10NL FR AA faces turn bet

[RobinX]

- SB sitting in seat 1 with $7.54
- Villain sitting in seat 3 with $10.56
- UTG+2 sitting in seat 4 with $8.32
- Hero sitting in seat 7 with $9.90
- CO sitting in seat 8 with $16.86
- Button sitting in seat 9 with $1.80 [Dealer]

UTG posted the small blind - $0.05
UTG+1 posted the big blind - $0.10

** Dealing card to Hero: A /images/graemlins/club.gif, A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG+2 called - $0.10
Hero raised - $0.40
CO called - $0.40
Button folded
SB folded
Villain called - $0.40
UTG+2 called - $0.40

** Dealing the flop: 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif, Q /images/graemlins/club.gif, 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Pot: $1.65

VILLAIN checked
UTG+2 checked
Hero bet - $1.55
CO folded
Villain called - $1.55
UTG+2 folded

** Dealing the turn: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Villain bet - $4.50
Hero ??

Ok, Villain is a rock (tight passive solid) with 20/4/0.8 over 750 hands. His check-call line on the flop seems like a drawing hand to me. Could be either a straight draw or a club draw. If the turn shows a club, I have a redraw on the river for a flush draw.

When he bets on the turn, he goes to showdown about 50% of the time and wins money 90% of the time, so he is usually good for his money so it might be a slowplayed set as well, though I would expect a re-raise on the flop. If we put him on either a OE straight draw (JT) or a gut shot straight draw (KJ or J8) we win about 19% of the time. J8 calling a preflop raise is not too common so we reduce his range. Now we win about 30% of the time. Still not enough to call as we only get 2:1 pot odds. If we include top pair (Qx) in his range we end up about fifty fifty to win this pot.

What’s my line?

1) Fold, why?
2) Call, why?
3) Raise, why? (and how much)

[Archon_Wing]

Given your read, I'd be really inclined to fold. He definitely likes his hand and it seems like he only takes big hands to showdown (90% showdowns! What's the sample size?). I wouldn't call such a player solid, more nitty than such. It's generally not good to get mixed up with such players for huge pots when they show strength with one pair-- it will just not be good enough; he might have AQ, KQ but I don't think so. He called your preflop raise and flop bet, and donked the turn with an almost full sized pot bet. If you call, you'll have a very difficult decision on the river; you'll essentially be pot committed.

As for what he has, I'd be inclined to agree with you that he was probaly on a draw that hit. A slowplayed set is not out of the question either, given his passive tendencies. Players like that often like to slowplay.

You could raise allin, would be better than calling, but I don't think we're ahead.

Oh yea, and make it .50 preflop for that limper.

[RobinX]

When he bets or raises on the turn (about 15% of the time) he goes to showdown about 50% of the time to win money 90%. Total hands on the turn is 131, so sample size for above statement is about 20 hands.

[Archon_Wing]

Ah, so he doesn't really bet unless he really like his hand. (I don't know if the sample is good enough) This makes TP/draw/ much more unlikely. I can definitely rule out a bs bluff, but you never know.

It'd be nice if you could find some other hand histories. Knowing the quality of hand he shows down will help make a better decison

[RobinX]

I have a record of 35 showed hands total for this player.

3x AA
1x AKs (turned a boat)
2x AKo (flush and pair of aces)
1x AQs (pair of aces)
2x AQo (pair of aces and two pair)
2x KK
1x QQ
1x JJ

And some random low/middle pairs, suited connectors and AT broadway cards. He showed down a pair (11/35), two pair (12/35) or better (12/35) so we can ignore a total bluff here.

[Archon_Wing]

Gah. Really looks like a fold. Given that narrow range, it could really be 99 or TT. That turn bet looks like he's trying to protect his hand from draws. I should have asked in the last post, but showing another hand of villain playing would be nice. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[RobinX]

- Hero sitting in seat 1 with $9.75
- UTG +1 sitting in seat 2 with $9.60
- HJ sitting in seat 4 with $1.50
- CO sitting in seat 5 with $9.55
- Button sitting in seat 6 with $11.80 [Dealer]
- Sitting out sitting in seat 8 with $7.48 [Sitting out]
- SB sitting in seat 9 with $9.70
- BB sitting in seat 10 with $8.53

SB posted the small blind - $0.05
BB posted the big blind - $0.10

** Dealing card to Hero: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero raised - $0.40
UTG +1 folded
HJ folded
CO called - $0.40
Button folded
SB folded
BB folded

** Dealing the flop: Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero bet - $0.90
CO called - $0.90

** Dealing the turn: 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero bet - $2.60
CO raised - $5.20
Hero called - $5.20

** Dealing the river: 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero checked
CO went all-in - $3.05
Hero called - $3.05
CO shows: 2 of Clubs, 2 of Diamonds
Hero mucks:
CO wins $18.95 from the main pot

[RobinX]

Above hand is almost identical till the turn. Instead of checking I lead the turn and he reraises and shows down a turned set on the river.

[RobinX]

Some more comments?