NL50: KK raised all in on turn.

[jaffa]

No reads sorry, or stats because PT causes the site to crash each time it collects new hands. But he's tight, perhaps 20/10?

Seat 4 is the button

Seat 1: UTG ($99.35)
Seat 2: MP ($29.80)
Seat 3: C/O ($59.40)
Seat 4: BUTTON ($59.50)
Seat 5: SB ($150.15)
Seat 6: HERO ($84.34)
SB posts small blind [$0.25]
HERO posts big blind [$0.50]

Dealt to HERO [ K /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ]

UTG calls [$0.50]
MP folds
C/O calls [$0.50]
BUTTON folds
SB folds
HERO raises [$2.50]
UTG folds
C/O calls [$2.50]

7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif


Pot is $6.75
HERO bets [$5.00]
C/O calls [$5.00]

3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Pot is $16.75
HERO bets [$10.00]
C/O is all-In [$51.40]
HERO ?

[Crimsonjade]

I put him on AA/88/77. I lean towards the set because he did not raise AA, but maybe that is his style. Your PFR tells him you have a premium hand and he feels confident enough to smooth call the flop because he has you beat.

I am new though, this is post is more for my benefit to see how close I am.

[IceMuncher]

I fold. You've represented an overpair the whole way, I don't think he's pushing here with a hand you beat.

[nyc999]

I think you have to let this one go. It's possible villain has a lower overpair, but if he's truly around a 20/10, it should eliminate JJ/QQ and probably TT. It's either a set, the occasional 78s or an enormous bluff, and you've shown strength throughout the hand OOP - this all makes it a fold IMO.

[RollTide77]

I fold too. I definitely wouldn't have called a big pf raise with a pocket pair of mid cards so he must have AA and slow played the flop. Wierd hand.

[banana182]

Instafold. I'd put him on a pocket pair which hit a set. I can't see you as anything but behind.

[IceMuncher]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold too. I definitely wouldn't have called a big pf raise with a pocket pair of mid cards so he must have AA and slow played the flop. Wierd hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

A middle pocket pair makes perfect sense here. He just limped in CO (he'd probably raise TT, JJ or QQ pf, so we can discount those a bit), then called a 5x raise. That's completely standard for set mining with a low to middle PP, and some donks play AA that way as well. The more I think about it, the quicker I fold here.

[King Car]

I put KK in the muck here.

The pre-flop action looks like a middle pp. Further, the flat call on the flop and a/i raise on the turn looks lke a set.

I don't think this a hand we are ahead of enough to warrant a call here.

[jaffa]

Cheers all, looking back on it it's so obvious now.

[Gone Forever]

I know everybody is telling you to fold here. I'm not 100% on what I would do in this situation. I'd say it's pretty close to flipping a coin. Here's why:

I don't think this guy has any pocket pair from AA-77. He's the cutoff. With his premiums pairs AA-JJ, why would he slow play in this spot? If he was in early or even middle position, limping and waiting for somebody to raise so you can hit them with a reraise is a viable option, but not at the cutoff. There's too great of a chance that nobody will raise. I see him raising here with AA-JJ for value. If somebody thinks he's stealing, maybe they'll reraise and he can nail them then. Why would he not reraise your raise if he was slow playing? Everything he could have wanted to happen, happened. He got a raise, and you forced out the other person.

I also see him raising with 1010-66 hoping to snatch the blinds but also carrying hand strength if called. If he gets reraised huge these hands could be easy folds for him.

So what hands is he likely to hold? If he does have a pocket pair it's more likely 66-22. What else would a late position limper have that he would also call an OOP raise with?

This will all depend on what our villian thinks of you, your style, and what you're trying to accomplish in this hand. Is it possible he thinks you're on the steal because nobody else raised? Have you raised out of the blinds with any frequency? Have you been aggressive and raising preflop a lot while he was at the table? If he thinks you're stealing or overly aggressive pre-flop, this will definately widen his range of calling hands.

I'll ballpark his calling range here and say that he could call your OOP raise with anything from 66-22 & suited J10-65. If he thinks you're aggressive or stealing, also throw in ANY suited Ace and ANY suited King with a sprinkling of gapped suited connectors.

Notice that I've never mentioned the hands AK-QJ at all? With such good positioning it would be odd for him not to raise preflop. He may be the type of guy that makes bonehead plays like this, but, lets face it, these hands in this position are going to get raised the majority of the time.

Anyway, so the flop is 7d 8h 2s.

Is it possible villian has a hand like 89 or 67 or A8-K8? Like I said, it depends. I think there is a very good argument for suited 78. I think there COULD be a good argument that he only has a single pair too.

Another question: Do we really put him on trips here? If he had 77 or 88, I think the odds would say he would have raised them preflop. I wouldn't say they're impossible, but, I would say they are not likely. 33? Okay. Why would he call your flop bet? The only way he's calling the flop with 33 is if he thinks you were stealing and are continuation betting the flop. I would say this hand is very unlikely as well. 22? Out of all of the possible sets he could have, I would say that this would be the most likely.

Okay, so let's say he does have a set of deuces.... You've bet 3 consecutive times. He has to know that this board is not likely to have helped your hand. Knowing this, why would he make such a large raise right now? Why would he not smooth call one more time to see if you'll bet again on the river. If you don't bet the river, he still has the last word and can then value bet his set and hope for you to call.

This bet seems to be carrying more weight towards a defensive action than it does an offensive action. Even if he held 78, why would he want you to run away? Why wouldn't he want one more bet in there before pulling the trigger?

I'm leaning towards top pair and he just wants you to go away. I'm not saying he can't have you killed right now. Not at all. He very well can have you absolutely destroyed. It just seems odd that if he, in fact, does have you beat that he would choose to play his hand in this way. People do strange things sometimes.

I'm interested in hearing what you actually did in this spot and if you called, what did our villian hold?

I hope I was able to help a little.

G O N E F O R E V E R

[Crimsonjade]

Look at it from the villains POV:
He smooth calls the flop because it is a rainbow and at best the hero is betting out with QJ (eliminate 910 because of the pfr by the hero). He shoves on the turn because a) its a real tough call for the hero to make if he is holding a premium hand b) he is taking the pot down instead of letting the hero see the river card.

[RollTide77]

[ QUOTE ]
A middle pocket pair makes perfect sense here. He just limped in CO (he'd probably raise TT, JJ or QQ pf, so we can discount those a bit), then called a 5x raise. That's completely standard for set mining with a low to middle PP, and some donks play AA that way as well. The more I think about it, the quicker I fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you call a 5-bet PF with pocket 7s you're gonna be out alot of money over the long haul. I hope I'm playing you.

[nyc999]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A middle pocket pair makes perfect sense here. He just limped in CO (he'd probably raise TT, JJ or QQ pf, so we can discount those a bit), then called a 5x raise. That's completely standard for set mining with a low to middle PP, and some donks play AA that way as well. The more I think about it, the quicker I fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you call a 5-bet PF with pocket 7s you're gonna be out alot of money over the long haul. I hope I'm playing you.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain had 77, he should be calling that pf raise every day and twice on Sunday. The call represented less than 5% of his stack against an opponent with a 160 BB's. This is one of the most profitable (and fundamental) plays in uNL.

[RAHZero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A middle pocket pair makes perfect sense here. He just limped in CO (he'd probably raise TT, JJ or QQ pf, so we can discount those a bit), then called a 5x raise. That's completely standard for set mining with a low to middle PP, and some donks play AA that way as well. The more I think about it, the quicker I fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you call a 5-bet PF with pocket 7s you're gonna be out alot of money over the long haul. I hope I'm playing you.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain had 77, he should be calling that pf raise every day and twice on Sunday. The call represented less than 5% of his stack against an opponent with a 160 BB's. This is one of the most profitable (and fundamental) plays in uNL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, WTF??? You should never, EVER be folding any PP for a single raise PF unless you don't have implied odds to hit a set (either because the raise is huge or the raiser is short-stacked). Folding a mid-pocket pair here is terrible. Look at the hand assuming CO flopped a set. He made $15 post-flop on his PF investment of $2 after the raise, and is very well stacking most donks who have KK there. If you're regularly folding PP to preflop raises, you need to be rethinking your game.

[inspir3d]

check the turn, call down the hand.