(xp) It's either a pair or a draw OOP...

[Grunch]

It's a cross post. Maybe my micros bros will find this interesting...

Haven't posted a hand in about forever...

Opponent seems loose. That's all I know so far, he just sat down. My image is probably a loser image, I'm running bad.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $89
UTG+1: $107.90
CO: $61.30
Button: $98.20
SB: $98.10
BB: $102.85

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($9.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $9.5</font>, Button calls.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/club.gif ($28.5, 2 players)
Hero ... ?

[Check_The_Nuts]

I don't think you have fold equity. I think this depends a lot on how often the guy will bluff the turn when you check.

I think its easiest to bet here, probably 5 dollars, and hope he folds. I'm not too wild about the pot bet on the flop. Why did you do that with a loose image? Check/raise seems better....

IMO, you should check raise all in here with a tight/good image.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its easiest to bet here, probably 5 dollars, and hope he folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

$5 in to a $28 pot? Recomsider that...

As for why I led the flop, I did it for two reasons. One I have a pair + gutshot, quite possibly the best hand at the moment. But more importantly, I'm OOP.

[Check_The_Nuts]

He may try to float a lot here, that's all. Since its a low flop, he'll usually have lots of backup outs, and your hand isn't normally very strong.

When I said 5, I meant 14, I was thinking half pot. Mostly because I don't think the FE goes up much with the bigger bets (may be a reflection of my limit more than anything tho). I also think you'll look too much like a bluff betting large on a scare card.

edited to add, I wuoldn't normally raise 65s in your said case UTG. I think this hand is best raise preflop when your image is tight (your playing it more as a bluff, since 6 high is kinda crappy heads up). Maybe if the table is extremely loose and your likely to get like 3-4 callers.

[matrix]

Double barrell.

preflop standard.

flop semi standard - tho why are we betting full pot? - (or are all our CB's ~full pot?) thats a very drawless board - we have the only draw thats there pretty much so we're not worried about that one (OESD)- and there are almost no others.

I'd mostly 2/3 pot this turn and hope he's scared of that big bad Ace and folds. He'll fold most draws he might well fold TT/JJ, if he raises we can dump the hand.

We have plenty of outs if we get called - tho if we get called and miss we are probably gonna be c/f river. most often if he calls/raises the turn bet he HAS the Ace or has a hand that's not scared of it.

checking the turn sucks as we can get raised off what is likely the best hand by a floater - unless we put him on a float and check raise him tho I don't like checkraising him as we have precious little fold equity (that line is called stack-a-donk for a reason)

If he checks the turn through and we miss the river bet/folding to set a cheap SD price seems like the right play.

[derosnec]

why did u pot the flop?

better hands are folding? If he is on a draw (overs, straight, etc), you dont need to pot it because a) the draws probably dont have alot of outs (no combos here, maybe an OESD) and b) alot of turn cards are gonna suck for you and you are going to have c/f alot.

[munkey]

I disagree preflop non-standard - PFR 54 SC UTG leads us to this turn woe of what to do when playing a SC draw OOP. Didn't your write a PB on how earlier mistakes being propogated through later streets?

I think villan has small/medium pair/Axs /2 broadway cards/hand with a 5x in it.

That turncard is a good scare card - I would usually bet 2/3 pot and take it down now or rely on our 'buffet of river outs'. /images/graemlins/heart.gif KJ
Getting raised would be annoying.

(I sometimes check/call turn if villan is likely to bet weak and I can draw cheaply -i.e bets weak when weak hand/slowplays/drawing. )


In fact the more I look at it (-I wouldn't spend this much time at the table) the less I like your draw vs villans range if he calls the turn. Tricky.

Edit reading others I would also 3/4 pot flop -but thats my rough usual size.

[Waingro]

Isn´t that a pretty good board to double barrel? The flop is not likely to have hit you so villain is probably calling thin. You might still have the best hand and if not, you have potentially a boatload of outs. If I check, it is the intention of folding to a resonable bet. Your outs doesn´t look particulary attractive if you are looking to play a big pot on the river when you hit and if villain is indeed floating he might fire the turn with very little.

[Dan Bitel]

either bet again or c/r AI

[Grunch]

I wanted to talk about pre &amp; post one at a time, so I'll start with pre.

Why did I PFR? Because I'm a 30/20 LAG. Ok, that's a little glib, but it's really the essence of it. I PFR many hands that look so-so or pretty ok not because they are such great hands, but because 2/3 of the time when the flop comes the opponent still won't have anything. If he coldcalled pf (or defended, even better) then I'm in a good position to take the pot on the flop.

Normally I like to make my CBs smaller than my VBs on the flop. This is only natural. The problem with this as a strategy is that even Dumbo will pick up on it eventually if I always half pot my CBs and always full pot my VBs. Then I'll start gettiing looked up when I CB, but get no action on my VBs. So sometimes you have to full pot your CBs and half pot your VBs. I happen to mix it up in this way pretty frequently. Possibly more frequently than I need to. Anyway, that's part of the reason why I bet full pot on the flop instead of something less. But another reason is because I felt like I probably had the best hand, and if they were going to continue with a gutshot, 2 overcards or something else, I wanted it to be a maximum error for them to do so. Finally, because I'm OOP I'd much prefer to not play a turn &amp; river, which leans me toward betting more.

That's what &amp; why, so tell me why yall disagree.

[kazana]

I'd prefer a lead over c/rai. Against an aggressive villain I'd even prefer a c/c over c/rai.
I must really be convinced that villain will be folding many better hands to a c/rai to take that option. With a loser image that just seems less likely to work out well.

Other reasons:
Our image is LAG, so I assume villain will look you up with Ax if you c/rai, it's also more likely he called your pfr with Ax if he's been observant. He probably feels less inclined to raise your bet with any Ace, and probably goes for a flat call more often to avoid having to play for his stack.
If he has a pocketpair, he'll hate that turn card and be almost as likely to give up to a lead as a c/r.
Last but not least, if your straight comes in, it'll be pretty obvious and you're less likely to extract much more. So rather get some more chips in now to be able to make a tempting value bet on the river that's big enough to be worthwhile.

About raising 65s UTG:
I'm not as good a postflop player as you are, grunch. Neither do I feel very confident playing draws OOP vs cold-callers. Furthermore, it's really hard for me to get more value after a draw has hit OOP. With your LAG image that should be a lot easier, though.
With my TAG game, I fold this pf.

[gimmetheloot]

Fire, turn is perfect scare card to keep the betting up with. C/R AI is dead sexy if you think he fires turn alot...Unfortunately, I think he checks behind a ton of hands given what the turn card is.

[Grunch]

How good is the turn card to keep betting with really? I mean if he called with overcards, one of them was certianly an ace...

[Check_The_Nuts]

to me, your game should fluctuate between 30/20 lag and 15/12 tag. If you've been caught speeding recently, its probably best to tighten up preflop since all yuor big hands will likely get paid off now. Then loosen up once your FE returns.

Betting 1/2-2/3 pot on the turn should take it often. I think you need to bet for some FE (even tho its probably not really there). Check/raise river if you hit is what I'd do if called (excluding obvious straights hitting).

check/raise turn to me is absolute madness.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
How good is the turn card to keep betting with really? I mean if he called with overcards, one of them was certianly an ace...

[/ QUOTE ]

wow thats a good point.....

[Grunch]

Alright, next step...

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $89
UTG+1: $107.90
CO: $61.30
Button: $98.20
SB: $98.10
BB: $102.85

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($9.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $9.5</font>, Button calls.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/club.gif ($28.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $22</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $44</font>, Hero ... ?

[Check_The_Nuts]

fold, set too often to call IMO. I think this is more of a math problem now.

[kaz2107]

it looks like this is now a math question.

it appears u have 0 FE now thus it just comes down to whether u r getting odds to hit ur straight. and it looks to me like u arent getting good enough odds. (just did a rough estimate math wise)

i prolly just fold to the minraise on the turn. he vary well could have a 2 pair or a set in which case we r well behind

[matrix]

call the turn.

pots offering 4.3:1 - we have 10 outs (8 straight outs and the 2 sixes the 5's aren't good outs cos that puts 4toastraight on board)

pushing is bad cos we have almost no FE now - it looks almost certainly as tho he hit his A. He's not got a straight unless he has 53 (or he's a complete loon that calls with 58) sometimes maybe he's freerolling with 45cc 56cc - but Apaint is a huge part of his range.

pot river if we hit c/f river if we miss.

if he has 2pair or a set and we hit the straight his ass is grass.

If he'd raised properly we have no odds to call - as it's a minraise I'm calling as the implied odds are quite tasty.

re: CB v VB betsizes - rather than mix it all up I tend to 2/3-3/4 pot everything - and go for full pottedness on wet flops.

[derosnec]

i still dont get the PSB on that flop

what does it do that a 2/3 or 3/4 bet doesnt?

fold better hands? no

deny odds that a smaller bet wouldnt? no (unless maybe he has an OESD)

build a pot OOP with a marginal hand? yes

yeah i know it can set up a C/R AI on the turn with some scare cards or an improved hand, but you can do that with a smaller c-bet

btw, i doubt opponents pay much attention to consistency of your c-bet size

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
i doubt opponents pay much attention to consistency of your c-bet size

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the only poinnt we disagree on I think.

[kazana]

Well, according to baluga, this raise says that TP wouldn't be good enough to win. Unless of course villain knows that and is trying to outlevel us. (Which isn't likely the case if you've got a loser image.)

If he has two pair or a set our outs probably aren't enough to give us immediate odds to call, with the huge pot we should be able to get enough value out of a good river card to make it worthwhile, though.

Call.