Fake Math Question

[vhawk01]

Ok, there is probably no way to determine this, so lets just treat this as a fun little game of guesstimation. And it will be fun to see who sucks at scope.

How many dollars change hand per day/year in online poker based on technological mistakes? For the purposes of the question, count misclicks as mistakes, and also computers freezing and timing out, crashing, etc, basically anything that would be unlikely to happen live counts as a technological error.

This question always comes to mind when I read a HH where someone called with 52o on an AAQQ3 board, because that HAS to be a misclick of some sort.

[MaxWeiss]

He's beating 42, 43 and three two, and tying 54 and 53. It was probably an excellent online read by a soon-to-be pro.

As for the OP, I'm sure there actually is a good way to estimate. Survey the online players, get a decent sample size, define what counts as a mistake, get some data form the software companies about their inside malfunctions, guesstimate any bias or lies, and extrapolate a general area. It'd probably be pretty close to the actual number.

[Eagles]

People can misread their hands in live poker which is sort of like a misclick.

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
He's beating 42, 43 and three two, and tying 54 and 53. It was probably an excellent online read by a soon-to-be pro.

As for the OP, I'm sure there actually is a good way to estimate. Survey the online players, get a decent sample size, define what counts as a mistake, get some data form the software companies about their inside malfunctions, guesstimate any bias or lies, and extrapolate a general area. It'd probably be pretty close to the actual number.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, so any guess?

[tw0please]

A guess? Sure, 2 dollars. Where is idle speculation going to get this discussion? Get some data like previously suggested.

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
A guess? Sure, 2 dollars. Where is idle speculation going to get this discussion? Get some data like previously suggested.

[/ QUOTE ]
Did you even read the OP?

[Magic_Man]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's beating 42, 43 and three two, and tying 54 and 53. It was probably an excellent online read by a soon-to-be pro.

As for the OP, I'm sure there actually is a good way to estimate. Survey the online players, get a decent sample size, define what counts as a mistake, get some data form the software companies about their inside malfunctions, guesstimate any bias or lies, and extrapolate a general area. It'd probably be pretty close to the actual number.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, so any guess?

[/ QUOTE ]

I love Fermi questions, so I'll bite. I assume that if I misclick on Monday and win $1 extra, then misclick Tuesday and lose $1 extra, you mean that $2 has "changed hands due to technological errors."

All numbers are extremely rough, quick guesses, but that's the point of Fermi questions anyway. Also, I'm going to just start with misclicks, and handle freeze-ups and other errors later.

Avg number of misclicks per avg player: 1 per 50,000 hands.

Avg "money change" due to a misclick: 1 BB.

Avg BB size: $5 (?? I started to average the games from Stars, but decided I had better things to do).

I believe Party gets like 2000 hands per minute-ish, right? For fun, let's say that 10,000 hands per minute are being played on "all the major sites," with an average of 7 players per hand.

Every 5 minutes, 7 misclicks occur, so $35 per 5 minutes = $420 per hour.

Something on the order of $100-$1000 dollars/hr seems somewhat reasonable. Anyone think that the order of magnitude is way off?

~MagicMan

[vhawk01]

Thank you! That was a good post in what I hoped would be a whimsical thread. Yeah, I included the "money changing hands" thing because otherwise you could make the argument that most of it evens out.

[MaxWeiss]

I think you give people too much credit for how often they don't misclick. I would easily say it's at least a quarter of your 1 in 50K hands, if not much less than that. How often to drunk people play or something else---I would say on average there is one misclick in 5K-10K hands, not 50K, which would put your average up to about $5K per hour changing hands based on misclicks.