Set of Jacks, push on the turn? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Newer Archives

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LOwrestling2001

12-09-2006, 03:35 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($28.40)
UTG ($29.10)
MP ($53.25)
CO ($7.55)
Hero ($28.05)
SB ($34.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.

Flop: ($4.35) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4.

Turn: ($12.35) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $22.05 (All-In), UTG folds.

Final Pot: $34.40

I was wondering if my push here on the turn was hasty because I was afraid if I value bet on the turn, villain might draw out and catch possible straight on the river. I just wonder if I shouldve tried to get more value out of this hand though? Villain is 29/7/0.40, but this is only over a 14 hand sample so I felt like it wasn't a very accurate number. He seemed avg. I was thinking, that by pushing, I played it safe, but if I bet the pot, which was $12 on the turn, then he'd have 2:1 pot odds to get a straight, and at best, 3:1 implied (assuming i'm all in on the river), that would've been the best line in terms of +EV right (to just bet the turn instead of push)? Criticism appreciated, thanks.

Unknown Soldier

12-09-2006, 03:39 PM

I think this push is terrible, you want him to take bad odds to draw to his straight, plus he might fold TP. Bet about $8 here.

LOwrestling2001

12-09-2006, 03:46 PM

kicking myself =( got drawn out so many times this week haha guess i got scared and wasn't thinking

HoldemPokerPlyr

12-09-2006, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this push is terrible, you want him to take bad odds to draw to his straight, plus he might fold TP. Bet about $8 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

$8 seems like a fair bet here.

-HoldemPokerPlyr

Unknown Soldier

12-09-2006, 03:49 PM

yeah i know how you feel, very tempting to want those donks to fold their draws, but you will be taking less of their money.

LOwrestling2001

12-09-2006, 03:52 PM

ok, say theoretically, if i bet 8-10 and he catches his straight, at that point, would call a push?

Unknown Soldier

12-09-2006, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ok, say theoretically, if i bet 8-10 and he catches his straight, at that point, would call a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

fold, he has a better hand /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

you mean if a T/Q comes on river right? Well read dependent. You wont be getting terrible odds. If villain is capable of bluffing then it's a close call. But readless I'm folding. It's way too reckless and not many opponents would do that.

Sir Winalot

12-09-2006, 04:03 PM

I'd bet 9 on the turn and shove river. Anything under 100 hands is pretty much inaccurate, I have my pahud stats showing after 50 hands.

LOwrestling2001

12-09-2006, 04:34 PM

oh ok, thanks guys hehe, my short time at 2p2 so far has helped me a lot! haha

Check_The_Nuts

12-09-2006, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet 9 on the turn and shove river. Anything under 100 hands is pretty much inaccurate, I have my pahud stats showing after 50 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow really? I use hand averages at just 6-10 hands (mind you the stats I use are just VPIP/PFR and I'm not taking any other stats seriously at all).

Push is frekin insane here. The guy probably has a weak ace, maybe a weak second pair. Don't shove him out of the hand (literally)....