50 NL FR - turn all-in bluff

[xGREGORx]

Villian is a crazy 52/19/3 over ~70 hands. I have been playing solid. Effective stacks are ~$50. Convincing bluff or spew on the turn?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 raises to $3</font>, CO folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($9.75, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 bets $6</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($21.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP3 bets $10</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $41</font>...

[kitaristi0]

I don't expect a 52/19 to ever fold anything so I don't bother bluffing them. Floating the flop 3-way is also questionable at best.

[Djeorge]

Hmm, you need him to fold &gt;2/3 of the time and basically given his stats I don't think that will be the case here and you could easily get called down by A6 or the like, let alone considering the possibility he actually has two pair, a set or a str8.

Also, I hate the float on the flop.

[ChipStorm]

I'm not calling preflop. We may be dominated right out of the gate, so I'm probably 90%+ fold, 10%- reraise.

As played, I give up on the flop. He's probably got the big pair and he's not going anywhere. Two problems with the bluff are:

1. The turn 5 allows you to rep having hung on with 4s or 5s, or an overpair. If I were villain holding my own overpair, I'm not believing you stayed with the 4s or 5s.

2. Villain may also read you for an overpair, but getting better than 2:1, as villain I'm willing to call to see whose overpair is better.

So I think your FE on the turn is very small. Add to that the chance that you may be drawing completely dead, and I definitely release.

[sippin_criss]

fold pf, fold flop, fold turn, other than that, nh!

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
fold pf, fold flop, fold turn, other than that, nh!

[/ QUOTE ]