25NL: River overbet, how often am I good here

[TheSalche]

Villain in the hand is 49/12.2/1.75 over 50 or so hands, he's pretty donkish and loose preflop. How are flop/turn bets? How often is my two pair good here on the river? Pretty much any king is in this guy's range.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($24.90)
Button ($31.55)
SB ($25.85)
BB ($41.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($2.25) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, SB calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.25) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, SB calls $4.

River: ($13.25) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $19.35 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $18.40 (All-In).

Final Pot: $51

[CobraGoat]

like, very rarely. villain is maximizing his longterm expectation here.

[KLJ]

you beat a bluff. he is never VB a worse hand.

how often is he bluffing? hopefully/probably not 40% of the time

[TheSalche]

Does it matter that earlier I folded JJ on a KxK board after a different fired PSB on the river and showed ace high?

[MortenTA]

I would say close to never.. you should fold here

[Bring_Me_Down]

[ QUOTE ]
like, very rarely. villain is maximizing his longterm expectation here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much it. Easy fold, knowing plrs in NL25

[CobraGoat]

i think your giving your opps too much credit for making plays like this based on a single past hand of yours.

[TheSalche]

Allright, well although apparently I should've folded, I called and he showed pretty much what I expected, K9