Crime drop poll

[DcifrThs]

According to my (your) own thoughts and readings:

Further, why do you think so?

[CrazyIrishman]

Also, a copious amount of weed being smoked.



and hippies.

[DougShrapnel]

[ QUOTE ]
According to my (your) own thoughts and readings:

Further, why do you think so?

[/ QUOTE ]The removal of religion as a guide to ethics regarding family values in the 60's.

[Stu Pidasso]

It wasn't abortion. England also had a substantial drop in crime that started the same time as the drop in the United States. England legalized abortion 5 years earlier than the United States. I think it was Rodney King's stirring speech about how we should all get along.

Stu

[CrazyIrishman]

[ QUOTE ]
It wasn't abortion. England also had a substantial drop in crime that started the same time as the drop in the United States. England legalized abortion 5 years earlier than the United States. I think it was MLK's stirring speech about how we should all get along.

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[Metric]

It was the dramatic increase of "concealed weapon license" issuing states during the 1990's.

http://www.gun-nuttery.com/rtc.gif

[Phil153]

Changes in television programming and the media.

[CrazyIrishman]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, a copious amount of weed being smoked.



and hippies.

[/ QUOTE ]
God I managed to read the post as crime from in the 1970's...
I am a complete moron.
Vote is still the same, booming economy.
Still think hippies have something to do with it...
Children born in the 70's are just hitting adulthood and have a slightly different attitude about them.

[dragon14]

It was an increase in the number of people in prison or jail. When criminals are locked up, they can't commit crimes.

Department of Justice Incarceration Statistics (http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/incrt.htm)

[soon2bepro]

General overall intellectual improvement.

[arahant]

This issue is confusing.
Ergo, God did it.

Oh man...sorry...look what this forum has done to me!

Wasn't there a relative fall in the number of people at peak criminal activity ages? Not sure what time period you are discussing here...

[hmkpoker]

[ QUOTE ]

This issue is confusing.
Ergo, God did it.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jogsxyz]

[ QUOTE ]
This issue is confusing.
Ergo, God did it.

Oh man...sorry...look what this forum has done to me!

Wasn't there a relative fall in the number of people at peak criminal activity ages? Not sure what time period you are discussing here...

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I heard. Older people commit fewer crimes.

[dragon14]

The incarceration rate increased from 313 per 100,000 in 1991 to 486 per 100,000 in 2004. The crime rate rose dramatically from 1961 to 1991 and has decreased since.

[madnak]

Yeah, the illegalization of drugs caused a huge crime spree, don'chaknow.

[NLSoldier]

All of the above?

[dragon14]

All crimes have dropped as the incarceration rate has continued to increase. Murder, rape, burglary, etc.

[madnak]

*sigh* You mean I actually have to be serious. Oh well, that'll be hard.

Did you ever hear that correlation doesn't imply causation, or take the time to notice that all these other hypotheses are based on solid correlations as well? You've just presented the minimum possible evidence to have your idea taken seriously, and yet you're acting like you've proved a point. Morover, last I checked "post hoc ergo propter hoc" isn't a particularly valid way to reason.

[vhawk01]

I thought it was because of the 'falling out of fashion' of crack cocaine? Obviously what madnak said about correlation is still true, but just to add to the list of possible causes, there was a big spike in the use of crack cocaine in the late 80's which correlated to the corresponding peak in homicides, at least here in DC.

I thought the chapter in Freakanomics about this, citing abortion as a root cause was sort of funny, at least wrt getting people to think about things and also making the point about causation and correlation.

[madnak]

The interesting thing is that there are so many variables correlated with the crime drop and therefore with one another. When I see this I usually say "there was no simple caused for this - it was a result of many things." Social phenomena make weather look predictable.

But people keep wanting to ascribe simple singular causes to social phenomena. I don't get it.

[dragon14]

madnak,

You might notice that the poll offers several options, with abortion and the economy getting the most votes. You might also notice that increased rates of incarceration is not a choice. The only way to bring this into the debate is to write a post about it.

Ignoring the fact that the US has 1 million more prisoners in 2005 than 1990 and attributing the decrease to abortion rates and the economy seems foolish to me. In fact Levitt has a paper from 1996 in which he wrote that for each prisoner that is locked up, there is a reduction of 15 crimes.

If you have a theory and any data to back it up, feel free to put it out there.

[madnak]

I think I just described what I think.

[peritonlogon]

[ QUOTE ]
It was the dramatic increase of "concealed weapon license" issuing states during the 1990's.

http://www.gun-nuttery.com/rtc.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

How many times will this argument have to be refuted before it goes away?

BTW, I'm pro gun, but I'm more pro good argument.

[peritonlogon]

[ QUOTE ]
It was an increase in the number of people in prison or jail. When criminals are locked up, they can't commit crimes.

Department of Justice Incarceration Statistics (http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/incrt.htm)

[/ QUOTE ]

So, by this logic American just manufactures an order of magnitude more criminals than other wester countries for no real reason...maybe we should start exporting our prisoners.

[peritonlogon]

[ QUOTE ]
The interesting thing is that there are so many variables correlated with the crime drop and therefore with one another. When I see this I usually say "there was no simple caused for this - it was a result of many things." Social phenomena make weather look predictable.

But people keep wanting to ascribe simple singular causes to social phenomena. I don't get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The freakenomics argument was specifically factoring in other aspects. It also debunked some other ones as well.

[dragon14]

[ QUOTE ]
So, by this logic American just manufactures an order of magnitude more criminals than other wester countries for no real reason...maybe we should start exporting our prisoners.

[/ QUOTE ]

This thread is on what the drop in crime in the 90s is attributable to. I've never said anything about "manufacturing prisoners".

At any rate here's a paper from Levitt Levitt paper (http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf) Levitt discusses the top reasons why crime fell. He attributes 25-30 percent of the crime drop to abortion and 32 percent to increased prison population.

Even the champion of the abortion argument cedes that increased prison population is the most important factor.

[peritonlogon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, by this logic American just manufactures an order of magnitude more criminals than other wester countries for no real reason...maybe we should start exporting our prisoners.

[/ QUOTE ]

This thread is on what the drop in crime in the 90s is attributable to. I've never said anything about "manufacturing prisoners".

At any rate here's a paper from Levitt Levitt paper (http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf) Levitt discusses the top reasons why crime fell. He attributes 25-30 percent of the crime drop to abortion and 32 percent to increased prison population.

Even the champion of the abortion argument cedes that increased prison population is the most important factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey now, I put these words, "manufacturing criminals," into your mouth, not "manufacturing prisoners."

Get it strait /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Metric]

Am I allowed any kind of tongue-in-cheek replies on this forum or what?