25NL -- AQs in the sb

[Bort99]

No read. I've been 5-tabling instead of 3, and I think my game benefits from the natural tightening process even if reads suffer.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $19.25
UTG+1: $28.95
CO: $13.75
Button: $25.25
Hero: $25
BB: $23.80

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $0.85</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3</font>

When I have a good holding in the blinds and I'm facing a button raise, I tend to reraise because it's so likely that the button's holding is weak. Bad habit? Just setting myself up to play a lot of raised pots OOP?

BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $6</font> (Uh oh.)
Hero calls. (Well, I've probably got odds to call a minraise.)


Flop: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($12.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $19.85</font>

Say I bet $9. If he pushes I'm very nearly getting the odds to call if a diamond is my only out. (Although it's true that I'm nearly dead to KK.) Decent semi-bluff or spew?

[SCBielski]

Good lord, this is a leak. Take a flop with AQ, you are only getting yourself into trouble here. He might not have all that strong a hand, lucky for you. I'd have to say this looks like he's trying to buy respect for his button raises because I doubt he minraises with JJ+. The flop bet is a nice semi-bluff cover up for your bad play preflop, but in reality you're only getting called by a hand that has you at least 60%/40% or worse. Take a flop with AQ when OOP, holla.

[the_muppeteer]

If he has KK, AA or AK there's almost no way he is folding to this, and his reraise preflop sugest this is what he has.

If he has one of these hands you only have the flush outs, and your betting 19.85 to win 12.25, why not check and see if he gives you a cheap turn? If your gonna get it all in you might as well take that line, seeing that he'll probably call you no mather what you do.

[TheSalche]

Especially with no reads ... 3-bet OOP is fine if he's been stealing your blinds alot, but this is ugly.

[Bort99]

Anyone else -- comments both pf and flop? To those who classify reraising pf with AQs a leak, would you reraise with AKo? What about TT?

[bozzer]

I think you played the hand very well. Restealing is something you'll be doing more at higher stakes I believe, but you have to be comfortable OOP. I would think very hard about folding to the rereraise though. Min-bet or not you are dead in the water to a substantial part of his range: QQ, AA, AK, and only have marginal odds against KK. (what else might he hold? (TT)JJ+, KQ+, AQ+ and that's about it right?)

[poker_n00b]

Reraising with AA, KK is standard. Reraising other hands depends on the player. Still, OOP I just call AK and AQ vs semi decent player.

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
Good lord, this is a leak. Take a flop with AQ, you are only getting yourself into trouble here. He might not have all that strong a hand, lucky for you. I'd have to say this looks like he's trying to buy respect for his button raises because I doubt he minraises with JJ+. The flop bet is a nice semi-bluff cover up for your bad play preflop, but in reality you're only getting called by a hand that has you at least 60%/40% or worse. Take a flop with AQ when OOP, holla.

[/ QUOTE ]


learning to 3bet with more than KK+ isnt a leak, nit.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
Take a flop with AQ when OOP, holla.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure this is bad advice, but the consensus so far seems to be that it is not. Would love more comments on this.

[MortenTA]

Against a know BTN-stealer I don't hate the preflop 3 bet, but since we dont know the range of Villain I don't like it.

When villain 4 bets I think we have an easy laydown preflop. Our reversed implied odds are bad in this situation. Im thinking villains range here is AK and JJ+..

against this range you are :

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.1221 % 34.91% 00.21% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 64.8779 % 64.66% 00.21% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Lets try to see how your EV is in this situation. Below are the assumptions on which I am basing the EV calculation.

<ul type="square"> Villain will lay down JJ and QQ 50% of the time and call 50%
Villain never lays down AK, AA or KK
Villain will have nothing 12,5% of the time and fold
The chance of villain having JJ, QQ, KK or AA is the same even though hero has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Villain has JJ, QQ, KK or AA 50% of the time ( each 12,5%)
Villain has AK 37,5% of the time
[/list]

The calculation will be as follows:

JJ,QQ:0.5*(32.1*(0.477)-19.85*(0.523))+0.5*(12.25)= 8,5$

AA,KK: (32.1*(0.177)-19.85*(0.823))= -10,6$

AK: (32.1*(0.342)-19.85*(0.658))= -2,1$

bluff/crap: 12,5$

All in all this will be: 0,25(8,5)+ 0,25(-10,6) + 0,375(-2,1) + 0,125(12,5) = 0,23$

With the assumptions listed above your AI on the flop is close to breakeven...

[lacrymosa]

[ QUOTE ]
No read. I've been 5-tabling instead of 3, and I think my game benefits from the natural tightening process even if reads suffer.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $19.25
UTG+1: $28.95
CO: $13.75
Button: $25.25
Hero: $25
BB: $23.80

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $0.85</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3</font>

When I have a good holding in the blinds and I'm facing a button raise, I tend to reraise because it's so likely that the button's holding is weak. Bad habit? Just setting myself up to play a lot of raised pots OOP?

BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $6</font> (Uh oh.)
Hero calls. (Well, I've probably got odds to call a minraise.)


Flop: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($12.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $19.85</font>

Say I bet $9. If he pushes I'm very nearly getting the odds to call if a diamond is my only out. (Although it's true that I'm nearly dead to KK.) Decent semi-bluff or spew?

[/ QUOTE ]

PF is fine. Not a fan of the open push as only hands that beat you will call. I probably c/c flop.

[Pocket Trips]

pushing this flop against a 3bet preflop is just asking for trouble. Most people on these levels don't 3 bet w/o at least JJ or better. I would try to see the turn cheaply and depending on his actions maybe bet out on the turn(even if the flush misses) if he makes a weak flop bet.

His 3bet gives a push here very little fold equity which is really what you are hoping for here.

[Bort99]

Thanks for the analysis, everyone, and especially Morten. Seems like check/call turn push would be better than the flop push.

[Triggerle]

What's with the 3-bet hate? Do we 3-bet only AA on this forum? I like the 3-bet pre-flop. We are OOP so making him fold pre-flop or having the initiative on the flop are what we can accomplish with this.

I'd fold to the 4-bet. Both of the goals of our 3-bet can't be accomplished anymore and we can only play the hand for accidentally flopping a monster.