25NL: bluff-raise on river

[Djeorge]

Villain was 53/8/1.8 over 160 hands. His river bet basically said "I don't have a J" so I figured a raise would be good here. Thoughts? I think the flop and turn called were probably standard, but comments welcome on that too.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($43.35)
UTG ($14.30)
Hero ($32.60)
SB ($13.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $1</font>, Hero calls $1, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($3.25) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2</font>, Hero calls $2.

River: ($7.25) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $24.75

[Sir Winalot]

I usually raise flop. I think river is fine, but I probably wouldn't do it most of the time.

[underthesky]

I would raise or fold this before the flop since you're so shorthanded.

Congrats on pulling off the river bluff. This is a more suitable move against tighter players than UTG. Personally, I would never be brave enough to bluff like this against a player with a VPIP of 53. Plus, it's not a habit you want to get into at 25NL.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise or fold this before the flop since you're so shorthanded.

Congrats on pulling off the river bluff. This is a more suitable move against tighter players than UTG. Personally, I would never be brave enough to bluff like this against a player with a VPIP of 53. Plus, it's not a habit you want to get into at 25NL.

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling preflop is ok with a limper before. I'm not saying that raising would be wrong, but IMO call &gt; raise. Actually, the vpip doesn't tell that much of how much he calls the river. I think his wtsd and w$sd would be better stats to use here.

[Djeorge]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would raise or fold this before the flop since you're so shorthanded.

Congrats on pulling off the river bluff. This is a more suitable move against tighter players than UTG. Personally, I would never be brave enough to bluff like this against a player with a VPIP of 53. Plus, it's not a habit you want to get into at 25NL.

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling preflop is ok with a limper before. I'm not saying that raising would be wrong, but IMO call &gt; raise. Actually, the vpip doesn't tell that much of how much he calls the river. I think his wtsd and w$sd would be better stats to use here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah you're right about the irrelevancy (word?) of the VPIP here. I didn't even look at the wtsd or w$sd stats at the time, I just sort of insta-raised. He did fold, but I was left wondering whether I was just folding out a bluff/busted draw/worse hand. I suppose a better 5 or 66-88 sort of hand might've folded but meh.

[Bowlboy]

In general, I think bluff raising this river isnt bad given how weak a river bet by opponent, just wondering if $15 is too much though. If a PSR would get the job done in folding out hands that cannot beat trip jacks just as often or close to it as your raise to $15 then doesnt that make it +EV? I think that a PSR might actually be given a little bit more credit.