Rethinking big draws - Part 2

[Kyriefurro]

This post is a continuation of the discussion I started in Rethinking big draws - Part 1 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=8120476&page=0&fpart=all &vc=1) . It's another big draw hand, with a bit of a twist.

There are a couple of important points that make this hand different than the hand in Part 1...

1) My draw isn't as strong.

2) Villain is short stacked.

3) Although semi-loose/aggressive preflop (just like villain 1 was), THIS villain is very weak/tight post flop. His postflop AF is only 0.50 and his WSD is a mere 7%! I've been picking on him relentlessly for the last hour, which explains why he's short stacked /images/graemlins/laugh.gif.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($45.25)
MP ($32.15)
Hero ($49.30)
Button ($55.15)
SB ($26.55)
BB ($25.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $14</font>, Hero.....?

Yeah, he's short stacked, but a b/3-bet from a weak-tight player means trouble.

What's my line, and why?

[carnivalhobo]

the difference is that you have showdown value with this draw, you should push and feel good when he calls. How many hands do you have on him? you could easily be freerolling him or WA against KJ or the likes.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

he has about $10 left behind after his 3bet, so you've got to put in a total of $16 more to win $37. so you're getting over 2-1 with two cards to come, so getting it in here is great

[ddrstel]

Right now, it's safe to assume you have zero fold equity if you push. Villain has shown he's obviously pot committed here. It can be safe to presume he will call if you shove.

So, assuming he 3-bet all in, the pot now stands at $36, with $16 more for you to call.

This is all about pegging a player on a specific range, and working out how you fare against that range.

Would it be too tight to assume he is precisely on a set of treys or fours here?
You said your reads on the BB is he is very weak/tight post flop and you have the stats to back it up.

Against a weak/tight player, a b/3-bet shows great strength.


<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>5,940 games 0.005 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 3s 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.9495 % 29.95% 00.00% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 70.0505 % 70.05% 00.00% { 44-33 }</pre><hr />


If you call, 30% of the time, you win $52 (= $15.60)
If you call, 70% of the time, you lose $26 (= -$18.20)

Meaning that calling in this spot has a -EV of $2.60

However, putting a player on such a tight range might be incorrect. If you have reason to believe he might be getting very annoyed with you beating down on his chip stack, his range increases as he could be 3-betting with a wider range of hands (including air). We could factor in Ax/images/graemlins/spade.gif, pairs from 55-TT, KT+, 34.


<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>71,280 games 0.016 secs 4,455,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 3s 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 78.6728 % 76.65% 02.02% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 21.3272 % 19.31% 02.02% { TT-33, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As2s, KTo+, 43o }</pre><hr />


At this point, his equity drops substantially and its an easy call.

So, this comes down to a read. Do you think he has reason to play back at you with nothing? If so, 4-bet all in. If you're confident he's on precisely 33 or 44 here, fold.

In my experience, it would be foolish to put a player on such a tight range. I think BB doesn't have 33-44 here often enough to make this a correct call.


(Sorry, this is my first post in uNL, hope it was helpful /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

[Pokey]

I was thinking about putting a bunch of analysis into this post, but really, this one is very straightforward:

1. You have a STRONG made hand.
2. You have a STRONG draw.
3. The pot is large.
4. Your opponent is short.
5. Your opponent could easily be getting sick of you.

All told, you're pot committed. I'd just push, knowing he's going to call, knowing that he might have a better draw or he might have a better hand but he can't have both. If he folds (highly unlikely), you OWN this guy. Expect him to be on three-fisted monkey tilt after this hand. If he calls, flip that coin and see what comes of it. Either way, your image is about to change -- be ready for it.

[TyFuji]

salt n peppa time!

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
5. Your opponent could easily be getting sick of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha...yeah. This was the deciding factor here. As nittish as is, I was really afraid he'd finally caught his hand and was making his stand with a monster. And then I figured I might have finally tilted him, and he was doing this with a weaker K. So I pushed. And he showed me 44.

*sigh*

The Poker Gods were not kind this weekend. I seriously had 6 big draws like the two I posted. All 6 times I ended up against a set. I didn't improve in 5 of the hands. And the 6th hand, when I caught my draw on the turn? Villain filled up on the river.

[Pokey]

Sounds like Sklansky owes you a bunch of bucks. I'll make you a deal: at next year's Boondoggle I'll hold him down and you can beat both of our Sklansky Bucks out of him. If he coughs it up, great; if not, we at least get the satisfaction of having pounded the stuffing out of a fat, old man.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
If he coughs it up, great; if not, we at least get the satisfaction of having pounded the stuffing out of a fat, old man.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a member of the fat, old man club, I'm not so sure who's more likely to be on the receiving end of said pounding /images/graemlins/laugh.gif. But thanks for making me laugh. I needed it.