25NL: QQ preflop thing.(LC)

[Check_The_Nuts]

Against a 40/6 fish. WTF is his range? He's seen me just call an UTG raise with QQ, and I think I've reraised orginal preflop raises twice (because he's quite loose). I have no idea what this guy is thinking.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($39.70)
MP ($19.90)
Hero ($62.20)
Button ($23.30)
SB ($31.55)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $4.25</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $1.75.

Flop: ($9.60) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $5</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $14.60

[holdme]

aa,kk,ak I'd say.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
aa,kk,ak I'd say.

[/ QUOTE ]
so fold preflop?

[the machine]

standard. he doesnt raise alot and he just 4 bet you preflop. i call and play for set value. flop is an easy c/f

[Dynamic]

preflop- call is good. hes pretty strong to rereraise
postflop- AK or AA. Fold.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
standard. he doesnt raise alot and he just 4 bet you preflop. i call and play for set value. flop is an easy c/f

[/ QUOTE ]

odds aren't there to call for set value? I'll have to put in 1/5th of my stack :/.


errr his stack, I have lots of monies!!! ;-)

[Fazz86]

standard with his pfr stat. 4 bet puts him on a range that most likely includes an A.

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
standard. he doesnt raise alot and he just 4 bet you preflop. i call and play for set value. flop is an easy c/f

[/ QUOTE ]

odds aren't there to call for set value? I'll have to put in 1/5th of my stack :/.


errr his stack, I have lots of monies!!! ;-)

[/ QUOTE ]


ummm no you dont have to put in 1/5 of a stack, you have to put in 1.75, into an 8$ pot 4:1 = teh odds, and im calling here even if i didnt have the odds.

[kitaristi0]

Fold to the 4-bet preflop.

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to the 4-bet preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

you better be like 4th leveling me here

[kitaristi0]

[ QUOTE ]
and im calling here even if i didnt have the odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you like making -EV plays? I hope you are 4th leveling me.

[Check_The_Nuts]

call 1.75 all the time
1 out of 8 times I hit my set-&gt;win $23
7 out of 8 times I miss and check/fold -&gt; lose the $1.75

7x2=14 bucks, and I'll make 23 dollars whenever I hit, so yeah I gotta call preflop.

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and im calling here even if i didnt have the odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you like making -EV plays? I hope you are 4th leveling me.

[/ QUOTE ]


you are seriously folding QQ to a minraise preflop??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!11111111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

11

and youd be surprised how many times this is JJ.

i folded KK preflop to a loose super passive player before. he was lke 60/2 over a decent sample size and he 5 bet me preflop so i folded. he shows AQ offsuit. people are just too ignorant at this level to let go of these hands.

my point that im not folding if i dont have the odds is saying that if im getting 3:1 oe 2:1 im still making the preflop call because of how silly people can actually be.

and in this case it is a clear call getting 4:1. folding is the -EV play

[Check_The_Nuts]

machine, your all over the place. Now I should push preflop?

[kitaristi0]

Um, you assumed you always stack him when you flop a set. Obviously you won't. If he has AK he's not stacking off on a Q72 board. If the board is AQx sometimes you stack off to AA, if the board is QJT you sometimes stack off to AK etc.

[kitaristi0]

[ QUOTE ]
and youd be surprised how many times this is JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes matters worse for you because now if you still are playing only for set value you are folding the best hand often.

[the machine]

no no shoving

i said call and play for set value. he is repping AA/KK but that doesnt mean thats exactly what he has. i call and play poker. if he does have a ragged hand like JJ or AQ/AKo he wont call the push anyways unless he sucks real bad.

my point about the KK thing was not about getting it all in, im just saying sometimes people do some dumb things (likie actually fold KK preflop).

just call here

[Check_The_Nuts]

you do realize that if his range is wide and mine is tight, and I'm always check/folding QQ, then I'm probably better off just folding preflop and playing only AA/KK.

If he's 5betting me with JJ++/AQo+/AQs+ and he's only gunna stack off with AA/KK or a set and I continually check fold the flop when I don't set up I'm definitely losing money.

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and youd be surprised how many times this is JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes matters worse for you because now if you still are playing only for set value you are folding the best hand often.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is insane because we also call out of the blinds with a hand like 33 at times and when we dont flop a set we are still folding the best hand to a cbet.

i dont see how this isnt a +EV call

if he has AK and the flop is QJT then just learn how to hit a boat on 2 streets. to use that logic is just... meh i dont even know the word

[Check_The_Nuts]

machine - the problem is he could potential bet 5 bucks and if I check raise all in fold his AQ/AK/QQ/JJ even if he has top pair (in the case of AK) knowing he's probably toast (since it would be insane for me to bluff in that spot).

[the machine]

his range isnt that wide.

i dont usually fold a mediocre hand to a minraise out of the blinds. 85s + minraise + OOP = call. i give no respeck to a minraise and we actually have a hand here. he will stack off enough when we do hit. would you call here or even question it if it were 77 that you held. no, youd call with your nice pot odds and if you dont hit a set you can easily fold. i think your concern is that you feel you may be folding the best hand at times. if we give him a narrow range then its essentially any other PP that we are trying to flop a set with. and if anyone folds other PPs here to a minraise either i have alot to learn about hold them, or you need to PM me with you screen names and i will minraise your whole bankroll to my account

anyone disagree with me here besides kit?

[the machine]

its 25NL, why do you assume hes going to fold TPTK or an overpair.

[Chomp]

I am staggered by some of the advice here.

The guy is 40/6 and we're folding QQ pre? Sorry, I can't buy that. And why are we putting him so squarly on AA, KK, AK?? That is a VERY narrow range for this guy. Why not JJ? TT? Even 77-99?

My understanding is that of the 40% of times he puts money in, 6% of the time he's rasing. So he's seeing the flop almost half the time, and raising 6% of those - that's a very wide range of non-premium hands, even allowing for this being a nominal 4-bet.

Furthermore, I see no reason to believe his small flop bet has to be a K (or that he has the AA in the hole). I think a reasonable amount of the time this is JJ-.

Maybe these spots are the reason I suck, but I call flop and re-assess. If he bets again on turn, fine, fold. But lots of cards slow him down and we might well get a free s/d after flop.

(BTW, ok, looking at it again his minraise pf/weak flop bet look fishy, but honestly, I think the advice here is too scared. Just IMO, and please note my location).

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
its 25NL, why do you assume hes going to fold TPTK or an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah you got me, was going super-theoretical there.

Ok I like your line of reasoning more now. I think the call is probably +EV.

[kitaristi0]

His stats are 40/6 and he 4-bet cold. I think we can usually narrow his range down to QQ+, sometimes AK. As I noted above, if we widen his range but continue to play for set value that just makes things worse for us.

Chew on this:

Assuming we always stack him when we hit a set (which we won't, but whatever) I get this. Correct my math if I'm wrong.

We flop a set 12% of the time. 88% of the time we check/fold and lose $1.75. When we flop a set we win 91% of the time.

0.88 x (-$1.75) + 0.12 x 0.91 x $26.55 = $1.35

If we stack him every time we flop a set our EV is $1.35. Since we obviously won't stack him every single time we flop a set I like a fold preflop.

[Check_The_Nuts]

hah its cool chomp. Your thinking of how PFR and VPIP are defined are wrong. He sees the flop 40% of the time. He raises 6% of the time. The 6% PFR is included in the VPIP, so he limps or just calls 34% of the time, got me? So his standard play here is to just call, unless he goes LOL KK AA IS THE NUTS ALL IN. This is what we're worried about.

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
hah its cool chomp. Your thinking of how PFR and VPIP are defined are wrong. He sees the flop 40% of the time. He raises 6% of the time. The 6% PFR is included in the VPIP, so he limps or just calls 34% of the time, got me? So his standard play here is to just call, unless he goes LOL KK AA IS THE NUTS ALL IN. This is what we're worried about.

[/ QUOTE ]


No CTN, that's what I meant, even if I didn't express it very well. 6% of the time he puts money in the pot pf (which in itself is 40% of the time), he's rasing. Right?

But saying that this 6% of the time he raises it has to be AA or KK...I still think that is too narrow a range. 1% might be AA/KK. But 6%? That could be AQ, AK, AJs, ATs, JJ, QQ, TT IMO.

[Check_The_Nuts]

yeah your saying it right now. Of denotes multiply. Earlier you were saying something like 6% of the 40% or somethin weirdish like that.

and yeah, it could just be big cards, or a hand that looks good and he decides to near minraise. The machine discussed it a bit above...

[Pokey]

Soooooo many things worth discussing in this thread....It seems to me that everybody has something right and something wrong, and if you put your heads together, you have an absolutely top-flight analysis of this hand. But you're not coming together completely, so let me help.

Let's start with the math:

kitaristi0 was on the right track when he calculated the EV, but he made two small mistakes -- first, he forgot to subtract our losses the 9% of the time when we hit and still lose, and second (and more importantly) he simply looked at the EV from stacking our opponent. You saw a small win of $1.35 and said "meh, not worth it, since we won't always stack him." A MUCH better approach is to say "how much do I have to get into the pot on average when I hit my set in order to have an EV-neutral play?"

Sticking with the assumptions that it costs us an extra $1.75, we hit our set 12% of the time, and we win 91% of the time when we hit our set, and calling "x" the amount that our opponent commits to the pot on average when we hit our set, we get:

EV = 0.88(-1.75) + (0.12)*[(0.91)*(x + 3.25) - (0.09)*(x - 2.5)] = 0
x = $11.77

If villain will commit at least $11.77 more to the pot on average when we hit our set, we have a +EV play in calling preflop. I'd say that's EXTREMELY likely, and I think this is a call.

On to individual comments:

Check_The_Nuts: you are absolutely right in saying that the wider his preflop range, the more this leans towards a fold. However, the guy only raises 6% of his hands preflop, which looks something like "77+, AK, AQ" or "TT+, AK, AQ, KQ" or some such. However, that's villain's ENTIRE raising range; most people are far more eager to raise preflop as the first one in, or after a limper, than they are to FOUR-bet after a raise and reraise. I think your original range of "AA, KK, AK" sounds about right to me. So, you're behind on the flop, but you KNOW villain won't release his hand easily, so you should be able to squeeze more cash out of him postflop if you hit. DO NOT TRY BLUFFING THIS FLOP. Whatever villain has, it connected. Check/folding is absolutely your best play. You took your chance, you missed, you fold. Perfectly played.

kitaristi0: you are correct in saying that we will NOT stack villain every time, here. You're also absolutely on the money when you say that a wider range for villain makes your situation HARDER, not easier, especially if we plan to play a fit-or-fold strategy. You were right to try doing math here, but you did it incorrectly, and in a way that actually flip-flops the results. See my correction above. The dead money in the pot helps make this a call, but the critical factor is this: given how narrow our range of villain is, and given how bad a player he is, we can be pretty sure that we're going to take a ton of cash from him if we hit our hand. This is a critical difference between a 10/6 set-mining nit and a 40/6 idiot: even though they're both raising the same general hands, they're playing them differently postflop, and the 40/6 idiot is likely going to play them worse, paying more money when behind and collecting less money when ahead. Trust that.

the_machine: your intuition that we're playing for set value AND that doing so is +EV is completely correct. However, your range for villain doesn't work for me -- this isn't JJ or AQ often enough to worry about it. holdme nailed this one when he said "AA/KK/AK" and I think AK is something of a stretch here. The guy's got the goods, and you're playing for set value. Oh, and one more thing: we're never, ever, ever stealing this postflop. Either we hit and get a ton of cash or we miss and check/fold. Don't get cutesy with this hand -- we have virtually zero folding equity here. Now, that's not a bad thing -- heck, it's what makes the preflop call +EV -- but don't build a cushion into your calculations based on the times that villain has AK and you take it away from him postflop. There are no scare cards, there is no folding equity, and this hand will be played on a pure fit-or-fold level. Your "i call and play poker" line is off the mark, because there's no poker to be played -- either you hit your set or you get out of Dodge. There is no middle ground, here.

You made one other intriguing comment that hasn't gotten NEARLY enough discussion in this thread:

[ QUOTE ]

and im calling here even if i didnt have the odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Under other circumstances, this would be an absolutely BRILLIANT comment. This idea will serve you VERY well at the higher stakes (I'd say $100NL and up, though it might not even apply as low as $100NL). You see, there are times when you make an "image play." If the four-bettor had been an extremely aggressive and extremely strong player, there might be a need to play a hand like QQ to the bone, possibly even five-betting preflop and pushing any flop, even if you think your hand might be worst. Why? You want your opponent to remember that you're crazy-aggressive, and that he can't just four-bet at will and expect you to get out of the way. Three-betting and folding in the same round, ESPECIALLY to a small bet, makes you look incredibly weak-tight, and that makes good players start taking shots at you. You don't want people taking shots at you if you can avoid it, and playing back -- HARD -- will make people slow down. Even if they win this particular hand, they'll remember that you're not to be effed with when you three-bet, and that added maneuvering room can buy you many pots down the road.

In this situation, against this moron, such considerations don't apply. Calling this hand "for image purposes" is Fancy Play Syndrome; either it's a +EV call or you can fold it. Nobody is going to remember, so you won't get the "image bonuses" that would be necessary to make this play +EV.

There is one more non image-related reason why you might make a stupid call preflop that was -EV: it's called "tilt equity." If stacking an opponent with a dominated hand can cause him to tilt sideways and stack off another five or six times, the small -EV preflop play can more than pay for itself when it hits. In a sense, your implied odds are deeper than your opponent's stack if your play triggers this tilting cascade. Again, this issue doesn't apply in this situation, because your opponent is bad enough to stack off WITHOUT being tilted. That's the kind of play you make against a "table captain" type player -- someone who thinks he's brilliant and everybody else is stupid, someone who will then "realize you're an idiot" and start playing back at you with a stupid vengeance. He'll call down ultralight, he'll bluff hopelessly, and he'll pay you like a broken slot machine. Again -- that's not this guy, and this is not the situation where those ideas apply.

I'm not advocating making -EV calls as a regular play; I'm just saying there are a few 1-in-1000 situations where it can be +EV to make a -EV play in a particular hand. Don't bank on them, though.

Chomp: you're still not 100% of the way there with the PFR/VPIP relationship. The PFR tells you the fraction of ALL PREFLOP HANDS that the player raises; the VPIP tells you the fraction of ALL PREFLOP HANDS that the player pays to see a flop with. A VPIP/PFR of 20/20 means that the player sees 20% of his hands and raises 20% of his hands -- that means he's raising EVERY TIME HE'S IN THE HAND. The PFR is not 20% of the times he's in, it's 20% of the hands he's dealt. You're right that 6% is wider than AA/KK/AK, but remember: we're dealing with a preflop FOUR-BET after someone raised and someone else reraised. This guy isn't making that move 6% of the time, and calling this AA/KK/AK isn't going to be wrong often enough to be worth worrying about. Also, the idea that a $5 bet is weak-looking here is also off the mark: this guy is a fish, and he's STILL betting. It probably looks weak because he's scared that he won't get action. I'd say we're beaten in this situation, and it's time to fold. Remember: even if villain were all-in with this $5 bet, we'd have to have the best hand at least 25% of the time for calling to be best. So even if we include QQ/JJ in villain's range, we're STILL only best about 17% of the time. Add in the hammer of future betting (villain is NOT all-in, and we're still going to have to deal with turn and river betting) and we've got an EASY fold, even for a low price like $5.

In short, I think the preflop raise is thin-but-profitable and I think the flop is an EASY check-fold, even for a small bet. We took a shot at the big money, we missed, and we get out with most of our stack intact. Well played.

[SavageMiser]

Pokey, thread assassin.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Chomp]

Pokey, that is an incredible amount of effort you put in to help us all out.

Very many thanks.

[kitaristi0]

Nice post Pokey, and thanks for correcting my math. For some reason I seem to always forget the "- (0.09)*(x - 2.5)" part.

Looking at it again, it does look like a profitable call. Nonetheless, I do still think that's it a lot more marginal than most people would quickly assume by glancing at the hand.