AKs, +EV to gambooooool in this spot?

[Roadstar]

Reads - Villain is a little LAG 30/18/5 or so.

I think preflop is standard? or bigger reraise?

In terms of hands, he prob doesn't have AA or KK preflop since he just called (remember hes already LAG so he def 4 bet those)

The flop insta push means hes scared shitless over the flop I think. Can I call here to gambool? (+EV?) I'm 50/50 against QQ, (edit) slight dog against AJs, pairs under JJ, 70/30 vs sets.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($57.85)
Button ($69.14)
SB ($83.20)
Hero ($160.16)
UTG ($15.30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7.49</font>, UTG folds, MP folds, Button calls $5.99.

Flop: ($17.23) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, Button calls $69.14 (All-In), Hero ?!?!?!

Almost $100 in pot, $60 to call.

[gimmetheloot]

I like a c/r AI on the flop.

[Roadstar]

Ignoring the fact that he pushed, why are we crai on the flop after a good 3 bet pre?

So questions remain:

1) as played, call or fold?

2) if we plan to crai on flop, call or fold if villain beats us to the punch and pushes first?

Thanks


[ QUOTE ]
I like a c/r AI on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[kaz2107]

i call. u have the nut draw and i bet at least one set of overs. u r getting decent odds.

[Check_The_Nuts]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.015 secs 1,386,000 games/sec

Board: Jc 9c 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.1289 % 38.13% 00.00% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 61.8711 % 61.87% 00.00% { JJ+, 99, 44 }

If he does this with KJ/AK unimproved, or TT or somethin, then its a call. As it stands now its a (very marginal) fold. 60/140=42.8% and you only win 38% with the above range. Did I do that right?

wow somewhat surprising

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

29,700 games 0.016 secs 1,856,250 games/sec

Board: Jc 9c 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.8418 % 39.84% 00.00% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 60.1582 % 60.16% 00.00% { JJ+, 99, 44, AJs, AJo }

[Imrahil]

I would have bet closer to the pot on the flop and the call would be a bit easier.

[Roadstar]

Thats a good point, seems like my bet size got me into this quandry. But is it better we bet smaller to be able to fold to a large raise or bet bigger to commit ourselves.

Check the nuts - Your hand range with JJ+ is probably slightly off, he almost never has AA or KK here. But then again we should put in something like TT so the equity is about the same.

[Imrahil]

I'm always happy to get my money in in this spot so I just bet the pot and shove over a raise.

[Roadstar]

I spike a K on the river (no more clubs)

Villain shows 77, MHIG and I proceed to be berated for the next 10 mins /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Jigsaws]

vnh. I would always make this call.