AK in r/raised pot vs. 2p2'er, deep

[z28dreams]

FT, 6max, $50NL

Stack sizes:
UTG: $42.20
UTG+1: $49.45
Villain: $124.80
Button: $15.95
SB: $17.70
Hero: $129.35

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB w/ A/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif
2 folds, Villain raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5.5, Hero calls $3.75 (pot was $7).

Flop: 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($11.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $8
Villain raises to $30
Hero ???

What's your normal line here? We're both > 200bb deep.

Villain is Poincaraux from 2p2. He has pretty normal tag stats, around 25/20. We haven't mixed it up at this table much yet.

Thoughts:

Immediately upon being raised on the flop, my thoughts are "frickin 2p2 aggro [censored] trying to steal my money".

Then, I thought about it some more:
- His r/r calling range is pretty narrow... 22-AA, AK, AQs maybe. Possibly some SC's

His possible hands:
AA - i'm behind
KK - i'm way behind (unlikely hand)
AK - we're even
22-77,99,JJ-QQ, - only raises as a bluff
88 - i'm crushed
TT - i'm crushed

So, in short, I'm really only ahead of a bluff here. In addition, a good TAG should know that AK makes up roughly 44% of my re-raising range from the blinds.

Would he really try to steal with air on a flop like that?

[limit refugee]

If he puts you on AK it is a very good place to steal because it is such a hard spot to call him on. You are behind so much more of his range than you are ahead of, and even if it's a split pot, it's going to cost too much to find out, and he may have spades to boot.

Really tough one, AA he prolly 3 bets as he is oop. But you are deep and the pot is big, you will be felting with TPTK. I'm babbling because I'm wavering, but I think I fold against a good player...maybe he's taking me for a ride, but if that is the case, he may try to make the same move later when you are in a better spot.

Curse.
Fold.
Post.

Just read the other thread...some things I didnt realize was that you are 70:30 against AA-TT, AK. I made the right choice int his particular case, but I still don't know if I am right overall...Just seems so player dependant.

[crookdimwit]

This is not really fair, given the fact that I've already seen Poincaraux's "other-side-of-the-looking-glass" post, but I'll try to not let that affect my take on the hand...

It's a hefty re-raise on the flop, and I figure he has to put you on AA-JJ, maybe AK or TT, given the preflop action. Of course, given that Villain is a 2+2'er, and he's sitting on the cutoff, that range may be a lot wider, since he's got position and probably knows how to use it... This might be SC's or some smaller pocket pair. I figure he knows or has heard of the 5/10 rule, and given that he's got plenty of chips, it's not outside the realm of possibility that he's playing this with 88 or TT... and hoped to hit set. I wouldn't rule out something like JTs or QJs either.

So your flop bet seems pretty standard... it's a value bet but also may look like a c-bet. Villain re-raises pretty strong. If we assume he's giving you credit for reraising preflop OOP, he probably assumes you've at least got a big ace or AA/KK/QQ. And yet he's reraising you, despite being pretty sure you've got at least TPTK.

The problem, I think is that if you call here, the pot will be about $72. Assuming you don't improve, what's your plan on the turn? Can you afford to check the turn?... if you need to bet it again in any serious way, you're pretty much committing your stack to his hand with just TPTK... And TPTK didn't seem to faze villain as a possibility, did it?

Of course as you put it, villain may be thinking third-level right now and betting big to make you go through that exact reasoning. He's got position and may still be trying to make a move to steal this pot. It may be a bluff, and if so, may get posted here and be quite embarassing...

Still, all considered, I think this is a fold. I'd rather lose $14 to what could just be a gutsy bluff than lose my entire stack on a crying call with one pair...

[poincaraux]

Edit: Never mind what I said before.

[poincaraux]

Does it seem a little strange to anyone else that the consensus in this thread is that he should fold, but people told me to raise it up here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8144625&an=0&page=0#Post 8144625)?

[gimmetheloot]

call....
hes 4 bopping AA/KK this deep pf.

c/r a blank turn.