Big draw .02/.05NL - Come spew with me

[PotatoStew]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed)

CO ($16.13)
Button ($3.85)
SB ($9.95)
BB ($2.40)
UTG ($9.93)
Hero ($9.89)
MP1 ($9.95)
MP2 ($4.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.05, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $0.05, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks

Flop: ($0.20) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $0.30</font>, Hero calls $0.30, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $0.50</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $2.35 all in</font>, Hero ???

I don't have any individual reads at this point. The table has been pretty average, with small to medium sized pots, nothing huge or super-aggressive.

What should I do here? I have a very good draw - around 14 outs I think - and a lot of pot equity. Given the action, I'm fairly certain that MP2 will be calling the all-in raise which would give me a bit over 2:1, if I'm figuring that correctly. I'm inclined to call. Massive spew, or good choice?

I've gotten several big draws lately that are faced with big bets, and I never feel comfortable with any decision.

[Archon_Wing]

I'd fold preflop, since suited connectors are the suck OOP, especially UTG. You should really raise that flop bet though. As played, push on top of BB's push.

[Esection]

insta-push. there was a thread in SSNL about almost the very same hand:

i cant find it, but the point of it basically was in the situation of AJ (no diamonds) vs. 78dd on a 9d Td J(no diamond) board, the 78dd is ahead 55/45% to win.

so put your money in all day.

[thac]

I beat villains chips into the pot. I raise BB's bet up to about $1 and try to get it allin on flop.

[illini43]

Preflop call is OK if the table has been passive preflop. A raise pf is also acceptable, but generally this is better from LP.

You are ahead of basically everything except AdJd, KdQd, and JJ, TT, 66.

Against TT and 66 you are still getting odds to call (via pushing) if you are sure MP2 comes along.

So, I push, you are ahead a lot of the time here.

[PotatoStew]

[ QUOTE ]
you are still getting odds to call (via pushing) if you are sure MP2 comes along.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that leads to another question - why isn't it better to simply call, since that would make it more likely that MP2 comes along? In other words, if I push, and run the risk of MP2 folding, aren't I working against myself here? If someone could explain the logic and or math of pushing vs. calling, I would appreciate it.

[PotatoStew]

Or is Esections comment above about the AJ vs 78 percentages pretty much the explanation? However, that doesn't take into account other potential hands, as mentioned in illini43's post. Hm.

[RollTide77]

Me...I fold. But if you're feeling lucky, you have his stack covered so go for it. Just remember...you have 12 outs assuming no one else can make a flush or straight and the two villains probably have a few of your outs in their hand. Plus, you don't necessarily hold the nuts even if it hits. If a 9 hits you lose to a KQo. If a diamond hits you lose to a AKs, KQs, QJs. I don't like to make the call unless I know I'm gonna have the nuts when it hits.

[Edit] I take it back. You've still got one more guy to play with if you make the call. I fold regardless. Don't go all in with two players unless you know you're gonna have the nuts.