The cost of mistakes

[jumbojacks]

I'm finding that 2 or 3 mistakes for stacks frequently result in negative sessions. Is the margin of error typically this small?

[ChipStorm]

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I'm finding that 2 or 3 mistakes for stacks frequently result in negative sessions. Is the margin of error typically this small?

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It can easily be this small.

A strong win rate is 10 PTBB/100 = 20 big blinds per 100 hands, or 0.2 big blinds per hand. That's a strong win rate. Make one mistake for your stack every 500 hands, and there goes your entire edge.

IMO, a lot of people at this level underestimate the degree to which consistency of competent play matters. Playing 90% of your hands well is almost certainly losing play. You probably don't get to consistently winning until you handle >97% of your hands with a reasonably competent line.

[CaptVimes]

I think this is very accurate. I made one mistake in a big pot last night that took most of my stack when I was up about 50bbs, I reloaded and eventually made it back to being up about 20bbs for the night. You can see how much I would have been up if I would have just stopped and seen the trap I was falling into. Even if I could have just cut that loss in half I would have been up well over 150bbs.

[the machine]

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I think this is very accurate. I made one mistake in a big pot last night that took most of my stack when I was up about 50bbs, I reloaded and eventually made it back to being up about 20bbs for the night. You can see how much I would have been up if I would have just stopped and seen the trap I was falling into. Even if I could have just cut that loss in half I would have been up well over 150bbs.

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but what you forget to include is the meta game factor that you losing a pot has on other players. this may help you to win more pots and bigger pots down the road.

[crookdimwit]

That's the essence of NL poker, I'm afraid. I've had great nights where I've played great poker for hours, and seen it all undone with one or two bad decisions and the worst time...

Three weeks ago I was in Vegas, playing $1/$2 NL, and doing great for most of the weekend. Despite playing some of the best live poker I'm capable of, one bad, sleep-deprived mis-step with TPGK vs. a opponent I was convinced was bluffing cost me 2/3 of my profit for the weekend...

In general, I've found that an ongoing education in NL holdem is about minimizing those big mistakes, or better yet, learning how to keep from putting yourself in the position where you're at risk at making that that kind of mistake in the first place.

No one plays mistake-free poker, but with experience, I think good, skilled players minimize their chances at making big mis-steps. A lot of good poker fundamentals, and a lot of 2+2 wisdom has helped me a lot in this regard -- being much more attentive to position, avoiding trap hands out of position, not getting carried away with overpairs or TPTK, not underestimating opponents, sizing bets well, reading hands and betting patterns more carefully... All these things add up over time and reduce your chances of making big, costly mistakes...

[CaptVimes]

[quote

but what you forget to include is the meta game factor that you losing a pot has on other players. this may help you to win more pots and bigger pots down the road.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't find this at NL2. People come in and out of the game so much that I don't think they think or care much. Besides I tilt too much when I lose a pot like this, although for some reason I kept my cool last night.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ImprovinNewbie]

i just started play the NL cash again after a shove-and-go stint and slow consistent play is the way to go in these games. don't work at playing for stacks. try to chip away at lots of small pots relatively risk free. try to get your money in (in the big pots) as a lot or a HUGE favorite... there is no reason to flip a coin for the big bucks. i've just started to be able to do this but as an example of what not to do, last night i was up aboutt 80BB for the day when some guy pushed on an 8 high board and i had jacks... his middle pair becomes trips and i lose 30BB of profit. the next thing you know i played a big hand with TPTK OOP and tried to double my stack instead of playing small ball with a vulnerable hand and failed to see when villians inside straight filled... well thats it im only playing for stacks with TP any kicker and now im down 60BB for the day... don't play like that!

[4_2_it]

One of the first major evolutionary steps in a poker player's career is learning to avoid making the big mistakes.

Good players can recover from small mistakes, but consistently making big mistakes over your sessions is the freeway to Bustoville.

[the machine]

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[quote

but what you forget to include is the meta game factor that you losing a pot has on other players. this may help you to win more pots and bigger pots down the road.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't find this at NL2. People come in and out of the game so much that I don't think they think or care much. Besides I tilt too much when I lose a pot like this, although for some reason I kept my cool last night.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a generalized conception for poker in general. im not just saying it for uNL games but in general, because OP's statement applies to all of poker

[Supwithbates]

it's so annoying. I'll all sorts of donkeys making mistakes every time they play a hand and finishing up on the night, then I make one bad play and lose a buyin and most of my winnings. I'm still averaging 29BB/100 over the first 2k hands in November, luckily.

[eigenvalue]

Every time I start playing NL 6 max, I tell myself:
"I love my stack!"

[Antinome]

Avoid mistakes, yes....

Fear dropping a stack or two, no.

Otherwise you end up Weak/Tight.

Don't love your stack, love your bankroll.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
Avoid mistakes, yes....

Fear dropping a stack or two, no.

Otherwise you end up Weak/Tight.

Don't love your stack, love your bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]
Love this, especially the last line, nh nome.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the first major evolutionary steps in a poker player's career is learning to avoid making the big mistakes.

Good players can recover from small mistakes, but consistently making big mistakes over your sessions is the freeway to Bustoville.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you give some examples? I was pm'ing one of the other mods yesterday back and forth about another subject and I brought up the fact that since switching to this game I'm doing well this month but "still have a significant problem I think, I just don't know what it is." Now I think I do. When I lose money:

1. My lucksack sucks, no biggie, variance etc but I get beat AI preflop when I'm ahead more often than is normal. That isn't my problem, thats variance right now.

2. Getting it allin when I'm behind. This is the problem, and it comes in many varieties.

a. AQs on a A57A board and I lose to 77 - probably acceptable for the most part.

b. AKo on a A72 flop - over playing my TP - something to be learned here on hand reading after the flop.

c. JJ in a reraised pot pre, 937 board reraised after a c/bet - shove by me = horrible. I really liked the example in EMc's RIO's thread the other day. For some reason I wasn't looking at these from a RIO's perspective.

Thoughts?

[wslee00]

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b. AKo on a A72 flop - over playing my TP - something to be learned here on hand reading after the flop.


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I'd love to see how this hand played out. If you got c/r'ed on the turn or river, then I can see a laydown.

[the machine]

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b. AKo on a A72 flop - over playing my TP - something to be learned here on hand reading after the flop.


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I'd love to see how this hand played out. If you got c/r'ed on the turn or river, then I can see a laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah im not laying down this unless im given a reason to with some odd line from villain that tells me im beat

[GtrHtr]

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b. AKo on a A72 flop - over playing my TP - something to be learned here on hand reading after the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]
I'd love to see how this hand played out. If you got c/r'ed on the turn or river, then I can see a laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll convert a couple when I get home if you want, just let me know.

[DannieUke]

Antinome's comment on becoming weak-tight is of value. After all, those same "mistakes" that cost us a buy in or two are also sometimes the same good calls or suck outs (in our favor) that end up giving us a >100 BB boost in a session.

Personally, I'm finding that at 02$NL you can pretend to be as savvy as you want, but the bulk of the profit comes from nut peddling. It's constant fluctuations in my stack until that moment that I can go AI with what is the best of it at that time. Out of 6K hands, if you take away the top five money-making hands played, I'm in the red. Do the same for the five largest money-losing hands, and I nearly double my BB/100.

And if you don't love the swings, then there's always a limit table open...

So -- now, can someone please explain "meta" game to me...

[jively]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm finding that 2 or 3 mistakes for stacks frequently result in negative sessions. Is the margin of error typically this small?

[/ QUOTE ]
It can easily be this small.

A strong win rate is 10 PTBB/100 = 20 big blinds per 100 hands, or 0.2 big blinds per hand. That's a strong win rate. Make one mistake for your stack every 500 hands, and there goes your entire edge.

[/ QUOTE ]
The strong win rate of 10 PTBB/100 includes getting stacked once in a while. The fish make so many mistakes for their stacks that I think you could overcome getting stacked once every 500 hands.

-Tom

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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I'm finding that 2 or 3 mistakes for stacks frequently result in negative sessions. Is the margin of error typically this small?

[/ QUOTE ]
It can easily be this small.

A strong win rate is 10 PTBB/100 = 20 big blinds per 100 hands, or 0.2 big blinds per hand. That's a strong win rate. Make one mistake for your stack every 500 hands, and there goes your entire edge.

[/ QUOTE ]
The strong win rate of 10 PTBB/100 includes getting stacked once in a while. The fish make so many mistakes for their stacks that I think you could overcome getting stacked once every 500 hands.

-Tom

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course you'll get stacked at least that often. I'm not talking about Sklansky FTOP mistakes. I'm talking making an error that, with sound ABC play (not omniscience), you shouldn't have made.

My point is just this: Over 500 hands you can expect, with a good win rate, to win only ~100BB. So it's very easy to throw away your entire average win for those 500 in one single boneheaded play. The edge IS that thin.

[mason55]

Something that many people forget when thinking about no limit hands is that most of your money goes into the pot with equity. Sure, you might get 50bb into the pot with 33% equity, but you're not actually losing 50bb when you do that. When you look at the money in the pot, that mistake might be even smaller.

Another key concept to remember is that when you put your money in, you're putting it in against your opponents range. You might be a 66% dog to the exact hand he had but you might be ahead of his range, and that's what really matters (as long as you're figuring his range correctly).

Say you have AA and the flop is 742 rainbow. If your bad opponent will get it in with a set or any overpair, even though you have very little equity if you get it in against his set, you have 80% equity against his range. So when he stacks you for 100bb this time, dont look at it as a 100bb mistake, look at it as an 80bb win in the long run.

You'll drive yourself crazy if you look at every hand and see how many bb's you lost against an individual hand instead of his entire range.

[bohus04]

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I'm finding that 2 or 3 mistakes for stacks frequently result in negative sessions. Is the margin of error typically this small?

[/ QUOTE ]
It can easily be this small.

A strong win rate is 10 PTBB/100 = 20 big blinds per 100 hands, or 0.2 big blinds per hand. That's a strong win rate. Make one mistake for your stack every 500 hands, and there goes your entire edge.

[/ QUOTE ]
The strong win rate of 10 PTBB/100 includes getting stacked once in a while. The fish make so many mistakes for their stacks that I think you could overcome getting stacked once every 500 hands.

-Tom

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course you'll get stacked at least that often. I'm not talking about Sklansky FTOP mistakes. I'm talking making an error that, with sound ABC play (not omniscience), you shouldn't have made.

My point is just this: Over 500 hands you can expect, with a good win rate, to win only ~100BB. So it's very easy to throw away your entire average win for those 500 in one single boneheaded play. The edge IS that thin.

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i agree, just would say the edge isnt that smal but the mistake is so big...

[Mercman572]

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Something that many people forget when thinking about no limit hands is that most of your money goes into the pot with equity. Sure, you might get 50bb into the pot with 33% equity, but you're not actually losing 50bb when you do that. When you look at the money in the pot, that mistake might be even smaller.

Another key concept to remember is that when you put your money in, you're putting it in against your opponents range. You might be a 66% dog to the exact hand he had but you might be ahead of his range, and that's what really matters (as long as you're figuring his range correctly).

Say you have AA and the flop is 742 rainbow. If your bad opponent will get it in with a set or any overpair, even though you have very little equity if you get it in against his set, you have 80% equity against his range. So when he stacks you for 100bb this time, dont look at it as a 100bb mistake, look at it as an 80bb win in the long run.

You'll drive yourself crazy if you look at every hand and see how many bb's you lost against an individual hand instead of his entire range.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is all very true. If anyone does not fully appreciate Mason's statements, you have to re-read some Sklansky.

On the flip side, one BIG mistake is unrealistically setting an opponent's range. One example is that you arbitrarily widen the possible hands the opponent can have because you're tilting and looking for a call.
Be careful not to use hindsite bias though; my above example does NOT apply to the time you called AI with KK pf and the opponent tabled aces. Yes, his range really is more than just AA

[phydaux]

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but what you forget to include is the meta game factor that you losing a pot has on other players. this may help you to win more pots and bigger pots down the road.

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You do realise this is micro-stakes, right? Most of our opponents are playing poker, surfing the net and watching The Shield re-runs all at the same time. I'm crushing .01/.02 with simple, predictable ABC play.

[the machine]

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but what you forget to include is the meta game factor that you losing a pot has on other players. this may help you to win more pots and bigger pots down the road.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realise this is micro-stakes, right? Most of our opponents are playing poker, surfing the net and watching The Shield re-runs all at the same time. I'm crushing .01/.02 with simple, predictable ABC play.

[/ QUOTE ]

as i already posted before

this is a generalized conception for poker in general. im not just saying it for uNL games but in general, because OP's statement applies to all of poker

not just applying to uNL, but at 50NL there are def some thinking players