jogsxyz
01-03-2006, 12:30 AM
Disagree with his conclusion. Chan says one should bluff one time in nine on the river. The pot size was 8bb. Bet is 1bb. The bluff frequency is also a function of the probability of the villain making the hand.
Examples.
A) Board: AdTh6h, 2s, 2d
The villain should never bluff. The hero will always call. Hero wont believe villain has a duece.
B) Board: AdTh6h, 2s, 2h
Now the villain can bluff. For every nine times he makes the flush, he can bluff once on a fake flush.
Villain's bluffing frequency is a function of 3 variables, not just 2. Also this number will be smaller than 1/9.
1/10 of the times villain is betting, he's bluffing.
Examples.
A) Board: AdTh6h, 2s, 2d
The villain should never bluff. The hero will always call. Hero wont believe villain has a duece.
B) Board: AdTh6h, 2s, 2h
Now the villain can bluff. For every nine times he makes the flush, he can bluff once on a fake flush.
Villain's bluffing frequency is a function of 3 variables, not just 2. Also this number will be smaller than 1/9.
1/10 of the times villain is betting, he's bluffing.