50NL 6m JJ overpair turn decision [Archive] - Two Plus Two Newer Archives

nogenius

11-20-2006, 10:51 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($48.30)
Button ($32.70)
SB ($40.40)
BB ($55.35)
UTG ($29.50)
MP ($31)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, Button calls $1.75, 2 folds.

Flop: ($4.25) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, Button calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.25) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

---

Villian is an unknown.

What's your turn play here?

Vammakala

11-20-2006, 11:19 PM

I would be more inclined to pot it on flop, not that the difference would be too big.

As played, I think I'd fire $7 or $8 on turn. If he raises, it's pretty clear that he's likely to have the flush. He'll only call if he had a hand like 67 (I'd guess), in which case you still have outs going to the river (2 jacks, 2 fives and the flush outs). You have at least 4 outs in vast majority of cases here - he could've easily been calling with hand like 89, A8, etc too, in fact, 99- probably calls you too.

If he raises the turn though, I think you're screwed. But betting here is definitely worth it. He might even have two big cards with one being a spade. I think it's quite hard to give a specific line for such situation since having a read does change it a bit. But against an unknown, I'd bet this like - 80% of the time or something.