25NL flush draw blind vs blind

[jimpo]

Did I play this bad? SB is 20/2.7/1.6 after 70 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($103.05)
Hero ($34.30)
UTG ($30.75)
UTG+1 ($25.70)
MP1 ($44.90)
MP2 ($24.65)
CO ($3.20)
Button ($14.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $1</font>, Hero calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $102.05</font>, Hero calls $26.30 (All-In).

Turn: ($137.35) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($137.35) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $137.35

[Sir Winalot]

Fold to the shove, you're not getting odds.

[RollTide77]

I like the way you played it but would have folded. He's got a high pair or TT and knows you're on a draw. You need a heart. 9 outs. You'll probably get the heart 2 out of 3 times but do you really want to risk 30 bucks on it every time? Of course he could be bluffing knowing that he's got your stack covered 3 fold but again...do you want to risk $30 bucks on it? At that point you really didn't have anything either and pairing your 8 doesn't help if he's got a T. So you need a heart or an A if he's bluffing so then you've got 12 outs which is still like 1 out of 4 left in the deck.

[illini43]

If SB is raising pf only 2.7% of the time, his range is very tight. His range is probably something like 99-AA, AQs+, AKo.

That being said, calling preflop is probably OK to try and hit a hand and get paid off.

On the flop, he is showing strength, so I don't think raising the flop is going to accomplish anything except get all his money in the pot.

After he pushes, you are getting ~ 1.42:1 odds to call. Against a range of 99-AA,AQs+,AKo you are a 43/57 dog.

I think you may be getting odds to call here, but it is very close.

Generally, I'm not a big fan of calling my stack off with the NFD against someone who raised pf who doesn't do it often.

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to the shove, you're not getting odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually there was $42.3 in the pot and my call was $26.30, he had QQ so I believe I had the odds to call. If he has TT I don't have the odds but, surprisingly, even AA is very close to correct odds.

[jimpo]

I don't really mind my final call that much, I thought it was close but could not know for certain at the moment it happened, and was pleasantly surprised that I had the odds when I checked afterwards. I am worrying more about the other parts of the hand:

- does anyone raise PF? It is blind vs blind after all? I come from limit and there I would certainly have raised
- nut flush draw on the flop: I would love to be the one going all in to have some fold equity. I guess there is no other way the flop can be played (except of course maybe folding to his all-in)? Calling is out of the question I believe? And I can't go all-in to his first raise?

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]

After he pushes, you are getting ~ 1.42:1 odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, how did you get that? Pot has $2 (flop) + $7 (my raise) + $7 (he calls my raise) + $26.30 (he puts me all in) = $42.3 and I call $26.3. 42.3:26.3 = 1.61:1, or do I count it bad somewhere?

[Bonesy]

I don't like the pf call. This guy raises tight and just because it's a blind battle, it shouldn't make much difference. If you hit an ace, you could be in real trouble so you are just playing for flush or two pair value mostly. Since you have somewhere between 9 and 12 outs, the all in call seems alright if your math was good. I didn't check it but it looks right.

[jimpo]

Yeah, the PF call was probably bad.

I though about the flop play a bit more. Since I will be priced in to call all-in after my raise to $7, shouldn't I have raised straight to all-in in the first place? It sounds very extreme to move all-in for $30 into $4 pot, but when you think about it logically, betting $7 is in no way a better option. At least that way we would have the fold equity and are the ones putting the opponent in a tough spot, instead of it being the other way around.

Either that or make the raise smaller, like to $5, so that we can fold if reraised. But what good raising $3 more to a $6 pot going to accomplish?

[dashman]

I think its a fold preflop, due to the pretty tight raising range. Eventhough, its only 70 hands, 20/2.7(raised ~4 hands) is pretty tight regardless, not to mention his low aggression factor, which will help you factor a fold later on in the hand as hes playing very strongly. If you call to try and hit a flush or trip 8's then you have to be willing to fold when you do not hit.

At this level I find that when these blind battles occur, my opponents almost always have a good hand. If you are just trying to defend your blind by calling, this is wrong, as a reraise preflop will also save you money against a strong hand as you can fold to a 3-bet/push.

Against AA you are a 63/37 dog
Against KK-JJ you are a 54/46 dog(providing one of the cards isnt a heart, in which case you are a 56/44 dog)
Against 1010 you are 75/25 dog.

As played, I would have called flop lead out, since villain has already expressed strength, if villain limps preflop however, then I would 3-bet. You call flop bet, see turn, fold if unimproved(hitting an 8 does not help much) because you will be facing probably 2/3 pot bet, which wont give you odds, as you will be ~75/25(when hitting an 8) dog against his range.

Overall, I fold after villains push, I'm not stacking off on a draw here.

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]

Since I will be priced in to call all-in after my raise to $7, shouldn't I have raised straight to all-in in the first place?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did some "Sklansky-type" analysis of the hand to calculate the EV of moving in in the flop. I made some assumptions:

- Villain has a range of 99-AA,AQs+,AKo
- I separated those hands into three groups that villain plays differently when I move in
- c1: set with TT, calls 100%
- c2: overpairs JJ-AA, calls 75% folds 25%
- c3: 99, AQs+, AKo, calls 10%, folds 90%

of course those are debatable...against c1 we are 25/75, c2 44/56, c3 46/54, assuming villain has a heart with c1 and c2. There are 3 ways villain can have TT, 21 combinations of overpairs, and 18 combinations of c3. EV for moving in is:

c1 = TT: .25 * +35.3 + .75 * -31.3 = -14.65
c2 = JJ-AA: .25 * 4 + .75 * (.44 * 35.3 + .56 * -31.3) = -0.497
c3 = 99, AQs, AKs, AKo: .9 * 4 + .1 * (.46 * 35.3 + .54 * -31.3) = +3.53

EV = (3/42) * -14.65 + (21/42) * -0.497 + (18/42) * 3.53 = + 0.22

So it has a whopping +0.22 positive EV! Basically a break even play that just increases variance. And any mistakes in the assumptions break this. One thing to note, however, is that the pot does not have to be much larger for the +EV grow to be significant.

I guess that I could also call the flop bet and hope to extract on average more than $4 from the villain when the turn is a heart. I am not sure if that can be achieved, it will be hard to get more money into to the pot when there is a three flush on the board. Well, I have the position, so maybe. It is not a huge +EV play either, though.

There just doesn't seem to be a good way to play this flop with this hand.