doesn't take a ridiculously aggressive opponent to fire a shot on the turn after the preflop raiser checks behind, especially if the turn card is a brick. In these situations you'll usually fold your air and pat yourself on the back for having "avoided a trap." In reality, your opponent has often simply seized control of the hand and taken advantage of the "right of first bluff" to push you off your hand, knowing full well that neither of you has anything. On those occasions where your opponent does not have the balls to fire a bet even on the turn then yes, he's going to give up very often.

3. When you raise preflop, your opponent has to work to win. Your opponent has to hit something in order to succeed in the hand. Now, with a relatively loose opponent who calls 50% of c-bets, he will often still be speculating on the turn, calling with a naked overcard or two, or calling with a tiny pair, or any piece of the board, or any bizarre draw. It will be hard to get a feel for this type of player, but if my opponent checks to me on the turn and I'm still unimproved I'm a big fan of betting two types of cards: complete bricks and obvious scare cards. Complete bricks are going to be an undercard to the board that doesn't add to a straight or a pair for the board's bottom or middle card. These cards are unlikely to have improved your opponent in any meaningful way, and therefore unlikely to have given him an incentive to continue with the hand. Scare cards are overcards to the board (especially an A, K, or Q) or third/fourth flush cards (note: straight cards are not as scary, because for some reason nobody ever believes that anybody ever gets a straight). When you bet these cards, your opponent can easily convince himself that you were "betting on the come" at the flop, and that you've just hit your gin card, and your bet will push him off his hand quite often.

In general I'm betting the flop nearly 100% of the time against a single opponent after I raised preflop. Unless my opponent is a platinum-card calling station or an ultra-trixy check-raise fanatic, I'm firing that first bullet. Even if they only fold 50% of the time, it's a safely +EV play. When momentum's on your side, don't give up the right of first bluff!