QJ turns a straight against uber calling station

[Thomas Arnold]

Villain is an 84/2 LPP calling station, pretty much plays any two cards and will call down with anything.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($8.60)
UTG+1 ($15.15)
MP1 ($9.05)
MP2 ($13.05)
MP3 ($14.35)
Hero ($15.35)
Button ($9.60)
SB ($9.80)
BB ($1.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $0.45, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $0.40.

<font color="blue">I normally don't raise this here, but I wanted to isolate the limper, as he pretty much gives away money. </font>

Flop: ($1.60) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

<font color="blue">Free card, take it. </font>

Turn: ($1.60) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $0.2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, SB folds, MP2 calls $0.80.

<font color="blue">The weak bet from MP2 was a little suprising, but like I said he can pretty much have anything, and I wanted to raise the turn for value and knock out the SB.</font>

River: ($3.60) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $2.1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero???</font>

<font color="blue">The stop and go really threw me off, and the bet amount almost seemed like a value bet to me. This is way outside his normal behavior, but I still have a strong hand, is it better to raise here or just call? </font>

[Splossy]

I appears that he has a jack and bet the turn when he made 4 to a straight and then bet it when it completed on the river. You have a higher straight so raise.

What do you think he has? Are you worried he has a boat or something?

[Waingro]

Pf good.
Flop good.
Raise turn more. $2 would be a good amount.
Push river.

[siwicki]

i think you push river, this guy is bad

[Ludanto]

[ QUOTE ]
...Raise turn more. $2 would be a good amount....

[/ QUOTE ]

How does the calculation for those $2 look like? (I know that there are no totally clear numbers but I'd like to know the factors and their weight that you are using) What is the reason why $2 is better than $1 here?

[Thomas Arnold]

[ QUOTE ]
I appears that he has a jack and bet the turn when he made 4 to a straight and then bet it when it completed on the river. You have a higher straight so raise.

What do you think he has? Are you worried he has a boat or something?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this advice is assuming that the villain will play the hand the way you would play it. A lot of people will aggressively bet their draws, but loose passive calling station types typically don't get aggressive unless they have a really strong hand, the nuts or close to it. I need to read the section in Psychology of Poker again, but that's the advice that I remember.

Anyway, assuming he has a pretty wide range, I think we still have enough of an equity edge to raise him. I did, and he showed T9 for the boat. I can deal with the beat, but as I reviewed the hand and thought about it more, I was wondering if there was more information out there to help my river decision to just call or raise.