JJ on safish board, ugly turn, standard line?

[Vammakala]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Hero ($49.25)
SB ($58.55)
BB ($97.55)
UTG ($68.20)
MP ($55.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $5.

Flop: ($14.75) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, UTG calls $10.

Turn: ($34.75) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($34.75) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $22</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $56.75

Villain's second raising hand on the row, first orbit, haven't seen him show down anything. After the hand he said "69off", but i doubt that was what he really had. I'm beat here like 100% right?

[essence86]

I would fold. He is NOT afraid of the A (if he thinks you have one).
If he does have AK, he is very confident about his kicker.

He could also have 10-10, and decided to slow play, so that big river bet by him might just be him compensating for the missed turn bet.

[Hattifnatt]

Second raising hand in a row sais absolutely nothing. I probably bet 20 on the turn folding to a raise.

[Sir Winalot]

I would probably play it the same as OP.

[Vammakala]

Yea I know it doesn't say much, but i try to factor everything possible in this.

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
Second raising hand in a row sais absolutely nothing. I probably bet 20 on the turn folding to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

simply not possible. OP: standard hand.

[dedmoney]

I'd bet the turn, fold if c/r. Since you had position and checked, you basically gave him a reason to bluff you on the river by showing that much weakness. If he check raises, you bail and are out $15-20. But he could have been drawing to the clubs or spades and you gave him a free card while showing weakness.

Say you make it 20 and he just calls, he's either drawing or has a weak ace, in most cases and you know where you stand.

Now, you have no idea if he was setting you up for the c/r, if he's drawing, or if he's full of crap.

[dedmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Second raising hand in a row sais absolutely nothing. I probably bet 20 on the turn folding to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

simply not possible. OP: standard hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

pls explain.

[gimmetheloot]

If hero bets 15-20 he will have 9-15$ left if he gets c/r getting 9:1 or 6:1 on his money...hes pot committed if he fires the turn.

Also, no worse hand calls a turn bet, ever....Maybe QQ folds...but thats all for better hands folding.

[dedmoney]

ahhh, missed the stack sizes. I see what you're saying.

[robinmbuk]

I really wouldn't be checking this turn, your just handing him an oppertunity to win the pot if you do. I generally don't fear overcards on the turn, although he could have called the clop with A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif or even AT. Still I bet like 1/2 the pot here. You could well have had this pot stolenfrom you as villian could have had a missed flush draw. As played I fold the river, with that 2nd ten your now only beating a busted flush.

[robinmbuk]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, no worse hand calls a turn bet, ever

[/ QUOTE ]

Not all bets are designed to be called, only value bets After the flop the pots already fairly large, a turn bet is designed not so much as a value bet but to fold out flush draws / make it harder for villian to be able to bluff river.

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, no worse hand calls a turn bet, ever

[/ QUOTE ]

Not all bets are designed to be called, only value bets After the flop the pots already fairly large, a turn bet is designed not so much as a value bet but to fold out flush draws / make it harder for villian to be able to bluff river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, what are we folding out again? for 1/2 pot too?
What club draw do you think he has in a RR pot that didnt hit on the turn?
Why do you think betting this turn is a smart move?

[testaaja]

I would bet the turn here, like $20ish. This way I could make him fold KK, QQ, JJ (or not), flush draw, air ETC ETC. Now, I fold the river as you checked turn.
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think betting this turn is a smart move?

[/ QUOTE ] Well I can go either way. I don't see anything wrong with betting it. If he check raises us we know we are beat. By betting he doesn't get a free card, sure pot controll, but then we would call the river? Why can't this be something like nines? or even sevens? Checking is good against people who are reasonable but if I don't know the villain it's fairly possible that I fire another shell on that turn.

[lakemalcom]

I think this line is fine. Since there aren't any reads on him and the fact is that the only thing you're beating is a missed draw, I don't see how a turn bet could be good here.

Yes, you're getting information, but take this for example - If the villain is fairly normal, a bit loose, maybe he'll have a range like this: QQ-99,AQs-A7s,ATo+. The only thing you're beating in there is 99. Loosen up the villain further and I still think you're going to see weak aces calling to the river, especially if there's a decent-sized bet on the turn.

I'd be happy to throw this one away and wait for a better spot and more information to use on this opponent.

Bluff catching isn't good unless you're sure your opponent is a habitual bluffer, and this hand is just too expensive to make that move.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

Vam,

if you are intending on calling a bet on the river if it blanks off (say 2 of hearts) then i like checking the turn.

if you are basically giving up here when the ace hits i don't mind turning your hand into a bluff. so the issue here is whether you think your jacks still have showdown value on the turn. obv. against an unknown this would be very hard to judge so i would probably check here

[Vammakala]

We're only 100 BB deep to begin with and the pot is $35, any reasonable bet will essentially commit more than half of my stack. In a standard raised pot, I'd second barrel, but in this case, I have $33 left to a $35 pot. If I bet $20 I have $13 left - you're suggesting folding that?

And what difference does it make to push for $33 or bet fold leaving me with $13. Just doesn't seem to have much upside to it. As played, maybe I should've called the river, since I gave him every reason to bluff, but consider that it really is a reraised pot and 99- are the only potential hands I could see him having here that I do beat.

I dunno if pushing the turn would be okay, but since he calls the flop, I'd imagine him having like QQ+ or AKs of clubs, putting some heavy weight on them pairs. As far as river goes, the T was kinda the worst card - if he's a donk calling me with AT (well that actually outdrew me on turn) or some other Tx, even that beats me now.

But ye, maybe I should change my hand into a bluff. Taking the cheap way out seemed fairly reasonable though.