Straight hits river but I'm being raised?

[Vammakala]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Button ($48.50)
Hero ($96.20)
BB ($17.75)
UTG ($46.90)
MP ($24.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1.

Turn: ($4.50) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks.

River: ($4.50) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $9.5</font>, Hero ???

Villain is 47/8.7/2.77 over 103 hands, went to sd 26%, won at sd 53%. What's my move and why? What does villain have here. As for timing tells, I don't exactly know what it means if it means anything, but he thought a little before calling the flop.

Whaddaya think?

[Unknown Soldier]

I'm finding it v. hard to put villain on a hand here. His betting pattern makes no sense. Busted diamond draw maybe (your bet on the river looks like a steal attempt)? KT is possible. Idk. I'm raising this whatever he has, pot sized raise seems good to me.

[Sir Winalot]

I think me raises to 25. I'm not sure why you ask this but villain certainly doesn't call flop with J9/96 fwiw.

[Vammakala]

I just thought this wasn't as easy of a decision that it looks like. Maybe I'm wrong.

[Panthro]

I don't know...a diamond/OE draw probably snap calls the flop; although he IS an aggro, so maybe he thought about raising? Secondly, unless he was weary of the shorty BB c/r'ing AI or something, I suspect most strong draws bet the turn if checked around (although taking a card with a strong draw is definately a possibility).

2 pair or a set raises the flop/bets the turn.

9/6? Not sure he'd limp UTG with this, and it'd be one sick call on the flop.

88? 7/8? Possible.

[Roadstar]

Villain does with J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

But I agree, 3 bet this, probably just a push

[ QUOTE ]
I think me raises to 25. I'm not sure why you ask this but villain certainly doesn't call flop with J9/96 fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

[BukNaked36]

Losing to 69 and J9 along with K9 and 88 being hands you beat. In game I'm raising to $25 and calling a push. Thinking about it here I may just call as J9 of diamonds is a good candidate.

[Unknown Soldier]

[ QUOTE ]
Losing to 69 and J9 along with K9 and 88 being hands you beat. In game I'm raising to $25 and calling a push. Thinking about it here I may just call as J9 of diamonds is a good candidate.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'de be missing alot of value if you did this

[meleader2]

villain has 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif

[Bonesy]

[ QUOTE ]
I just thought this wasn't as easy of a decision that it looks like. Maybe I'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't look easy to me either. You certainly want to get value on hands like these but you only have the 3rd nuts here. J9s and 96s are certainly within villain's range. His AF is on the high side but it looks like he is on a draw the way he played it. A busted draw isn't calling your reraise but a set and two pair probably are. He may have hit a set of 88's on the river. I guess the pot-sized reraise makes sense. I'm not a great user of PT, but isn't his won at SD% on the high side? The sample size is too small even so. Results would be nice.

[banana182]

I can see why you're confused. I'd put him on two pair (87, 85) or pocket 8's. In either case, I'd raise him. His numbers suggest he might be a lagtard trying to steal.

[Vammakala]

Well I mowed over, thought it for quite a while and came to the conclusion that he had to have 69 to raise me there. Well he had J9o and I dodged a bullet (yea he didn't have any pair or any draw, besides the runner-runner straightdraw). And yea, I'd raise this 95% of the time probably. The flop call seemed "uneasy", maybe he was just coughing or talking to a friend or whatever. Anyway, saved a potential stack here. :[

[Shibby]

I think it's bad that you didn't get it in here. If you think about the # of hands that play this the exact same way that you beat versus the number of hands that beat you, you're losing value over the long run if you always fear the one or two hands that beat you. You got it right this time, but you won't most times.

He can raise the river with a lot of hands. Two pair, set, bluff.