Small Changes to My 50K Challenge

[David Sklansky]

1. A simple polygraph is not sufficient in the case of people who are likely to be totally lying.

2. The challenger must be at least 25 years old.

3. The challenger must be 95% sure that a belief in Jesus's divinity is SUFFICIENT as well as NECESSARY to get to heaven.

Since no one has yet accepted my offer I have a right to amend it.

#1 is obvious.

#2 is because the point of my bet disappears if the youngster who beats me comes to his senses a few years later. Which he almost certainly would.

#3 should have been this way from the beginning. Those Christians who think that belief is merely a prerequisite for heaven but not a automatic ticket for scoundrels, even if they are genuinely contrite on their death bed, are not really my target. I'm told that eliminates Mormons.

I have several reasons for targeting this one category of Christians. I believe their beliefs are offensive, despicable, and dangerous. And of course I also believe they are stupid. Stupider than the beliefs of Jews, Catholics and some Protestants. One reason is the simple fact that they believe more specifics that are farfetched. The less logical reason is that it just seems so impossible that God would be that way. (Perhaps thats my Jewish heritage talking rather than my agnosticsm.) Lastly is the psychological read that I put on most of these people. The need to beleive that belief is the far and away most important thing to God, rather than behavior, is something that tends to attracts losers. Ex drug addicts, criminals, and other miscreants. No way the smartest of these people have a shot against me.

[goodsamaritan]

David, I think one big problem with your challenge is that anyone who believes # 3 probably also believes that betting is wrong.

Also, as some people pointed out in the other thread, I don't think the difficulty level of the SAT or GRE math section is high enough to stump religious wackos. The challenge would essentially come down to who could answer the questions faster. If you won, it would just prove that you are faster than them, not that your logic and reasoning skills are better, which is what I think you're trying to prove.

[goofball]

A better test my be 15 or 20 LSAT logic games.

[David Sklansky]

"Also, as some people pointed out in the other thread, I don't think the difficulty level of the SAT or GRE math section is high enough to stump religious wackos"

I believe strongly that you are wrong. That's the point of this challenge.

[felson]

David,

Please estimate the probability of your scoring perfectly on the math SAT or GRE under the given conditions. If you don't wish to answer, please explain why.

[David Sklansky]

Felson,

I won't answer that because if I did I really do have almost no win.

Meanwhile surely you couldn't pass that polygraph could you? And if you have someone else in mind who would give me I fight, I'm thinking he can't either.

[goodsamaritan]

Okay, for the sake of argument, lets say there are 50 questions amd both you and Joe Bible take the test in half the time normally allowed. You do 45 questions and get all of them right. Joe Bible does 42 questions and gets all of them right. Or you barely ace it, but he only gets 47 cause he ran out of time. Would either of those results really prove anything?

[cassette]

My favourite thread in a while. Good work, Sklansky.

[felson]

[ QUOTE ]
"Also, as some people pointed out in the other thread, I don't think the difficulty level of the SAT or GRE math section is high enough to stump religious wackos"

I believe strongly that you are wrong. That's the point of this challenge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that so? Then you shouldn't mind conceding in the case of a perfect-perfect tie.

[felson]

[ QUOTE ]
Felson,

I won't answer that because if I did I really do have almost no win.

Meanwhile surely you couldn't pass that polygraph could you? And if you have someone else in mind who would give me I fight, I'm thinking he can't either.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I couldn't pass that polygraph. I don't know how non-Christians will be judged.

I also think that people who could pass your polygraph represent a very small fraction of American Protestants.

[SNOWBALL]

[ QUOTE ]
3. The challenger must be 95% sure that a belief in Jesus's divinity is SUFFICIENT as well as NECESSARY to get to heaven.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure almost no one thinks that believing in the divinity of jesus is sufficient to go to heaven. For example, if you sin actively, and don't seek to mend your ways, and you have committed the unforgivable sin, no one thinks you are going to heaven just because you believe in the divinity of Jesus.

[JayTee]

[ QUOTE ]


I also think that people who could pass your polygraph represent a very small fraction of American Protestants.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this kind of the whole idea behind the bet?

[KUJustin]

David, though I was certainly not going to take you up anyway, you really gave me some knock out punches with the revision.

#2 - I've got 13 months to go on the age requirement.
#3 - [ QUOTE ]
You believe that there is one God. Good! Even the demons believe that—and shudder. James 2:19 (http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?book_id=66&chapter=2&version=31)

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not pass #3. Having true faith in Jesus' sacrifice and accepting his payment is sufficient. Believing in his divinity is a step short of that. My first instinct upon reading was also to think that faith must be accompanied by repentance and by deeds, but this is because faith can not help but produce those, not necessarily because they are required. So, the faith alone is sufficient but it's irrelevant because there's no such thing as faith alone.

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I also think that people who could pass your polygraph represent a very small fraction of American Protestants.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this kind of the whole idea behind the bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. David's point is explained will in his response to my post in the original $50,000 challenge thread.

[MelchyBeau]

David,

I think I may have a challenger for you. I'll have to convince him to do this. He is going to go to UIUC for grad school in Math at age 20, he is a true believer, and he scored something like the top 10% on the Math GRE.

[samsonite2100]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, for the sake of argument, lets say there are 50 questions amd both you and Joe Bible take the test in half the time normally allowed. You do 45 questions and get all of them right. Joe Bible does 42 questions and gets all of them right. Or you barely ace it, but he only gets 47 cause he ran out of time. Would either of those results really prove anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

It would prove that Sklansky is somewhat smarter than the Christian who takes his challenge, which is obviously the point of this whole thing.

[keith123]

[ QUOTE ]
David,

I think I may have a challenger for you. I'll have to convince him to do this. He is going to go to UIUC for grad school in Math at age 20, he is a true believer, and he scored something like the top 10% on the Math GRE.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you are pretty sure sklansky would not score in the top 10 percent?

[MelchyBeau]

On the subject specific exam? Yes I am quite sure.

EDIT: This is not saying he is stupid by any means. I don't think Mr. Sklansky has the background knowledge of Abstract algebra, number theory, etc...

You can look at what it covers here and see an old exam here
LINK (http://www.ets.org/portal/site/ets/menuitem.1488512ecfd5b8849a77b13bc3921509/?vgnextoid=e5a52d3631df4010VgnVCM10000022f95190RCR D&vgnextchannel=6ef946f1674f4010VgnVCM10000022f951 90RCRD)

Sklansky might want to add in the first acturarial test in though, it covers only probability, which I would assume is his strong suit in Math.

[illusionS]

[ QUOTE ]
On the subject specific exam? Yes I am quite sure.

EDIT: This is not saying he is stupid by any means. I don't think Mr. Sklansky has the background knowledge of Abstract algebra, number theory, etc...



[/ QUOTE ]

Good thinking.

[Shadowrun]

[ QUOTE ]
1. A simple polygraph is not sufficient in the case of people who are likely to be totally lying.

2. The challenger must be at least 25 years old.

3. The challenger must be 95% sure that a belief in Jesus's divinity is SUFFICIENT as well as NECESSARY to get to heaven.

Since no one has yet accepted my offer I have a right to amend it.

#1 is obvious.

#2 is because the point of my bet disappears if the youngster who beats me comes to his senses a few years later. Which he almost certainly would.

#3 should have been this way from the beginning. Those Christians who think that belief is merely a prerequisite for heaven but not a automatic ticket for scoundrels, even if they are genuinely contrite on their death bed, are not really my target. I'm told that eliminates Mormons.

I have several reasons for targeting this one category of Christians. I believe their beliefs are offensive, despicable, and dangerous. And of course I also believe they are stupid. Stupider than the beliefs of Jews, Catholics and some Protestants. One reason is the simple fact that they believe more specifics that are farfetched. The less logical reason is that it just seems so impossible that God would be that way. (Perhaps thats my Jewish heritage talking rather than my agnosticsm.) Lastly is the psychological read that I put on most of these people. The need to beleive that belief is the far and away most important thing to God, rather than behavior, is something that tends to attracts losers. Ex drug addicts, criminals, and other miscreants. No way the smartest of these people have a shot against me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Logic and reasoning huh?

[felson]

Melch, David is not referring to the subject-specific exam.

[felson]

My thoughts on the challenge:

1. The GRE General Test is now a computer-based, interactive exam. Enforcing the time limit is impractical for that test.

2. For the top .1%, the math SAT and GRE are easy. I estimate that David is 90%+ to score perfectly, even with half the time. Even for someone much smarter than David, the edge will be small as the majority of results will be pushes. Factor in travel and lodging costs, escrow and testing fees, etc., and it's hard to see why anyone would accept this challenge.

Forget the polygraph for a moment. If a more difficult test were procured, there are individuals who I would stake against David. Using the SAT & GRE, I wouldn't bother.

I suspect that David knows this, which is why he can safely offer the challenge. Against anyone, he is less than 10% to lose.

David once offered the same testing challenge (without polygraph) to all 2+2 posters. El Diablo was interested, but declined when David refused to pay off on ties.

3. David's revised polygraph is very restrictive. At most, I estimate that 3 million Americans could pass that test. There is no one I know well who could.

[David Sklansky]

"2. For the top .1%, the math SAT and GRE are easy. I estimate that David is 90%+ to score perfectly, even with half the time. Even for someone much smarter than David, the edge will be small as the majority of results will be pushes. Factor in travel and lodging costs, escrow and testing fees, etc., and it's hard to see why anyone would accept this challenge"

To prove me wrong about my opinion of their stupidity. But I'll sweeten the pot and pay $2000 if we push.

Also I want to make it clear that the only reason I added the third clause to the polygraph was because philosophically ,those are the ones I want to "expose". BluffThis asked why I didn't change the criteria to those who believe the Earth is 6000 years old. It's because while they are even dumber, I have no animosity toward them. And I have no animosity toward Christians who believe that good works is a second requirement for heaven. But that doesn't mean I had any chance of losing if I stuck with my first two criteria.

[FortunaMaximus]

He who needs to adapt the battleground to his own satisfaction is aware of his weak spots and adjusts the criteria to balance the field.

For some, no amount will ever matter when you can leverage the games of William.

You have to be absolutely bored out of your [censored] mind these days.

[madnak]

[ QUOTE ]
To prove me wrong about my opinion of their stupidity. But I'll sweeten the pot and pay $2000 if we push.

[/ QUOTE ]

David, I think you just went from +++EV to ---EV.

[peritonlogon]

[ QUOTE ]

3. The challenger must be 95% sure that a belief in Jesus's divinity is SUFFICIENT as well as NECESSARY to get to heaven.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is just semantics, but, I would advise adding "no less than" between "be" and "95%", since a person with "true faith" or whatever could not actually pass the poly since he would consider it a lie to say he was 95% sure (as opposed to 100%).

[mak15]

DS,

Do you expect to get any wrong on the SAT? I'd have to take the test now to be sure how constrictive the time will be, but I know when Ipracticed and took the test back in high school I would finish the 30 minute sections in about 20 and anything wrong would be due to a laughable mistake. Actually, my little sister is in the process of SAT studying so maybe I will borrow a book from her and try this out when I go home for the holidays.

My point is, taking an SAT does not prove how smart you are since all of the questions are trivially easy and the time constraint will just put a premium on being fast. I agree that doing the SAT fast has something to do with brain power, but certainly it's not as good as a true IQ exam, possibly edited to only inlcude questions on the areas you want to test.

Also, I just want to add that I very much agree with your feelings that are behind this proposition.

[Greeksquared]

David,

It seems that you are more interested in finding out if in general that these people (Jesus <-> Heaven) described in the OP as a whole will have significantly less math GRE apptitude than what we would expect from random assignment of intelligence. I just think there is a better way of going about this than a challenge.

Your challenge just by pure chance might not happen because of limited exposure. You estimated yourself that we might expect from randomness that 1 in 10000 should be fit for your challenge. Why not do some real research and get 30 or more people from both sides to take the test and interview them afterwards and then do some simple significance tests.

I think this way will give you more of what you are looking for. I also think that even if there were someone with the intellect and belief suitable for the challenge that they would probably be too humble to even show you up as this is precisely what Jesus teaches.