flop a set vs. z28dreams, 250bb stacks, NL50.

[poincaraux]

I haven't played against z28dreams before this session (or, if I have, it hasn't been enough for either of us to get a read on the other).

Aaahhh, if only I could go back to party poker and playing against 6 tables of non-thinking villains.

So, we've both realized who the other person is by now. I've been fairly aggressive. In position, I've been raising a lot. I haven't skipped a c-bet with <= 3 people in the pot, etc. OTOH, I haven't shown any bluffs, and I haven't gotten to showdown with any nutso hands. I have made a couple of marginal call-downs, but I've won them both.

z28 seems to be playing a pretty standard TAG game. We haven't played any big pots vs. each other yet. I don't know for sure, but I think he's probably a little extra tight vs. me. This is the first time he's re-raised me pre-flop.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $42.20
UTG+1: $49.45
Hero: $124.80
Button: $15.95
SB: $17.70
BB: $129.35

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $5.5</font>, Hero calls $3.75 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $7)</font>.

Flop: 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($11.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $8</font>

[poincaraux]

My thoughts:

This is the first time he's reraised me, and I think he probably has a big hand. That's the kind of flop that can be very good for big hands. He led into me, so I think it hit him. I can't really see him re-popping me Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif, so if he has a draw, I think it's a made-hand+draw, i.e. A/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif. I figure that AA, KK and AK are most of his range, but he could have something like QQ KQs sometimes. Given that I think he's playing fairly tight against me, I don't think he's re-popping me pre-flop from the BB with TT.

So, I thought about it, decided that his most likely hand was AK, and raised it to $30. I was hoping he'd push.

I wanted to get all the money in on the flop.

I also considered just calling him down, figuring he might put me on KQ or something and keep firing if he had a strong hand. If he has a one-barrel hand, he's probably folding to my raise. What do you think about that line?

Edit: BTW, I'm a 70:30 favorite over AA-KK, TT, AK on that flop, so my comment about not thinking he has TT is really what I thought, but I don't think it matters too much. Really, I just thought "w00! i think he has AK and will shove."

[z28dreams]

I'd like to see this posted in a reverse fashion as well /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Once this discussion is done, I'll post my hand and ask about feedback.

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see this posted in a reverse fashion as well /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Once this discussion is done, I'll post my hand and ask about feedback.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, please. I don't play a lot of hands vs. people where I have a decent idea about how they're playing, I think they have a decent idea about how I'm playing, and I think we're both actively thinking about the hand, so this hand was really interesting for me.

If you post it, please post your read as well, so I can see what all of my super-obvious leaks are /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[wallywojo]

If we raise here, then face a push

1)How often is it KK?
2)How often is it AKs or AQs?

...not from a mathematics standpoint but from a psychological point. Since you both know each other, higher level thinking begins to take place. He knows I will do this play with a megadraw, so what about doing the same with KK? This is a sick spot, but what about protecting your stack in this case and calling that bet and seeing what becomes of the turn. I know this line lets him see draws for cheaper and is not squeezing out value from our flopped set, but I think the tradeoff of not getting stacked here outweighs that. Also, if they hold AK, then this does get more value from them since they will not be going to the felt with it anyways.

[z28dreams]

If I was in your position, I think I might consider calling here.

Because I re-raised, it's very unlikely that I'm suited (with the exception of AKs, which makes up a small portion of my range), almost every turn card is safe for you. (anything that helps someone with AK is still behind to a set).

I think my line against someone who I think has AK is call flop, c/r all-in on turn.

Anyone have a better line?

[pokerchap]

i never cold call here. he either has a hand that he is felting or one that he is giving up to any type of bet on any street. I can't think of a hand that would fire another street but would not get it AI on this flop.

[z28dreams]

[ QUOTE ]
If we raise here, then face a push

1)How often is it KK?
2)How often is it AKs or AQs?

...not from a mathematics standpoint but from a psychological point. Since you both know each other, higher level thinking begins to take place. He knows I will do this play with a megadraw, so what about doing the same with KK? This is a sick spot, but what about protecting your stack in this case and calling that bet and seeing what becomes of the turn. I know this line lets him see draws for cheaper and is not squeezing out value from our flopped set, but I think the tradeoff of not getting stacked here outweighs that. Also, if they hold AK, then this does get more value from them since they will not be going to the felt with it anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're out of your mind if you're trying to protect your stack against KK here. The questions is how to get all of the money in the middle.

Given a K on the board, there are:
3 Combinations of KK
12 Combination of AK
6 Combinations of AA
6 Combinations of QQ
---
27 total combinations

we'll ignore all other combinations, because they are too unlikely for me to be r/raising a tag

vs. KK (3/27) - 11% chance you're going broke
vs. AA (6/27) - 22% chance you'll likely stack him
vs. AK (12/27) - 44% chance he'll have this (who knows)
vs. QQ (6/27) - 22% chance he'll fold

there's around $20 in the pot right now, so if you raise:
vs. KK - .11(-130) = -$14
vs. QQ - .22(+20) = +$4.4
vs. AA (assume it all gets in) - .22(+130)= 28.6
vs. AK (assume 1/2 the time it gets in, 1/2 the time he folds)
- .22 (+130) +28.6
- .22 (+20) +4.4

Total EV of raising: -14+4.4+28.6+28.6+4.4 = $52

In my next post I'll look at calling flop, then c/raising all in to compare EV.

Please note that I didn't take into account the times that you are sucked out on (I'd have to pokerstove it, which I don't have available. The numbers should be pretty close though, because most of them are only 2-outters or worse)

[z28dreams]

Ok,

let's look to see what happens if we call and villain has AK which might take another shot at the turn-

If we call, the pot at the turn is $28. I find that if a villain gets to the turn, he's a lot more likely to get more 'committed'. However, since I'm 2p2, I also hate turn-raises (thank you Baluga).

Let's take a look to see what happens if I lead the turn again (in case villain has something ridiculous like 6s5s).

If I have:
AA - if I lead flop again and get shoved, I'm pretty sure I'm beat, but still might make the call. Let's say I'll call 1/2 the time.
.11(+130) = +$14
.11(+28 + 21 lead = 49) = +5.39
KK - you're going broke - .11(-130) = -$14
QQ - .22(+49) = +10.78
AK - say 1/2 and 1/2 again
.22 (+130)= 28.6
.22 (+49) = 10.78

total EV = 14+5.39 -14+10.78+28.6+10.78 = $55.55


This is -very- close to the EV of $52 from above. Given the situation, I think a flop raise/call shove is better, because there is a good chance more than 50% of people will go broke w/ AK on this hand.

[z28dreams]

An added note:

To summarize, for most-reraised pots I play them assuming the villain is holding AK.

Why? Because the other combinations pretty much play themselves.

Vs. another set you're absolutely going broke. Vs. a weak pocket pair they will fold eventually. The only interesting hands come with overpair vs. top pair.

[z28dreams]

[ QUOTE ]
If I was in your position, I think I might consider calling here.

Because I re-raised, it's very unlikely that I'm suited (with the exception of AKs, which makes up a small portion of my range), almost every turn card is safe for you. (anything that helps someone with AK is still behind to a set).

I think my line against someone who I think has AK is call flop, c/r all-in on turn.

Anyone have a better line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Edit: Looking at the calculations I made, along with the realization that there are quite a few scare cards (A,Q,J), spades (but not so much), I always raise this flop and pray for a shove.

[poincaraux]

z28:

that's a lot of what i was thinking, but i was doing back-of-the-envelope calculations in my head. it's nice to see it all worked out.

to summarize a couple of things that might've been a little buried:

you re-raised pre, so i have to think you're going to lead out or c/r with just about anything you have. which one you do probably depends quite a bit on your read of me .. i can really only see a c/r being useful against a pocket pair that missed, where you think i'll fold vs. a bet, but might stab if you check. i dunno about that, though, because checking *this* flop after the history and pre-flop action will set off warning bells. so, i'll ignore the c/r possibility for now, but it might be interesting when you post your hand.

AA gets it all in on the flop, but might find a fold on the turn.
KK gets it in on any street.
QQ will lead here, but is pretty likely to fold to a real raise given our dynamics so far. you might get cute with a bet later if i just call, but maybe not. This is true for other pocket pairs, but I don't think they make up very much of your range.
AK has been pretty well covered. Get it in.

One other thing: the range we're giving you here is really tight. If you play that tight over the long term vs. me, I can easily exploit it. I don't think that actually matters in this hand, though. I wonder if that has something to do with why the high-stakes games are so much more aggro .. smaller player pool means you have to care about the long term much earlier.

[orange]

I think vs. most players, you should raise. For obvious reasons of course, building the pot, protecting your hand, whatever.

But given z28's rr-ing range (which, IMO, is probably fairly tight given deep stacks and OOP), I would say that AA/KK/AK/AQ/sometimes a few lesser hands are there. I doubt he would have a hand like QJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif as poin mentioned.

I think the only hand we really win $ off of is AA. And even then, I'm not sure if z28 is going broke off w. AA in this spot.

I think that you can call here alot. Raising does has its merits off winning a larger pot, but if you think about it, his calling range of our raise is really really slim. I would say AA (sometimes) and KK are about it. Spades are rarely in his range here. Obviously if he has a hand like QQ, we arent winning any money anyway.

So, in typical RR-ed pots, I will raise this flop vs. an unknown player with these stacks. Vs. tougher opponents, I think it is better to not convey the strength of your hand as fast as usual (for deception and extraction purposes). I think that he generally bets the turn here with AA/AK.