Basic EV question

[matrix]

quick question so that I can check I am doing this correctly...

I have AK oop I know that villain holds Axs and is a 70/30 dog before the flop.

we have 100BB stacks

an EP guy minraises - villain on the button calls (he's a station)

5.5BB in the pot.

How much do I need to raise to make sure that no matter what flops his call is -EV.

and how do you work it out?

[Hellmouth]

[ QUOTE ]
quick question so that I can check I am doing this correctly...

I have AK oop I know that villain holds Axs and is a 70/30 dog before the flop.

we have 100BB stacks

an EP guy minraises - villain on the button calls (he's a station)

5.5BB in the pot.

How much do I need to raise to make sure that no matter what flops his call is -EV.

and how do you work it out?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would like to take a stab at this even though I think that I could be completely wrong.

First lets make some assumptions.
a. We are in the BB. Minraiser is ep and will fold to any sizable raise.
b. Calling station with AXs will call any size bet.
c. Pot has 1sb+1bb+2bb+2bb by the time we raise.
d. We have 100BB and Villian has 100BB (this is technically incorrect but probably easier to work with)

We Plug this all into poker stove assuming we have AKs and villian has AQs-A2s.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:70.7843 % 68.65% 02.14% { AcKc }
Hand 2:29.2157 % 27.08% 02.14% { AQs-A2s }

Lets just say that we are about a two to one favorite. (66.6% to 33.33%)

I would say that as long as our bet+pot gives villian worse than 2:1 odds we win.

So if we Raise by 5.5BB (pot is 11 BB and villain has to Call another 5.5BB) then he/she is gettign proper odds. If we raise by more than another 5.5BB we are not offering proper odds.

However since we are a 2-1 favorite we ought to put as much money in as we think villian will call.

Greg

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
quick question so that I can check I am doing this correctly...

I have AK oop I know that villain holds Axs and is a 70/30 dog before the flop.

we have 100BB stacks

an EP guy minraises - villain on the button calls (he's a station)

5.5BB in the pot.

How much do I need to raise to make sure that no matter what flops his call is -EV.

and how do you work it out?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would like to take a stab at this even though I think that I could be completely wrong.

First lets make some assumptions.
a. We are in the BB. Minraiser is ep and will fold to any sizable raise.
b. Calling station with AXs will call any size bet.
c. Pot has 1sb+1bb+2bb+2bb by the time we raise.
d. We have 100BB and Villian has 100BB (this is technically incorrect but probably easier to work with)

We Plug this all into poker stove assuming we have AKs and villian has AQs-A2s.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:70.7843 % 68.65% 02.14% { AcKc }
Hand 2:29.2157 % 27.08% 02.14% { AQs-A2s }

Lets just say that we are about a two to one favorite. (66.6% to 33.33%)

I would say that as long as our bet+pot gives villian worse than 2:1 odds we win.

So if we Raise by 5.5BB (pot is 11 BB and villain has to Call another 5.5BB) then he/she is gettign proper odds. If we raise by more than another 5.5BB we are not offering proper odds.

However since we are a 2-1 favorite we ought to put as much money in as we think villian will call.
Greg

[/ QUOTE ]
You can't really use equities to determine what size bet to make. With a hand like Axs a huge part of that equity comes from seeing the river. If you truly know villian only has Axs then you will be able to run him off essentially every hand by making sufficiently large bets.

As with every EV calculation the devil is in the assumptions. You can do some calculations by assigning some actions to villain (i.e. felts it with tptk or better only or calls any bet with any flop) but since you never truly KNOW he has Axs its kind of a pointless chore.

In fact if you KNOW he has Axs I'm sure that even a minraise preflop would be EV- for villain to call since you can play him nearly perfectly postflop.

Edit: I guess one way to approach this from a real world direction is to say "how do I make the Axs portion of his range EV- to call". Even if you say that then you have to spell out how both you and he will play post flop...its a lot of variables and assumptions to tackle for hundreds of possible flops. If he is a station and you are aggro...then again he probably can't call any bet profitably since you have him dominated and in most cases will not let him draw profitably since you are taking the lead in the hand.

[Vammakala]

Uhhh Matrix is asking how much you have to raise to make it -EV no matter what comes down.

That means you have to cut the implied odds to be less than 2-to-1. Otherwise the implied odds can screw you over. That means effectively raising anything more than ~30% of his stack (hence the ~70% equity). That way, no matter what comes on the flop, hero can get AI and still make at least a marginal profit (Or break even cuz of the rake or whatever ;D)

If you raise to like 10 BB, flop can very easily screw hero over here even if it gives villain 2-to-1 to call preflop.

If you know you're against a dominated ace, you're around 70-30 so we're not really using equity ranges, it just happens to be almost the same for all hands. That's also why you'd want to commit enough chips preflop with AA/KK types of hands so postflop mistakes get negleted, if you get over 20% of your stack in preflop with AA, you can't lose, no matter what you do postflop.